Newsletter: Essential Politics: Listening in on voters in their living rooms

I’m Christina Bellantoni. Welcome to today’s Essential Politics.

Political journalists often want to be a fly on the wall as voters in swing states debate upcoming elections in the privacy of their homes. David Lauter had a chance this week to observe focus groups of women in Phoenix and Columbus, Ohio, discuss the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

The forum provided some vivid examples of how Trump has been losing support of late, including a telling answer of which Olympic sport would best suit the GOP nominee.

“He’s crazy,” says one.

“He kind of acts like a 2-year-old,” says another. “I have a 2-year-old. I see the similarities.”

Asked to predict who will win the election, 18 of the 20 participants made the same call: Clinton.

We also took a look at several important battleground states where Clinton has widened her lead over Trump — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. Industrial states like those could be Trump’s best chance at the presidency, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on them.

Economic messages are likely to be the ones with most resonance for those voters, which is one reason why, when campaigning in far southwest Virginia on Wednesday, Trump proclaimed Clinton is a “horror show” for coal mining.

Clinton on Wednesday suggested Trump’s “2nd Amendment” comments earlier in the week were a “casual inciting of violence” that makes him unfit to serve as president.

That dustup has settled down for the moment, and the thing captivating attention Wednesday was a man attempting to scale Trump Tower in New York.

Get the latest from the campaign trail on Trail Guide and follow @latimespolitics. Check our daily USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll at the top of the politics page.

SUSPENSE IN SACRAMENTO: THE DAY BILLS LIVE OR DIE

Hundreds of proposed laws, covering everything from human trafficking to whether California should ditch daylight saving time, will face a huge hurdle today at the state Capitol.

It’s called the appropriations suspense file. And bills that don’t get removed from that file -- a holding spot for bills that will cost the state money -- are dead for 2016.

As John Myers reports, the decisions made about which bills live or die are some of the least transparent in the legislative process. No explanation is given for bills that are “held” in the appropriations committee, and no recorded voice vote is taken.

We’ll have a full roundup of the biggest decisions as they’re made -- especially on issues related to climate change, housing and elections. Be sure to keep an eye on our Essential Politics news feed all day Thursday.

FOLLOW WHAT YOU CARE ABOUT IN SACRAMENTO

As the California Legislature heads into its last frantic weeks, the politics team put together snapshots of the 10 biggest issues legislators are considering and will track where they are in the legislative process.

Among them are decisions about whether to toughen up sex crime sentences, a reaction to the former Stanford University student who was sentenced to six months in jail for sexual assault. At the same time, legislators are deciding whether to loosen up on Internet poker by making it legal and regulating the game in certain establishments. Another big issue we’re very interested in: efforts to further regulate medical marijuana just ahead of a November ballot measure that could legalize recreational marijuana throughout the state.

As things progress, we’ll be tracking the current status of particular pieces of legislation, and explaining the backstory behind each as opponents and proponents of the issues maneuver in Sacramento. Follow along with us.

WARY LAWMAKERS WANT MORE OVERSIGHT OVER A CLIMATE CHANGE AGENCY

A familiar boogeyman has emerged in the debate over extending California’s climate change targets, Liam Dillon reports. Similar to previous discussions over major climate legislation, lawmakers in the state Assembly are pushing for more authority over the California Air Resources Board, the agency in charge of setting climate regulations and spending money generated by the greenhouse gas reduction efforts. Some assemblymembers say their demands are deal-breakers for their votes to continue the climate change program.

MAYORS PUSH FOR CLIMATE LAW

A group of mayors, including Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles, is voicing its support for extending the state’s climate policies in a new letter. The next test for the legislation will be the Assembly Appropriations Committee on Thursday, and there are signs that there isn’t enough political support to push it through the Legislature this year.

BIG HAUL FOR BALLOT INITIATIVES

Through early August, campaigns to support or oppose propositions on the Nov. 8 statewide ballot have collected almost $200 million, according to campaign finance reports.

And for the past few weeks, the pace of fundraising appears to have risen dramatically. Sophia Bollag and Myers reviewed daily campaign disclosures and found more than $72 million in contributions since July 1. Most of that money has poured into campaigns concerning marijuana legalization, tax hike extensions and drug price regulation.

TODAY’S ESSENTIALS

-- Trump called President Obama “the founder of ISIS” at a rally in Florida.

-- Here’s how to tell if Trump is doing his own tweeting.

-- Faced with intense opposition from religious colleges in California, a state senator backtracked from a proposal that would have allowed gay and transgender students to more easily sue private universities for discrimination if they are disciplined for violating church teachings.

-- Democratic legislative leaders said Wednesday they are renewing a push to expand California’s family leave law, an effort stymied earlier in the year when the proposal was surprisingly killed in an Assembly committee.

-- California legislators on Wednesday gave the green light to formal audits of several parts of state government, including UC President Janet Napolitano’s office and Gov. Jerry Brown’s ambitious plan to build underground water tunnels through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta region.

-- What do you think of Clinton? We want to hear from you.

-- Who will win the November election? Give our Electoral College map a spin.

LOGISTICS

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