How Trump could hurt Republican Party for decades

Here’s something for Donald Trump’s unwavering Republican supporters to think about if they ever consider calibrating how much they’re willing to put up with: The fallout from a presidency can last for decades, for good and bad.

In 1984, after a first term marked as much by his friendly disposition and boundless optimism about America as by his policy successes, President Ronald Reagan won first-time voters and voters 29 and under by 20 percentage points — a percentage greater that his 18 percentage point win among the nation as a whole. Reagan’s vice president, George H.W. Bush, won a landslide of his own among young voters in 1988.

As a 1988 New York Times analysis noted, this was a gigantic change of fortunes for Reagan’s Republican Party. “The young voters tracked since 1980 displayed a shift in the way they saw themselves ideologically similar to their shift in party allegiance. In 1980, 28 percent in this group called themselves liberal; the figure dropped to 24 percent in 1984 and 18 percent this year. The proportion of conservatives increased: from 25 percent in 1980 to 27 percent in 1984 and 32 percent in 1988,” wrote reporter E.J. Dionne Jr.

The analysis largely credited this phenomenon to the fact that most young voters had memories of only two presidents: sunny Reagan and dour, unpopular Democrat Jimmy Carter.

This history should very much weigh on Republican Party rank-and-file voters who back President Donald Trump literally no matter what he does. Without their unflagging support, Trump might actually begin to grasp that his trash-and-burn approach to governance — his constant serving up of self-serving falsehoods — his shameless rejection of ethical norms — is no way to run a country. If, in coming presidential elections, the only two presidents that younger voters have direct memories of are smiling Barack Obama and glowering Donald Trump, the dynamic that so helped Republicans in the 1980s and beyond could haunt the GOP — for decades. As Mark Z. Barabak wrote last year in the Los Angeles Times, “Once individuals form their political views ... they tend to stick with that party and support its candidates for the rest of their life.”

So Republicans who take glee in Trump’s harsh attacks on the media — who revel in his coarse baiting of enemies — might want to think twice. While they may enjoy the Trump spectacle, what effect is it having on the children who are watching?

This matters — a lot. As the 1988 New York Times analysis of the Reagan-fueled GOP gains noted, young voters that year who were backing Bush over Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis would often “explain their preference by saying that they do not want to return to the troubles of the Carter years.”

The troubles of the Trump years are different than the troubles of the Carter years. But if history is a guide, Trump’s party will long pay for his sins.

Twitter: @sdutIdeas

Facebook: San Diego Union-Tribune Ideas & Opinion