Racing! Digging down into some CHRB stats

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we congratulate the Super Bowl champion … well, you know who they are.

It was difficult to get fired up about racing on Super Bowl Sunday, especially with an L.A. team in it for the first time in seemingly forever. (It wasn’t really forever, it 1984 when the Oakland/Los Angeles/Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders won.)

And thanks to Santa Anita for accepting the reality of things and moving its nine-race card up to an 11 a.m. post on yet another miserable weather day. So, how does one fill a newsletter on such a day?

Well, thank goodness the CHRB came out with its annual report and since horse players were the original sabermetricians (take that baseball) how about digging out some stats you might find interesting.

Let’s start with the most difficult numbers, fatalities. The CHRB report goes from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018. I’ve written it before but when you see a horse go down, it takes a little bit of your soul every time. One death is too many, everyone agrees on that. But things are getting better. Fatalities are down 60% in the last 13 years. There are a lot of reasons and maybe, in the future, we can go through them. But here are the California stats, combined for all breeds.

Racing fatalities on dirt: 39. Los Alamitos had 23, Santa Anita 10, Del Mar 4.

Racing fatalities on synthetic (Golden Gate): 12.

Racing fatalities on turf: 14. Santa Anita had 10, Del Mar 2.

Training fatalities on dirt: 35, Santa Anita had 17, Del Mar 6, Los Alamitos 6.

Training fatalities on synthetic (Golden Gate): 12.

Other fatalities (non-exercise deaths including stable accidents): 26, Los Alamitos had 12, Santa Anita 7.

Total all that up and you get 138.

So, how does that compare to starts, which does not include training, workouts and exercise?

Los Alamitos had 10,354 starts, Santa Anita 8,922 (5,163 on dirt/3,759 on turf) and Del Mar 4,002 (2,268/1,734).

Let’s now see what percentage of starts results in a racing fatality: Del Mar 0.149%, Los Alamitos 0.222%, Santa Anita 0.224%.

As we’ve said, one fatality is too many, but these numbers speak for themselves.

OK, on to something more pleasant. What does it cost to run the CHRB? Not a lot. $13,379,294.

Want to talk about total handle?

Santa Anita $1,433,046,424, Del Mar $650,492,971, Los Alamitos $189,961,077.

And, finally, uncashed pari-mutuel tickets: $16,374,000.

We’ll dig down even more on some rainy day in the future.

Who goofed, I’ve got to know?

Me, of course. In Sunday’s newsletter, I mistakenly referred to the San Pasqual Stakes as the San Marcos Stakes, which was the turf race that was moved off Saturday’s card to this Saturday. Although I think everyone knew what race I was talking about.

Forgot to mention

Much has been talked about Santa Anita’ new non-adherence to when the post time hits zero. Well, the track clearly wanted as much money bet on the mandatory payout day for the Rainbow Six on Saturday. What the track did had nothing to do with the zero minutes to post, it just put a bunch of time between the fourth and fifth race.

The average time between races going off is somewhere around 30 minutes. The difference between the fourth race and the fifth race, the start of the Rainbow Six, was 54 minutes on Saturday. And they still didn’t get to $7 million.

Santa Anita review

The Baffle Stakes was originally scheduled for Sunday but the racing office wisely moved the turf race until this coming Saturday. In fact, the two scheduled turf races were moved to the dirt on Sunday.

There were a lot of races that seemed to be the same but we picked the eighth, a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimers for older horses going for a purse of $59,000. It was a gutty performance by Nero, who seemed beaten and then came back gamely in the stretch and looked like the winner.

But when it comes to game horses who like to battle, the one horse that can beat them is the one they can’t see. And on the far outside, Campaign came flying, I mean really flying. Nero couldn’t see him and was nailed at the wire by a short neck.

Campaign paid $42.40, $13.00 and $8.60 for trainer John Sadler and jockey Rafael Bejarano. Apalachee Bay was third.

In the fourth race, everyone was OK after Anuket stumbled badly and threw jockey Drayden Van Dyke. The 3-year-old filly was making her second start after a 4 ¼ win in her maiden debut. She stumbled on her second stride and Van Dyke went over the top and to the mud. He immediately got back up and seemed more upset that he lost a good shot at a win than whatever damage might have been inflicted on his body. Luckily there was none.

