Racing! Jon White’s first Kentucky Derby poll is here

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we finally get on a normal racing week.

The worst part of the end of the Triple Crown season is we no longer get Jon White’s weekly previews of the Kentucky Derby and beyond. Well, Jon is back and starting his report earlier than ever. Couldn’t be more delighted. Jon is a racing historian, morning-line maker at Santa Anita and one of the smartest guys I know. So, let’s see what he has to say in this kickoff edition of his Kentucky Derby Top 10.

“The first steps on the 2019 Road to the Kentucky Derby have now been taken. The Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 1 and the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita last Saturday were the first two 2019 races that offered points toward a starting berth in this year's Run for the Roses.

“The Road to the Kentucky Derby is a 35-race series that awards points to the top four finishers in each race. The horses to accumulate the most points in those 35 races earn their way into the big race on May 4. The field for the Kentucky Derby has been capped at 20 since 1975.

“The Jerome and Sham each offered 10 points for a win, four for second, two for third and one for fourth.

“Churchill Downs has announced that the purse for this year's Kentucky Derby has been raised to $3 million. This represents an increase of $1 million from last year's renewal. The winner this year will receive $1.86 million.

“Now that a couple of the 2019 races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby have been decided, here are five questions early in the year to chew on:

“Will there be another Triple Crown winner this year? It certainly is not out of the question, especially considering how Triple Crowns seem to come in clusters. There were three in the 1930s (Gallant Fox, Omaha and War Admiral), four in the 1940s (Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Assault and Citation) and three in the 1970s (Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed). After a long drought, there now have been two Triple Crown winners during this decade (American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018).

“If there is another Triple Crown winner in 2019, will Bob Baffert be the trainer? This seems a distinct possibility. Baffert, after all, certainly knows how to train a horse to win the Triple Crown, having done so with American Pharoah and Justify. But if there does happen to be another Triple Crown sweep this year, who knows? Maybe someone besides Baffert will get it done.

“If Baffert does not win another Triple Crown this year, will he at least get another Kentucky Derby victory? There appears to be a pretty good chance of that due to the strong hand Baffert currently is holding, headed by a pair of undefeated colts, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner and Los Alamitos Futurity winner Improbable. Those two colts head a Baffert contingent that could give the Hall of Fame trainer yet another Kentucky Derby victory. Baffert has five Kentucky Derby wins to his credit (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, American Pharoah and Justify). Ben Jones' six wins (Laurin, Whirlaway, Pensive, Citation, Ponder, Hill Gail) is the record for most Kentucky Derby victories by a trainer.

“Is yet another favorite going to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby? Six straight favorites have won (Orb in 2013, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Nyquist in 2016, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018). Such a run of winning favorites is astounding, especially when such a big field is something that always has the potential to get a favorite beat. After a string of six straight winning favorites, could this be a year in which the winner turns out to be someone like 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 or 50-1 Mine That Bird in 2009?

“Will this year's Kentucky Derby winner be based in California? Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners (I'll Have Another in 2012, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Nyquist in 2016 and Justify in 2018) have been based in the Golden State. The two exceptions during this period were based in Florida (Orb in 2013 and Always Dreaming in 2017). Thus, it seems reasonable to think that the 2019 Kentucky Derby winner probably will be based in either California or Florida.

“Here are the first rankings of 2019:

1. Game Winner (based in California; trained by Baffert)

2. Improbable (based in California, trained by Baffert)

3. Instagrand (based in California, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer)

4. Maximus Mischief (based in Florida; trained by Butch Reid)

5. Mucho (based in Florida; trained by Bill Mott)

6. Vekoma (based in Florida; trained by George Weaver)

7. Network Effect (based in Florida; trained by Chad Brown)

8. Mucho Gusto (based in California; trained by Baffert)

9. Signalman (based in Florida; trained by Ken McPeek)

10. Mihos (based in Florida; trained by Jimmy Jerkens)

No. 1 Game Winner had his first recorded workout of the year Wednesday morning at Santa Anita, three furlongs in :35.20 seconds. Daily Racing Form's Steve Andersen reported that Baffert timed Game Winner galloping out four furlongs in :47.20.

No. 2 Improbable also had a workout Wednesday at Santa Anita. He worked three furlongs in :38.00 for Baffert.

