Racing! Let’s dig into some research

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we reveal what Anoakia really means.

We hate to get too academic on you but a study just out from the University of Louisville’s equine industry program did a deep dive into what drives handle. I can’t say any of this is a surprise but validates things we already thought we knew.

Steven Vickner, an associate professor at the school, and Steve Koch, executive director of the NTRA’s safety & integrity alliance, studied 1,515 races over 165 race days from 2011 at Woodbine Racetrack in Canada.

Now, it seems as if Churchill Downs might be a better study location for a project by the University of Louisville, but I’m guessing that Koch being the former vice president of racing at Woodbine was probably the driving force in picking a track.

What the study concluded was the biggest factor in driving handle is field size. It makes total sense and it’s why Stronach racing boss Tim Ritvo declared field size as his biggest priority. I took a quick look at the exacta and trifecta pools at Santa Anita from last Monday. The largest combined pool of those two verticals was a nine-horse field in the 10^th race of $275,206. The smallest was the four horse second race of $50,906.

If you take the average of the four races with six horses it comes to $129,284 in the combined exacta and trifecta pools. If you average the four races with eight, nine or 10 horses it was $225,779.

Again, nothing you already know and intuitively, if you have more number combinations, you are likely to have more bets.

The Louisville study also came up with some other conclusions.

--There is a point of lessening value when you keep adding horses. In other words, the increase you might have when you add a seventh horse is going to be greater than the increase you will have when you add an eight horse. Looking at their graph, things start to flatten out somewhere between seven and eight horses. Or to put it one more way, the 14^th horse is not going to bring in much more handle than the 13^th horse.

--Restricted races, in this case Ontario-breds, have a negative impact on handle but that is offset by the increase with larger fields. Bringing this home, and I’m just guessing at these numbers, a 10-horse Cal-bred race may not have more handle than a seven-race field in a non-restricted race.

--I’m just going to quote this finding, because I really don’t know what it means. “Handle exhibited positive yet diminishing returns to race quality where outlier major stakes race events are controlled for separately in the econometric model.”

--Races taken off the turf have a huge negative factor that goes beyond the negatives from smaller field sizes.

--And finally, races broadcast on a delay are harmful to total wagering. Very interesting but something the folks at TVG live with every day. It’s why the network slavishly adheres to its contract of always showing some tracks live even if it’s in the incredibly annoying split-screen mode.

So, you probably knew a lot of this anecdotally, but now there is some research behind it.

Santa Anita review

Remember what we wrote up top about how handle is impacted by races coming off the turf? Well, on Saturday because of a heavy downpour in the morning, Santa Anita moved all five of its turf races to the dirt, including the feature, the $100,000 California Distaff Handicap for Cal-bred fillies and mares going five furlongs.

The winner, Love a Honeybadger was supposed to make her turf debut, but moving it to the dirt made it a familiar scenario for her. She led every step of the way and showed some real grit down the stretch to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Love a Honeybadger paid $6.80, $4.00 and $3.40 for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Tiago Pereira. S Y Sky was second and Family Girl was third.

“I felt a little more confident when it came off the grass,” Miller said. “We thought she’d like the grass, but we know she likes the dirt. She’s a real fast filly and tries hard every time. She’s best when she can get the lead and it looked like we were the fastest in the race.”

Pereira agreed with his trainer.

“She’s a nice filly,” Pereira said. “I won a couple on her when Brian Koriner had her and I want to thank Pete for staying with me.”

Santa Anita preview

It’s an average nine race card for a Sunday at Santa Anita with one minor stakes races. Post time is 12:30 p.m. There are only three turf races, two of them down the hill.

The feature is the $75,000 Anoakia Stakes for 2-year-old fillies going six furlongs. So, who or what is Anoakia? First hint, it’s not a horse. Anoakia is a 50-room mansion built by Arcadia founder and first mayor Elias Jackson (Lucky) Baldwin.

In 1999, Richard Winton of the Times described it this way: “It’s Arcadia’s own version of Tara, a little tatty but still complete with wood-paneled rooms, a bowling alley turned library and a huge gymnasium that resembles the Parthenon.”

The name is a combination of daughter Anita and the oaks that were once on the property. It’s off of, you guessed it, Baldwin.

