Essential Politics: Clinton has the lead. Can Trump still catch up?

Two focus groups Tuesday night of women voters in Columbus, Ohio, and Phoenix provided an important reminder about how few details of the presidential campaign actually attract the attention of average voters.

Of the 20 voters in the two groups, most had only vague impressions of the Democratic and Republican conventions. A few knew that Donald Trump had quarreled with the family of a soldier who had died in combat, but they were hazy on the details. Almost none had even general impressions of either vice presidential nominee.

That’s the good news for Trump: The headlines of the past month have passed many voters by in a blur. That’s about the only good news he can cling to, however.

Good afternoon, I’m David Lauter, Washington bureau chief. Welcome to the Friday edition of our Essential Politics newsletter, in which we look at the events of the week in the presidential campaign and highlight some particularly insightful stories.

IS IT OVER?

Political reporters have a deep aversion to calling a race over before the end. We all have memories of campaigns that turned around in the final weeks.

But it’s important to keep in mind that most of those come-from-behind upsets involved races other than presidential contests. Voters pay much less attention to senators or governors — let alone members of the House or state legislators — than they do to presidential candidates. Opinions are far less entrenched.

In presidential contests over the past half century, we do have five examples of close campaigns where the lead changed notably during the final 90 days:

In 1968, Richard Nixon had a big lead going into Labor Day, but Hubert Humphrey battled back, gained support among wavering Democrats and almost caught up.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter had a big lead during the summer, but Gerald Ford gained steadily during the fall and almost won.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan led Jimmy Carter by big margins for most of the summer, but Carter recovered in September and early October before fading at the close.

In 1988, Michael Dukakis led at mid-summer, but George H.W. Bush got a big bounce out of his convention, united his party and never looked back.

In 2000, Al Gore took a lead coming out of the conventions and held it until mid-September, when George W. Bush caught up. In the end, of course, Gore won the popular vote but lost the presidency.

All those campaigns involve a similar dynamic: The candidate of the party in power started out behind, but during the late summer or fall, managed to rally his party’s previously successful political coalition and catch up. In only one of the five cases, in 1988, was the candidate of the incumbent party actually successful, but in all five, they managed to make a race of it.

In this year’s contest, by contrast, it’s the candidate of the party out of power who is trying to catch up. Hillary Clinton not only has a lead, but has all the advantages of political incumbency to help preserve her margin. The task facing Trump is made all the more difficult by the divisions in the GOP, which he has aggravated rather than trying to heal.

Can Trump still turn the contest around? Perhaps. The first candidate debate in September will be an opportunity to reach a lot of those voters who, like the ones at the focus groups, pay only episodic attention to campaigns. But the task ahead of him is a difficult one with no recent precedent.

TRUMP’S STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESS

As our reporters discovered, Trump’s most ardent supporters are sticking with him, despite all the controversy. A lot of what they like about him are things other voters dislike.

At the top of the list of Trump’s strengths and his weaknesses is his blunt, provocative rhetoric. His supporters revel in it. But it defies the conventional view that political candidates need to stick to a single message.

This week, for example, Trump gave a speech about his views on the economy. He managed to stay focused on that for all of about 27 hours before setting off another conflagration — this time with his remark that “2nd Amendment people” might be able to stop Clinton from appointing Supreme Court justices. As Michael Finnegan wrote, Democrats, and some Republicans, immediately accused him of hinting at violence.

Trump’s remark was an example of how he has gotten in the way of his own efforts to reach the voters he needs to persuade, Cathy Decker wrote.

Don’t miss Lisa Mascaro’s richly detailed profile of Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

Decker also took a look at Ohio, a must-win state for the GOP, where Trump’s potential remains strong, but where his problems may prove stronger.

Which Republicans are running with Trump, and which are running away? Check out our comprehensive list.

CLINTON’S PROMISES — AND HER EMAILS

Clinton has made a lot of promises. Which will be the top priorities if she wins? As Evan Halper wrote, advocates are doing their utmost to make sure their issue lands on the short list.

Meanwhile, however, Clinton’s past emails keep getting in her way, as Halper and Del Wilber reported.

One issue for Clinton’s campaign continues to be consolidating support among voters who backed Sen. Bernie Sanders in the primaries. Sanders wrote an Op-Ed urging his supporters to get over their disappointment and back Clinton.

We asked readers to weigh in. Share what you think about Hillary Clinton.

PLUS, TAXES

Clinton on Friday released her tax returns, along with 10 years of returns for running mate Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine. We’re going through them now and will be posting live on Trail Guide.

An early glance shows the Clintons each earned less on speaking engagements, an issue that has surfaced throughout the campaign. The release from the campaign pointedly notes the Clintons have made their tax returns public “for every year dating back to 1977,” keeping up another drumbeat Team Clinton has been leading: calls for Trump to release his returns.

FOLLOW OUR TRACKING POLL

The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times tracking poll has been tracing Trump’s sharp decline over the past week. The poll shows a tighter race than many other surveys. Why is it different? I run through several of the reasons. You can always get a snapshot of the race by checking out the top of our politics page.

DON’T FORGET THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The popular vote is all very well — just ask Gore — but gaining the presidency requires winning enough states to get 270 electoral votes. How to get there? We’ve updated the electoral map with our best estimates. Now you get to play political strategist and try out as many scenarios as you like.

QUESTIONS ABOUT TRUMP, CLINTON? WE’VE GOT ANSWERS

Where they stand on issues, what they’ve done in their lives, their successes, their failures, what their presidencies might look like: We’ve been writing about Clinton and Trump for years, and we’ve pulled the best of that content together to make finding what you want to know easier. So check out All Things Trump and All Things Clinton.

WHAT WE’RE READING

Many GOP officials seem to hope that if Trump loses, they can simply turn the page and return to the status quo. That may be unrealistic, Ron Brownstein writes in the Atlantic. Like Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, Trump could prove to be a losing candidate who ultimately reshapes his party, he wrote.

LOGISTICS

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That wraps up this week. My colleague Christina Bellantoni will be back Monday with the weekday edition of Essential Politics. Until then, keep track of all the developments in the 2016 campaign with our Trail Guide, at our Politics page and on Twitter @latimespolitics.

Send your comments, suggestions and news tips to politics@latimes.com.

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