No. 6 Mucho Gusto stepped five furlongs in 1:02.00 in a Thursday workout for Baffert.

Next of the 35 races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Jan. 19.

Santa Anita review

Thursday’s feature was a lot closer than the 3 ¼ length margin, but Show It N Moe It battled S Y Sky for most of the race until drawing away in deep stretch to win the 6 ½ furlong allowance for Cal-bred fillies and mares. The purse was $67,000.

Show It N Moe It paid $6.00, $2.40 and $2.20 for trainer Gary Sherlock and jockey Rafael Bejarano. S Y Sky was second and Coco Kisses was third.

“She needed to win a race,” Sherlock told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “The time off did her good and she was training great, and she ran like it.”

Santa Anita preview

Another nine-race weekday card starting at 12:30 p.m. There are six dirt races averaging 6.5 starters and three turf races with a whopping 9.7, not counting the five also eligibles. Only reason we’re looking is to see if there are any ripples of (smartly) going to an all-dirt card on Sunday because of the weather.

There are three allowance/optional claimers, so we’ll pick the eighth as the feature because the purse, at $59,000 is $2,000 more than the other two. It’s for fillies and mares 4 and up going a mile on the dirt.

The favorite, at 6-5, is Mo See Cal, no doubt an homage to Cal Worthington mixed with an Uncle Mo sire. Peter Miller and Rockingham Ranch picked up the filly from Doug O’Neill and Paul Reddam for a $25,000 claim price on June 17. She finished second that day, then second in her next race and has since won three in a row. And, Mike Smith will ride.

There are two second choices, at 7-2, in Just a Smidge and Danuska’s My Girl. Just a Smidge is coming off a win for Bob Baffert and Assael Espinoza and Danuska’s My Girl is coming off a win for Jerry Hollendorfer and Giovanni Franco. Pretty good when half the field is coming off a victory.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 5, 10 (1 also eligible), 6, 7, 9, 6, 10 (4 ae).

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 9 Vantastic (5-2)

Everything looks right for a top effort by this sophomore colt from the Peter Eurton stable. Improving numbers, route-to-sprint angle coming down the hillside turf course, tactical speed from the outside box and a top jockey in Flavien Prat. There won't be much value betting to win so let's key Vantastic over the three European imports (Urban Light, Boa Nova and Eagle Song) in the exacta and trifecta.

Thursday’s result: Emmy and I did not get the anticipated lone front-running trip we envisioned but it didn't matter as she was out of gas turning for home in a very weak effort.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Trainer Jesus Nunez starts the weekend’s action one win away from becoming the 19th trainer in Los Alamitos history to reach 500 quarter-horse victories. Nunez will saddle two on Friday night. In the fourth race, he’ll send out the 3-year-old filly Firebrand, who is 12-1 on the morning line. Nunez will also saddle Eagles Policy, who is part of a very competitive seventh race on Friday. The gelding is the fourth choice at 7-2. Friday’s first post is 7 p.m.

“In 2018, Nunez saddled Jess Ravin to victory in the Grade 1 Mildred Vessels Memorial Handicap. The trainer also saddled the champion Buccaneer Beach to victory in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Championship in 2004. In his career, Nunez has won nine graded stakes and 22 total stakes. He’s also won 366 races Thoroughbred races at Los Alamitos and has been this track’s leading trainer with the breed each of the past two years.

“Grade 1 stakes winner Mickey Ward and six-time stakes winner Joe Legacy are among the eight runners that will face off in the $20,000 Barbra B Handicap at 550 yards on Sunday. Trained by Matt Fales, Mickey Ward won the Grade 1 Cox Distance Challenge Championship at 870 yards on Nov. 17, which is one of his two career stakes wins around the turn. The 8-year-old gelding has been a winner at 550 yards as well and has twice won at this distance at Los Alamitos, including 3/4 length victory last year.

“Joe Legacy is as hard-knocking as they come. A multiple stakes winner at Los Alamitos, the 8-year-old gelding by Brookstone Bay won the 2014 John Ward Handicap and then, after a two-year layoff, returned to win the John Ward in 2018. Go Cash Stevie B and Run Raging Rhino Run, two of the top quarter horses at 870 yards will look to sharpen their speed in this 550-yard dash.