OK, back to the racing. The favorite, at 6-5, is Chasing Yesterday for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. The filly won her first race and finished seventh in a Grade 1 at Saratoga. Smith was the rider, but got off to ride It’sjustanillusion, who is the 8-5 second choice. She has run only one race, a maiden special she won by 2 ¾. Jerry Hollendorfer is the trainer. The race should go about 2:45 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 7, 7, 8, 5, 8, 9, 7, 9.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Woodbine (3): Grade 3 $125,000 Ontario Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Lookin to Strike ($10.00)

Thistledown (5): $150,000 Best of Ohio Sprint Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Altissimo ($3.60)

Thistledown (6): $150,000 John W. Galbreath Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Drillit ($6.20)

Woodbine (7): Grade 2 $250,000 Nearctic Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Winner: Hembree ($20.00)

Thistledown (7): $150,000 Juvenile Stakes, Ohio-bred 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Winner: Diamond Dust ($7.40)

Belmont (8): $100,000 Floral Park Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Winner: Fire Key ($16.60)

Thistledown (8): $150,000 Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Winner: Mo Don’t No ($2.80)

Belmont (9): $200,000 Pebble Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Stella di Camelot ($19.60)

Keeneland (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Rushing Fall ($2.80)

Thistledown (9): $150,000 Best of Ohio Distaff Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Takechargedelilah ($9.80)

Woodbine (9): Grade 1 $800,000 Pattison Canadian International, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Winner: Desert Encounter ($18.20)

Woodbine (10): Grade 1 $500,000 E.P. Taylor Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Winner: Skeikha Reika ($14.10)

Santa Anita (8): $100,000 California Distaff Handicap, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Winner: Love a Honeybadger ($6.80)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

12:32 Woodbine (6): $100,000 Ruling Angel Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Win the War (8-5)

2:18 Belmont: $100,000 Point of Entry Stakes, NY-breds 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Secret Passage (4-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 9 Afleet Ascent (9-2)

Sophomore colt from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn comes off a pair of good runner-up efforts going long at Del Mar and now cuts back in distance to come down the hillside course. He is proven over the layout, has good tactical speed and is drawn favorably outside under Kent Desormeaux.

Saturday’s result: Tapitha Bonita ran into a buzz saw but was clearly second best in the fifth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 6 Roses For All (3-1)

She has the most right to improve with the significant class drop while only making her third lifetime start. In last fourth-place try four weeks ago after an 18-week layoff, she checked solidly near the 1/16-pole when bothered by a rival who drifted in front of her. Her jockey/trainer combo of Vinnie Bednar and Scott Willoughby have been doing exceptionally well over the past month.

Final thoughts

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

JUST KIDDING had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the second turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch and drew off under some urging. ELWOOD J had speed outside foes then angled in and dueled alongside the winner, was roused leaving the second turn, continued off the rail in the stretch and just held second. BROKEN UP chased inside then was taken three deep on the backstretch, continued three wide on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. DEDICATED TO YOU between foes early, stalked a bit off the rail then inside into and on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. POPYHOWUSPELCUPCAK three deep early, stalked outside a rival then between foes on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. SHIRL'S READY angled in outside a rival early, settled just off the rail then inside on the backstretch and second turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and lacked a further response.

WE WILL RE JOYCE had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back when momentarily headed in upper stretch, regained the advantage in midstretch under urging and inched away late. CIAO LUNA angled in and dueled outside the winner, briefly put a head in front in upper stretch, battled alongside that rival until the final stages and just held second. TWISTED ROSIE stalked outside a rival then between foes on the backstretch and into the turn, came out leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and just missed the place. ATREVIDA was close up stalking the pace off the rail then three deep between foes, continued outside a rival on the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. BRAGGING RIGHTS three deep early, settled off the rail then a bit off the fence, went around a rival into the stretch and did not rally. MONGOLIAN RAHY a step slow to begin, went up inside to stalk the pace, steadied in tight into the turn to fall back some, continued inside and weakened. SEA GLASS stalked outside then four wide on the backstretch and into the turn, continued outside, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened.

ARROWSPHERE dueled three deep then outside a rival nearing the turn and between foes on the bend, took the lead outside the runner-up in the stretch and inched away in the final sixteenth under urging. DON'T PASS went up inside to duel for the lead, fought back on the turn and until past midstretch and just held second. GONE TO TOWN saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch and just missed the place. COPPER FEVER stalked outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch, bid three wide on the turn and into the stretch and was outkicked in the final furlong. LETHAL LEGACY allowed to settle off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. JABBER NOW had good early speed and dueled between horses then stalked between foes leaving the backstretch and outside a rival on the turn, gave way in the stretch and was eased in the final furlong.

CRUEL INTENTION had good early speed and dueled inside, inched clear on the turn, was pushed along to widen in the stretch and drew off under a tap of the whip nearing the sixteenth pole and steady handling then a long hold late. TEACHER'S TREASURE stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued just off the rail leaving the turn, drifted to the inside in the stretch and was clearly second best. UNUSUAL ANGEL hesitated to be away slowly, settled a bit off the rail, drifted inward in upper stretch, came out again and just edged a rival for the show. SPENDAHOLIC stalked a bit off the rail then inside into and on the turn and into the stretch and was edged late for third. PEEDIE dueled outside the winner then stalked just off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and gave way in the drive.