Riderless Anuket ran at the back of the pack and was eventually corralled by a outrider. She went off at $0.50 to the dollar for trainer Bob Baffert. Van Dyke stayed on the rest of his mounts on Sunday.

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday.

Gulfstream (9): $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Winner: A Thread of Blue ($8.20)

Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Busanda Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/18 miles. Winner: Always Shopping ($6.30)

Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $100,000 Sweetest Chant Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Winner: A Bit Special ($6.60)

Final thought

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

Now, here are the star of the show, Sunday’s results. See you on Thursday.

PETER'S KITTEN stalked three deep then outside a rival, advanced four then three wide on the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch and won clear under some urging. WAZE READY chased a bit off the rail, split horses on the second turn, found the rail in the stretch and gained the place. SIDECHEERING three deep into the first turn, dueled outside a rival, took a short lead leaving the backstretch, inched away just off the rail on the second turn and bested the others. JOURNAL ENTRY saved ground chasing the pace, steadied off heels on the second turn, split horses into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CONFIDENTIALLY a bit washy at the gate, went four wide into the first turn, chased outside then alongside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. SHE BE STRIKING (GB) stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival leaving the backstretch, came out into the stretch, drifted in and weakened. BREEZY BEE had speed between foes then dueled inside, dropped back on the second turn, was taken out then drifted out in the stretch, gave way and was eased in the final furlong. JOURNAL ENTRY, PETER'S KITTEN, WAZE READY and CONFIDENTIALLY wore calks.

BEANTOWN BOYS stalked three deep then outside a rival, bid three wide into the stretch to gain the lead, inched away under left handed urging and proved best. AVANTI BELLO pulled along the inside then came a bit off the rail on the first turn to chase the pace, went outside a rival leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch and got up for the place four wide on the line. UPPER ROOM stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out in upper stretch and again in midstretch and split horses late for the show. IMPRESSION angled in and set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, fought back into the stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong but gave ground grudgingly to the others. CLEAR THE MINE pulled and stalked off the rail then bid alongside the pacesetter on the backstretch and second turn, continued between foes into the stretch and also was edged for a minor award between horses late. FREEDOM HILL settled off the rail, chased off the inside and a bit wide into the stretch and weakened. IMPRESSION and UPPER ROOM wore calks.

CALM DOWN LADY went up three deep to gain the lead on the backstretch, kicked clear and angled to the inside on the turn and drew off in the stretch under some left handed urging and steady handling. GLITTER GULCH broke a bit slowly, chased just off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and was clearly second best. DERBY LUCK had speed inside to prompt the pace, stalked on the turn, came out into the stretch and gained the show. BELLTOWN BELLE hopped at the start to be away slowly, settled off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and was not a threat. COMEGOWITHME pressed the pace between horses then stalked inside on the turn, came out some into the stretch, drifted in and weakened in the final furlong, was being eased up late then was unsaddled just past the wire and vanned off. CALM DOWN LADY wore calks.

SLEWGOODTOBETRUE prompted the pace outside a rival then stalked just off the rail, continued between foes into the second turn, bid alongside the pacesetter on that turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under left handed urging in deep stretch and proved best. PROUD EMMA three deep into the first turn, angled in and stalked just off the rail, came out for room in upper stretch and gained the place. CREATIVE INSTINCT sped to the early lead inside, inched away along the rail on the backstretch, set the pace inside, dueled from the fence on the second turn and into the stretch, fought back until past midstretch and held third. TAPWATER hopped in a bit of a slow start, went four wide into the first turn, stalked outside then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. ANUKET stumbled in the second stride from the gate and lost the rider. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the start before ruling ANUKET was the cause of her own trouble. CREATIVE INSTINCT wore calks.

