Emmy predictions: Presenting the case for a big night for ‘The People v. O.J. Simpson’
Remember when you thought you knew everything you ever wanted to know about the O.J. Simpson trial? And that, under no circumstances, would you ever be inclined to revisit the world of bloody gloves, dancing Itos and slow-speed Ford Bronco freeway chases ever again?
Me neither. The FX limited series “The People v. O.J. Simpson” might be the most surprising television landmark in the history of the medium. No one saw its greatness — or its relevance — coming. But in its wake, you know what is easy to foresee? A dominant night at the Emmys.
Here are my predictions for the Emmy winners in the limited series, TV movie and variety series categories.
LIMITED SERIES
“American Crime”
“Fargo”
“The Night Manager”
“The People v. O.J. Simpson”
“Roots”
Winner: “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
Analysis: “O.J.” received 22 Emmy nominations, including nods for acting, directing, writing, editing and casting. “Fargo” was right behind, earning 18 nominations and, just like “O.J.,” it found favor in all the key categories. All of which is to ask: Shouldn’t this feel like a closer race? That it doesn’t speaks to the manner that “O.J.” permeated the pop culture to a degree that the sublime “Fargo” — arguably a series that was better on a more consistent basis — didn’t.
TV MOVIE
“All the Way”
“Confirmation”
“Luther”
“Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
“A Very Murray Christmas”
Winner: “All the Way”
Analysis: HBO has long dominated this category, having won it nine years running (not counting the three years when the Emmys combined TV movies and limited series). The network has two political entries here — “All the Way,” an electrifying slice of Lyndon B. Johnson history, and “Confirmation,” a rather conventional look at the 1991 Clarence Thomas Supreme Court hearings. “All the Way” won better reviews and more nominations, including the only director nod among the nominees in this category. (The directing, writing and acting categories, among others, combine entrants from both TV movies and limited series.) That makes this an easy call for “All the Way.”
LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Bryan Cranston, “All the Way”
Idris Elba, “Luther”
Tom Hiddleston, “The Night Manager”
Courtney B. Vance, “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
Cuba Gooding, Jr., “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: The Abominable Bride”
Winner: Vance
Analysis: Emmy voters love Cranston, giving him four drama lead actor Emmys for playing all-time antihero Walter White in “Breaking Bad.” And Cranston has already won a Tony for his superb portrayal of LBJ. But Vance captured the spirit of iconic attorney Johnnie Cochran in such a vivid fashion, nailing the courtroom monologues and acing the big, powerful behind-the-scenes moments. He also has the edge of being in a 10-part series (as opposed to a two-hour movie), one that is likely to roll through the ceremony as one of the evening’s biggest winners.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Felicity Huffman, “American Crime”
Lili Taylor, “American Crime”
Kerry Washington, “Confirmation”
Kirsten Dunst, “Fargo”
Audra McDonald, “Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar & Grill”
Sarah Paulson, “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
Winner: Paulson
Analysis: Tina Fey called the Television Academy to change her branch designation from writing to acting. Why? “Just so I could vote for Sterling K. Brown and Sarah Paulson,” she told an audience at the Tribeca Film Festival. So there’s one vote. And Paulson probably earned hundreds more on the March night that the episode “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia” aired, erasing all our preconceived notions of prosecutor Marcia Clark. Paulson humanized Clark with beauty, subtlety and intelligence. There were many good reasons to watch “The People v. O.J. Simpson.” Her work topped the list.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Jesse Plemons, “Fargo”
Bokeem Woodbine, “Fargo”
Hugh Laurie, “The Night Manager”
Sterling K. Brown, “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
David Schwimmer, “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
John Travolta, “The People v. O.J. Simpson”
Winner: Brown
Analysis: Laurie earned six Emmy acting nominations playing the narcissistic doctor on “House” but never won, though he did take two SAG awards and two Golden Globes. His shrewd arms dealer on “The Night Manager” made House look like a puppy dog and would be a fine place to finally reward Laurie for his stellar TV work. But this Emmy likely will go to “O.J.” too, honoring the quiet storm of furor and frustration that Brown brought to conflicted prosecutor Christopher Darden.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOVIE
Melissa Leo, “All the Way”
Regina King, “American Crime”
Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Hotel”
Jean Smart, “Fargo”
Olivia Colman, “The Night Manager”
Winner: Smart
Analysis: Because “Fargo” has to win something, right? And this is one category where it’s not blocked by someone from “O.J.” Smart was terrific as the tough, pipe-smoking crime matriarch trying to balance business with her love and loyalty to her sons. She probably won this Emmy for her fourth episode scene at the crime family sit-down where she said, “The point is don’t assume just because I’m an old woman my back is weak and my stomach is not strong.” Now that’s the art of the deal!
VARIETY TALK SERIES
“Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee”
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
“Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
“The Late Late Show With James Corden”
“Real Time With Bill Maher”
“The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon”
Winner: “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver”
Analysis: In the regrettable absence of “Full Frontal With Samantha Bee,” there’s little choice but to go with the remaining scorched-earth political satire series. Oliver’s show parodies the news so brilliantly that it becomes the news itself immediately after it airs. It’s the one essential series among this year’s nominees and a rightful heir to this Emmy following the 13-year streak in which “The Daily Show” and “The Colbert Report” won.
VARIETY SKETCH SERIES
“Documentary Now!”
“Drunk History”
“Inside Amy Schumer”
“Key & Peele”
“Portlandia”
“Saturday Night Live”
Winner: “Inside Amy Schumer”
Analysis: The variety series category split last year, separating talk and sketch shows. All of last year’s nominees, including the Emmy winner, “Inside Amy Schumer,” are back, along with the clever satirical series “Documentary Now!” It’s a strong category, save for “Saturday Night Live,” which has been mired in mediocrity since Fred Armisen and Bill Hader (who, along with another “SNL” alum, Seth Meyers, created “Documentary Now!”) left in 2013. Schumer might not be as omnipresent as she was last year (how could she be?), but her subversive comedy remained strong enough for her to repeat.
From the Oscars to the Emmys.
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