MO SEE CAL had good early speed a bit off the rail, set the pace between foes leaving the first turn then just off the inside, kicked clear on the second turn, drifted in and drew off in the stretch under a couple left handed cracks of the whip and a long hold late. TAPITHA BONITA went up inside to press the pace leaving the first turn then stalked along the rail to the stretch and was clearly second best. SAPPHIRE KID between horses early, settled a bit off the rail, came out in the stretch and picked up the show. THALIA three deep into the first turn, angled in and stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail, found the inside entering the stretch and weakened. X S GOLD four wide into the first turn, bid three deep leaving that turn then stalked outside a rival, continued off the rail then alongside a foe leaving the second turn and gave way. TABITHA BONITA wore calks.

QUEEN SHELLY ANN stalked five wide then outside on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted out some from the whip in the drive but rallied under urging to get up outside foes in the final stride. WHATA FLIRT close up stalking the pace four wide between horses then off the rail, on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and went up between foes late. CHEYENNE DANCER dueled between horses then inside on the turn, inched away midway on the bend, kicked clear along the rail nearing the stretch and was caught in the last stride. LUCKY HAND chased between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn and outside a rival into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. TRUE MARTHA dueled three deep then outside the winner early on the turn, stalked just off the rail leaving the turn, drifted in some in the stretch and weakened. VENICE saved ground chasing the pace, came out in midstretch and could not summon the necessary response. CHARMING ALEXIS sent inside to press the pace, stalked along the rail on the turn and weakened in the drive. OMERTA chased between horses on the backstretch, dropped back off the rail on the turn and gave way. YES VIRGINIA pushed open the front of the gate when fractious but did not come out, chased four wide between foes into the turn, dropped back, angled in and gave way then was eased in the stretch.

COCO KISSES had good early speed and dueled inside, kicked clear on the turn, opened up a bit off the rail in the stretch then drifted in and held under a strong hand ride. INTO RISSA hesitated then broke inward and slowly, settled off the pace inside, came out in upper stretch and gained the place. LOVELY FINISH dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and just held third between rivals late. ABSOLUTELY PERFECT stalked three deep, continued outside on the turn and four wide into the stretch and was edged for the show. PAPRIKA close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail then inside, continued along the rail on the turn and in the stretch and was edged for a minor award. SMOOVIE dueled three deep on the backstretch, stalked outside a rival on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. ENCOUNTRESS broke inward and slowly, settled just off the rail to the stretch and was not a threat. TRIBAL ANN stalked between horses, dropped back under urging on the turn, swung out four wide into the stretch and gave way.

LOVE A HONEYBADGER had speed outside rivals then angled in, set a pressured pace a bit off the rail, inched away leaving the turn, fought back when challenged again in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. S Y SKY angled in and stalked just off the inside then came out leaving the backstretch and bid outside the winner, stalked leaving the turn, bid again in the stretch and could not quite match that one late. FAMILY GIRL stalked four wide then three deep, continued outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and held third. MEET AND GREET was in a good position stalking the pace between foes, continued a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. LATE 'N LEFT chased three deep then four wide into and out of the turn and could not offer the necessary late kick. HAILEY RACHELE saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and in the stretch and weakened. ISMELUCKY settled outside a rival then off the rail on the turn and did not rally. HOW ABOUT ZERO broke a bit slowly, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and lacked a response in the stretch.

TWO FIFTY COUP had good early speed outside a rival then inched clear leaving the backstretch, set the pace a bit off the rail and drew away under urging in the stretch. REDROCK TRAIL stalked between horses then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and edged foe for the place. SAMURAI JACK prompted the pace inside the winner then stalked along the rail on the backstretch and turn, continued inside and was edged for second. MAGIC BRO chased off the rail then angled in a bit off the fence on the turn and lacked the needed rally. MR. CLASS stalked three deep then off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. JONATHANTOQUICK broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled inside, saved ground on the turn and improved position in the stretch. LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR also broke a bit slowly then was bumped early, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out on the turn and four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. EMPIRICAL DATA stalked outside then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. WARRENSDIRTYDANCER close up stalking the pace three deep then outside a rival, continued just off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch and also weakened. NATIONS HOPE bumped early, settled outside a rival then just off the rail leaving the turn and was not a threat. SILENT MUSKETIER angled in outside rivals then alongside a foe on the backstretch then off the rail on the turn and lacked a response in the drive. BONSAIL TREASURE saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back in the stretch and weakened.

LIGHTNING DOVE stalked outside a rival then between foes, continued alongside a rival on the turn, came out in midstretch ,rallied under urging to the front in deep stretch and proved best. TYFOSHA angled in and dueled between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn, inched clear into the stretch, drifted to the inside in the drive and was overtaken in deep stretch. WELL HELLO chased off the rail then three deep, bid three wide on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted in and just held third. SNAKED angled in and dueled three deep then between foes on the turn, also drifted inward in the stretch and was edged for the show. CLEARLY GONE settled a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch, went around a rival in upper stretch then angled back in and lacked the needed rally. DEMIGODDESS chased inside then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. MEDIA TONE angled in and pressed the pace inside then stalked along the rail on the turn and weakened in the drive.