BIZWHACKS stalked just off the rail, bid outside the runner-up leaving the second turn, took the lead into the stretch, was shaken up with the reins to inch clear and proved best under a couple backhanded taps with the whip and a steady hand ride. BOLD MONGOLIAN broke inward, sped to the early lead and kicked clear on the first turn, set the pace inside, fought back leaving the second turn and into the stretch, was not a match for the winner in the final furlong but clearly second best. SOOTHING four wide into the first turn, chased outside then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and gained the show. PAIGE RUNNER a bit slow to begin, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and weakened in the stretch. CHERISHED three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, angled in between foes leaving the second turn and had little left for the stretch and was eased late. MISS CAMPBELL chased outside a rival then just off the rail, dropped back on the second turn, came out into the stretch and gave way.

SHES ALL WOMAN saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch, rallied under urging to the front nearing the sixteenth pole and won clear under a hold late. TWICE GOLDEN pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail midway on the turn, re-bid outside the pacesetter leaving the turn to gain the advantage into the stretch, inched away in the drive, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth but bested the others. CLAUDELLE chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and gained the show. MALIBU CAT sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace inside rivals but off the rail, inched away briefly midway on the turn, fought back just off the inside leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. FIGHT NIGHT prompted the pace between horses, stalked off the rail on the turn, dropped back between foes leaving the turn and gave way. PERSEPHONE a step slow to begin, settled off the rail, came a bit wide into the stretch and lacked a further response. CLAUDELLE wore calks.

I AM THE DANGER sent inside to duel for the lead, battled inside on the turn, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and won clear. SOUL STREIT dueled between horses then outside the winner into and on the turn, was fanned out a bit into the stretch and bested the others. CLYDE'S PRIDE squeezed a bit at the start, chased between horses then just off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and held third. BEST TWO MINUTES saved ground off the pace, came out a bit into the stretch, went around a rival a sixteenth out and lacked the needed rally. QUICK FINISH chased along the inside, continued on the rail on the turn and in the stretch and weakened. TRIBAL ROAR bumped into a rival at the break, stalked three deep on the backstretch and outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. TOUGH BUT NICE broke in onto a rival, had speed outside then pressed the pace three deep, stalked into and on the turn, drifted four wide into the stretch and gave way. TOUGH BUT NICE wore calks.

CAMPAIGN unhurried along the inside then a bit off the rail, came out on the second turn and five wide into the stretch and closed with a rush late under urging to get up on the wire. NERO a step slow to begin, dueled outside a rival then between foes, inched away briefly into the second turn, fought back inside leaving that turn and through a long drive to put a head in front again in deep stretch and was edged late. APALACHEE BAY stalked three deep between foes then bid three wide between rivals on the backstretch, re-bid outside the runner-up on the second turn, took a short lead while drifting out into the stretch, angled in and fought back through the drive and was edged between foes late. POPULAR KID four wide into the first turn, chased off the rail or outside, moved up four wide on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. EL HUERFANO four wide on the first turn, angled in and chased outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. BIG BEND pulled under a hold and steadied early, angled in and chased outside a rival then between foes on the second turn and into the stretch and also weakened. CHOO CHOO had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked into the second turn, fell back leaving that turn and also weakened. SHEER FLATTERY saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch and had little left for the drive. AIR VICE MARSHAL stalked four wide on the first turn then bid four wide on the backstretch, dropped back into and on the second turn and gave way. CAMPAIGN and APALACHEE BAY wore calks.

MI PAJARITO had speed inside a rival then inched away and set the pace a bit off the rail, battled outside a foe on the turn, drifted out a bit into the stretch, inched clear again in the stretch, drifted in some late and held on gamely under urging. JEWELED chased off the rail, came three wide into the stretch, angled in past midstretch and went around a rival then finished with interest inside the winner. TRAPPIZA hopped in a bit of a slow start, chased outside then off the rail, angled to the inside nearing the stretch, moved up along the rail in the drive then went outside a rival late for show. ROYAL ASTRONOMER saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside the winner on the turn, continued along the fence in the stretch and was edged late for third. LUCKY LULA stalked off the rail then angled in on the turn, came out into the stretch and weakened. VENICE had speed outside the winner then stalked outside a rival, fell back on the turn, drifted four wide into the stretch and also weakened. DESIRED EDGE stalked outside then three deep on the turn, came out five wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. LUCKY LULA wore calks.