“In last Sunday’s Grade 1 Charger Bar Handicap, trainer Chris O’Dell dominated the race as he saddled the top three finishers. Thermonuclear Energy, the runner-up in the 2017 Charger Bar, held off One Sweet Racy to win the 400-yard race by a half-length. A Political Lady finished third.

“The 2018 American Quarter Horse Racing Association racing champions will be announced on Thursday, Jan. 17 in Oklahoma City at 4 p.m. Pacific. The announcements will be aired on a live webcast at aqha.com/racing. Los Alamitos Grade 1 stakes winners Flash And Roll, KVN Corona, A Political Lady, Tarzanito and One Sweet Racy are among the horses that could earn championship honors.”

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 4 Resolutely (3-1)

This gelding will be very tough to beat in this soft comeback spot if he repeats his strong 12.2 gate drill from Dec. 4. After breaking fast, he reached out with big strides midway and was under restraint late while working alone. He showed good ability in his initial 2017 outings and catches a weaker-than-normal allowance field. Three of his four rivals failed to finish among the top three in their last outs.

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show, Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

HALO DARLIN sped to the early lead, angled in on the first turn and set the pace inside, came a bit off the fence into the stretch and held on gamely under some urging and steady handling. SUBIC BAY saved ground stalking the pace, came a bit off the rail in midstretch and held second. SPEAKERS stalked a bit off the rail then inside leaving the second turn and into the stretch, lacked room along the fence from upper to midstretch then got up late for the show. MRASEEL (IRE) broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, waited off heels in midstretch, came out again and was edged for third three deep on the line. WIND TARTARE (FR) stalked three deep then went up four wide into and on the second turn and into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and was edged or a minor award between foes late. QUINNIE close up stalking the winner outside a rival then between foes on the second turn and into the stretch, could not quite summon the necessary late kick. GOSEECAL chased outside a rival then three deep between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally.

CANDY CORNELL chased off the rail then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under some left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch, was bumped by the runner-up late and gamely prevailed. VICTORY ELEMENT a bit slow to begin, stalked just off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter leaving the turn to gain the lead into the stretch, kicked clear and drifted to the inside, drifted out from the whip to bump the winner late and could not quite match that one. DEUCE stalked off the rail to the stretch, came out from behind foes in deep stretch and clearly bested the others. SOMETHINTOTAPABOUT broke a bit slowly, chased outside then off the rail on the turn and three deep into the stretch and lacked a further response. POINTED dropped back inside and saved ground off the pace, came out past midstretch and did not rally. MANTARAY ISLAND sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, dueled along the fence leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the drive.

SLEWGOODTOBETRUE bobbled slightly at the start, chased inside then a bit off the rail, bid three deep between foes to gain the lead into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging in midstretch, drifted in and won clear. SOOTHING a bit slow to begin, chased three deep then outside a rival, continued off the rail on the second turn, bid four wide into the stretch and was clearly second best. CLAUDELLE angled in and dueled outside a rival, battled between foes into the stretch and just held third. BEV'S HUMOR chased between foes then dropped back a bit off the rail on the backstretch, came out into the stretch and was edged for the show.. SHOW HOSTESS had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. BELLAZANO bobbled at the start, chased between horses then inside on the backstretch and into the second turn, came out leaving that turn and into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

PEACH COVE (NZ) angled in on the first turn and chased inside then between foes on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, came out in the drive and rallied under left handed urging to get up in the final stride. GIRL DOWNSTAIRS came a bit off the rail to stalk the pace, was between foes leaving the backstretch, bid three deep on the second turn to gain the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and was caught on the line. WAR MOCCASIN saved ground chasing the pace, came out some in midstretch, split foes in deep stretch and got up for the show toward the inside. INDYPENDENT DEPUTY chased outside a rival, came out leaving the second turn and five wide into the stretch and was edged for third. MISS BOOM BOOM saved ground chasing the pace, came out for room in upper stretch and was outfinished. LADY BEWARE (IRE) had good early speed and dueled inside, took a short lead on the second turn, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. AWARD IT stalked three deep then outside a rival, went three wide on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. EMMY AND I angled in and dueled outside a rival then between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened.

