Trump wins Round 1 in a test of wills with Congress

The first test of wills of the nascent Donald Trump administration played out this week, and the president-elect emerged the winner.

The immediate object of the struggle was Trump’s choice as secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, currently the chief executive of Exxon Mobile.

But the larger context is a fight that has only just begun over the direction of U.S. foreign policy for the next four years, specifically Washington’s relationship with it’s longtime adversary, Moscow.

Good afternoon, I’m David Lauter, Washington bureau chief. Welcome to the Friday edition of our Essential Politics newsletter, in which we look at the events of the week in the presidential transition and highlight some particularly insightful stories.

TRUMP DOESN’T BACK DOWN

As soon as Trump began indicating interest in Tillerson for the State Department job, a faction of Republican senators, led by Sen. John McCain of Arizona, began to signal objections.

The stakes are high because the argument isn’t really about Tillerson, himself, so much as it is about Trump’s desire to shift U.S. foreign policy to be closer to Russia. Opponents haven’t seriously challenged Tillerson’s personal qualifications, instead they are focused on him as a symbol of a proposed change in policy.

Trump’s desire for better relations with Vladimir Putin’s government is made more fraught by the mounting evidence of Russian efforts to interfere with the U.S. election, starting with the theft and subsequent publishing of emails from the Democratic National Committee and senior aides to Hillary Clinton.

This week, President Obama ordered a full review of Russian hacking during the election. And tensions mounted between Trump and the CIA over intelligence showing that the Russian efforts were deliberately targeted at helping him.

With that issue looming, Trump might have wanted to avoid a confirmation fight that will center on relations with Moscow. Incoming presidents weigh many factors in deciding whom to tap for Cabinet positions. The prospect of a messy confirmation battle is often enough to sink a potential nominee.

Choosing someone else might have fit the usual Washington pattern. Trump fit his own pattern: He doubled down.

Rather than switch, he sped up his decision, announcing Tillerson as his choice before the opposition could grow stronger.

That decision sent a powerful message — that on foreign policy, at least, Trump intends to have his own way and won’t easily yield to lawmakers who disagree with him.

Now the question will be how hard a fight McCain and other advocates of a tough line against Moscow, including Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida, intend to put up.

In theory, only a few Republican defections could be enough to defeat Tillerson since the GOP has only a slim majority in the Senate. But that would only be true if all Democrats voted against him, which probably won’t be the case. Already, some Democrats from pro-Trump states, such as Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, have indicated support for the nominee, giving Trump an important cushion.

Moreover, Democratic leaders, who doubt the Republicans will have the votes to defeat Tillerson, have largely left the fight to McCain.

Democrats plan to concentrate most of their efforts on opposing Trump’s picks for domestic positions.

Rep. Tom Price of Georgia, Trump’s choice for Health and Human Services, is likely to be a top target because of his proposals for big changes in Medicare benefits. Betsy DeVos, the designated Education secretary, could also be a top Democratic target because of her advocacy of giving tax money to families to spend on private schools, her strong opposition to same-sex marriage and vulnerabilities in her record, including a huge, unpaid fine levied against one of her political committees for campaign finance violations in Ohio.

ON DOMESTIC POLICY, A DIFFERENT STORY, PERHAPS

As Noah Bierman and Evan Halper wrote, Trump’s Cabinet picks are among the most conservative in history. Price, DeVos and other conservative nominees are bringing long-held agendas with them that, in some cases, run contrary to pledges that Trump made in his campaign.

Trump aides insist that the nominees will carry out the president’s agenda, not their own. But given Trump’s well documented aversion to policy details, how that will play out is very much an open question.

One early test will come on Obamacare, where, Noam Levey reported, GOP leaders are charging forward with repeal, despite an almost complete lack of allies in any part of the healthcare industry — from insurers to patient advocacy groups. The political risk is that if things go wrong, the GOP will have no one to back them up.

Trump’s statements on healthcare have often seemed more moderate than the GOP’s plans, but if he has any intentions to intervene, he has yet to show them.

Another key issue will be immigration, where one of the first issues for the new president will be what to do with the so-called Dreamers — people brought to the U.S. illegally as children. As Lisa Mascaro wrote, Trump once welcomed a visit from a group of Dreamers and said they had convinced him about their plight. Now, they anxiously await his next move.

Environmental issues will be another flash point. Trump made some key picks in that area this week. As William Yardley wrote, Ryan Zinke, Trump’s choice for Interior secretary, has an interestingly eclectic record. Environmental groups oppose his positions on oil drilling, mining and many other issues. But he has also opposed the GOP platform’s call for giving control of public lands to the states.

On climate change, Zinke’s position appears more moderate than that of Rick Perry, the designee for the Department of Energy, who once famously couldn’t remember that the department was among the three that he was proposing to eliminate.

Meantime, the president-elect continues to woo some major industries while bashing others. Silicon Valley got the charm treatment this week when top executives went to Trump Tower, Halper and David Pierson wrote. That was a relief to them, given the worries that their widespread opposition to Trump during the campaign would bring retribution.

Other companies have not been so lucky. Trump’s approach has big companies on edge, especially his advocacy of big tariffs and his way of making disputes personal, Don Lee wrote.

POLITICAL TENSIONS STILL HIGH

Trump continues to use his massive following on Twitter to make false statements that fire up his base, provoke opponents and distract from larger issues, Cathy Decker wrote.

Democrats, meantime, have been obsessing about the electoral college, which will formally cast its votes on Monday, and talking about ways Trump might trip up. David Savage wrote a good explanatory piece about one obscure constitutional provision, the Emoluments Clause, which has gotten a lot of attention lately.

In Washington, the Trumpification of the city already has begun, Bierman reported. Residents wonder how the new president, who got only 4% of the vote in the capital, will change the city.

And in North Carolina, one of the nation’s most politically divided states, the election feels like it never ended. This week, GOP lawmakers called a special legislative session to drain power from the governor after Democrat Roy Cooper was finally declared the winner of the state’s election.

LOGISTICS

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That wraps up this week. My colleague Christina Bellantoni will be back Monday with the weekday edition of Essential Politics. Until then, keep track of all the developments in the transition and in California politics with our Trail Guide, at our Politics page and on Twitter @latimespolitics.

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