Gold Standard: Oscar Watch: The categories that will make or break your Oscar pool

We all know Leonardo DiCaprio is going to win an Oscar for the great suffering he endured to survive “The Revenant.” (Have you heard? It was hard making this movie!) And we’d be shocked if we didn’t see Brie Larson (“Room”), Sylvester Stallone (“Creed”) and Alejandro G. Iñarritu (yes, again, for “The Revenant”) on stage, thanking their colleagues/agents/makers for their awards. Voters like them. They really, really like them.

But to win your Oscar pool this year, you’re going to have to burrow a bit deeper (there’s no getting around the short films, sorry) — and correctly guess among “The Big Short,” “Spotlight” and “The Revenant” for best picture.

We’ll have a full slate of predictions up later this week. In the meantime, here’s a cheat sheet on the eight categories that will make or break your Oscar pool.

PICTURE

The journalism drama “Spotlight” grabbed critics’ attention at Telluride and Toronto film festivals and went on to win several critics groups prizes in December. Then “The Big Short” took the Producers Guild honor in January, a big deal because the PGA uses the same preferential voting system as the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Then “Spotlight” won the Screen Actors Guild Awards cast prize and, shortly afterward, “The Revenant” took top honors with the Directors Guild and the British film academy.

This splintered set of prizes has created a scenario in which you can make a justified case for any of the three movies. The fledgling production company Open Road Films has spent heavily on its “Spotlight” campaign, hoping to win its first best picture Oscar. The well-crafted film has prompted the Catholic Church to take a meaningful look at the issue of clerical sexual abuse. For voters who like to reward movies that make a difference, “Spotlight” provides that opportunity.

“The Revenant” would seem to have momentum on its side, an elusive concept to be sure, but one that seems to have an impact on the psychology behind voting. It’s the movie winning the prizes at the time when academy members were voting. And people like to vote for the winner. Researchers call it the “bandwagon effect.” We like to use it as a way of partially explaining why a movie like “The King’s Speech” somehow prevails for best picture.

“The Big Short,” like “Spotlight,” is an issue-oriented movie and because its sickening look at Wall Street shenanigans dovetails with many of the populist issues being raised (mostly by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders) on the presidential campaign trail, it feels provocative and relevant. It’s a jolting call to be vigilant and not allow the 2008 financial apocalypse to happen again. It’s also, of this trio, probably the most entertaining movie, though Paramount has been careful to avoid the “C” word (that’s “comedy” ... what were you thinking?) in its marketing, fearing voters regard it as too lightweight.

The X factor here is the academy’s preferential voting system, which asks voters to rank the movies in order. This year, there are eight best picture nominees. Ballots will be sorted into stacks based on voters’ first choice. PricewaterhouseCoopers accountants will then eliminate the movies, one by one, that have the fewest No. 1 votes, redistributing those ballots to the remaining movies based on second-place and, sometimes, third-place rankings. (The accountants could look even deeper, depending on the ballot’s order and the movies still in the running.) The process ends when one movie has 50% plus one of the total votes.

Why does this matter so much? Because the preferential system rewards consensus choices, movies that show up consistently in the first, second and third spots on voters’ ballots. “The Revenant” is a movie passionately loved by some as, in the words of filmmaker Rod Lurie, “ultra cinema,” and dismissed by others as a revenge movie with pretensions of art. It figures to show up high and low on academy members’ rankings. We wonder, though, if it has enough of those second- and third-place votes needed to win the Oscar.

That’s why we’re going with “The Big Short.” That and we’ve been calling it for Adam McKay’s movie before it won the PGA. It seems silly to change now based on underwhelming evidence. “The Revenant” is probably the safer pick. Enough academy members seem to be willing to reward Iñarritu’s audacious efforts just a year after giving him three Oscars for “Birdman.” But we’ll stick with the underdog.

FILM EDITING

The two leading contenders are Margaret Sixel’s Herculean effort on husband George Miller’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” and Hank Corwin’s lightning-like work on “The Big Short.” Both won honors from the American Cinema Editors last month. Give the slight edge to “Mad Max,” though if Corwin wins, it will be a clear signal of strength for “The Big Short’s” best picture chances.

COSTUME DESIGN

With nods for “Carol” and “Cinderella,” Sandy Powell now has a dozen nominations to go along with her three Oscars. She’ll probably win a fourth this year. Unless voters really want to give “Carol” something (an inclination that, sadly, we’re doubting), she’ll be fitted for a glass slipper for her sparkling work on “Cinderella.” Potential upset: Oscar-winner Jenny Beavan, who took the British film academy’s costume award for “Mad Max.”

SOUND EDITING AND SOUND MIXING

The two sound categories are obviously related, but, more often than not, the Oscars split. Sound editors find and put together everything you hear in a movie; sound mixers determine how an audience hears the assembled work. The mixing award often goes to music-themed movies. (“Whiplash” and “Les Miserables” were recent winners.) The editing Oscar tends to reward whiz-bang, bullet-heavy movies.

It’s possible that “Mad Max: Fury Road” wins both these Oscars, but we like “The Revenant,” which won the sound mixing award Sunday with the Cinema Audio Society, to take the mixing Oscar. “Mad Max” should win editing.

VISUAL EFFECTS

It’s possible “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” takes this Oscar for sheer volume alone. But best picture nominees typically don’t lose in this category to movies that weren’t likewise nominated. That’s why we like “Mad Max: Fury Road.”

ANIMATED SHORT

There are three strong possibilities here: Pixar’s affecting “Sanjay’s Super Team,” the emotionally devastating Chilean short “Bear Story” and Don Hertzfeldt’s wildly inventive “World of Tomorrow.” We’re giving the Hindu heroes of “Sanjay’s Super Team” the slight edge, believing voters will want to reward diversity where they can find it this year.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

All five nominees are deserving, but it’s hard to pick against the high-profile “Body Team 12,” which tells the story of the Ebola crisis through the eyes of a female Red Cross worker. It’s a well-made, eye-opening movie. Beyond that, the filmmakers embedded with an Ebola team. That action alone is going to win a few votes.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

“Ave Maria,” a geopolitical satire about a group of nuns helping Israeli travelers, should receive some votes, as will the gently comic “Stutterer.” But we’re going with “Shok,” a tale of friendship between two Albanian boys during the Kosovo war. Its ending lands a punch to the gut that leaves a lasting impression.

glenn.whipp@latimes.com

@glennwhipp