DYF chased outside a rival then between horses leaving the backstretch, continued outside a rival on the turn and three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up outside foes on the line. DRINK stalked a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter, took a short lead a sixteenth out and was caught between foes late. NICE WORK sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back in the drive and held third. OHTANI chased outside, came three wide into the stretch and finished willingly to be edged for the show. TIME N MONEY chased off the rail, split horses on the turn, angled inward in deep stretch and was outfinished. GRAN MARTILLO angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch, angled back to the rail in midstretch and lacked the needed rally. RESIDENT LIBERAL broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and could not summon the necessary late response. HE'S ZIPPIN ON BY saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back inside in upper stretch, was in a bit tight when crowded in midstretch and was eased in the final furlong.

SHEZA CHATTYKAT sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, opened up leaving the hill and into the stretch and held gamely under a crack of the whip and steady handling. SABURAI saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit leaving the hill then angled in, came just off the rail in the stretch finished willingly to be second best. RUBY TRUST stalked between horses then outside as rival, came out into the stretch and just held third. GONE TO TOWN chased outside then alongside a rival, angled to the inside into the stretch, came out in the drive and was edged for the show. LADYBUG bobbled at the start, saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SILKEN SPY chased outside then between foes, dropped back between horses after the right hand curve, angled in leaving the hill and lacked the needed rally. FAVORITE TRIP stalked between horses then a bit off the rail leaving the hill and weakened in the drive. FLORISTA (IRE) broke slowly, settled a bit off the rail to the stretch and lacked a rally. PROMNESIA stalked four wide then three deep leaving the hill and four wide into the stretch and weakened. OUR BOLD PRINCESS between horses early, chased four wide then three deep leaving the hill and into the stretch and also weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

ALLABOUTACTION sped to the early lead, dueled outside a rival, took the lead in upper stretch, battled three deep through the final furlong and gamely prevailed under urging. JAN'S RESERVE a bit slow to begin, stalked inside, bid along the rail in the final furlong and continued gamely to the end. ADENS DREAM had good early speed and dueled inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, fought back between foes in the final furlong and also went on willingly to the wire. BISTRAYA settled a bit off the rail to the stretch, came out in the drive and found his best stride late three deep on the line. ITALIANO stalked off the rail then three deep between horses leaving the backstretch, continued three wide on the turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. KOCHEES a step slow to begin, chased just off the rail then between horses leaving the backstretch and on the turn and was outfinished. MARKET SENTIMENT stalked outside then four wide leaving the backstretch and on the turn and into the stretch and weakened.

SHOW IT N MOE IT went up to press the pace four wide then dueled three deep on the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead in upper stretch and inched clear late under urging. S Y SKY prompted the pace three deep between foes then dueled between rivals on the turn, fought back a bit off the rail in the stretch and was clearly second best. COCO KISSES had good early speed and dueled between horses then inside on the turn and into the stretch and held third. BARBARA BEATRICE chased off the rail then outside a rival, continued off the inside into the stretch, came out in the drive and lacked a rally. SMILING TIGRESS broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then inside, came out leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. ISA FIRECRACKER pressed then stalked the pace inside, dropped back on the turn, came out in the stretch and weakened.

SMILING ANNIE dueled outside a rival then between horses into the stretch, took a short lead, fought back inside through the final furlong and gamely prevailed under some urging with the whip turned down and energetic handling. RADISH stalked outside then three deep on the hill, bid five wide into the stretch and three deep in midstretch and continued willingly to just miss between foes late. INTO RISSA settled outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, bid outside foes in deep stretch and also continued on well to the end. SMOOVIE saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch, awaited room off heels in midstretch then split horses twice in the final furlong and was outfinished. WHOA NESSIE broke in and stumbled at the start, pulled outside then stalked three deep or outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch, bid between horses in the drive and also was outfinished. I'M SASSY had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back leaving the hill and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. OH PRETTY WOMAN pulled between horses to stalk the pace, came out four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. LA GUAPA VELOS a bit slow into stride, saved ground off the pace to the stretch and lacked a rally. PERFECT PORTRAIT chased off the rail then angled in a bit off the fence leaving the hill, came out in the stretch and did not rally. EAGLE EASE broke slowly and was squeezed back, settled just off the rail, dropped back leaving the hill and failed to menace. Rail on hill at 14 feet.