Racing! A handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as e look forward to a pretty good Santa Monica Stakes.

Let’s get right to it and a teachable moment.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the sixth race at Santa Anita. Rob, take it away.

“A maiden special weight at a mile on the turf. One of the attributes of both our WCHR and ECHR, is our winning first timers, as exemplified by the $22 debut winner Friday, as well as 23 of the last 24 debut winners between Del Mar and Santa Anita entering this meet. One of the main reasons for this, is not only understanding the patterns over the years, winning tendencies of trainers, but often just as important, is, understanding who exits what races. What do we mean? It means not all $30,000 maiden claimers are the same, and not all maiden special weights are the same, which is why we came up last year with our WCHR Maiden Power Rankings, which clearly reveal which races consist of more talent than the others. When we look at this field on Saturday, it’s bad, not indicative of a true MSW condition, much closer to a $20,000 bunch than the other end of the spectrum. Not only is this useful, but even more important next time out when these same runners return, we can evaluate the strength of race they exit. As for this Saturday race, top selection is UNICORN (#4), exiting not only a decent race last time out, but freshened off the downhill turf sprint, now given a flat mile, a signature move for many at this meet, but Richard Baltas in particular has become really good at this. The majority of this field just isn’t much, and that should allow for a pretty effective effort, with a final ¼ in the 24 second range giving her dead aim nearing the wire. MAXIM RATE (#7) debuts for Simon Callaghan, a guy who rarely leaves his horses short at first asking, and especially true when going long. He’s also been giving Andrea Atzeni plenty of good opportunities, and here’s another.

“WCHR Maiden Power Rating: - 5.50 (well below average)

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-7-8

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Positive Notes:

“3 Holly Hundy - We like the fact Cerin goes long in the local debut off the Gulfstream sprint.

“8 Posit - Mario is so good with settling his mounts, especially useful with young runners, and we certainly liked the big improvement moving to the sod.

“TOP PICK: UNICORN (#4 3-1 Pereira)

“SECOND CHOICE: MAXIM RATE (#7 12-1 Atzeni) Debut”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The feature, over a muddy track, was 6 ½-furlong race taken off the downhill turf course for older Cal-bred fillies and mares. The purse was $57,000.

Donut Girl paid $6.80, $4.40 and $3.20 for trainer Hector Palma and jockey Flavien Prat. Judicial was second and Shylock Eddie was third.

Prat rode the perfect race, biding his time early and then keeping Donut Girl on the rail, where he was able to gain the win by ½ length.

“She’s good right now,” Palma told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “She needed some time off, but she’s good now. We’ll see how she is in the morning, but I want to keep her with Cal-breds.”

Santa Anita preview

There is a forecast of little to no rain on Saturday so maybe we’ll be seeing some turf racing. It’s a 10-race card starting at noon, with half of the races to be run on the grass. The average field size is 8.6, thanks to some big turf fields.

The big stakes race is the Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes for older fillies and mares going seven furlongs. It’s drawn a pretty good field. It should go off about 4:10 p.m.

Marley’s Freedom, and Eclipse Award finalist, is the 2-1 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Drayden Van Dyke. Marley is seven-of-14 lifetime and has won six of her last seven races. She even won a Grade 1 at Saratoga.

The second favorite, at 3-1 is Selcourt, for John Sadler and Joe Talamo. She has won four-of-eight lifetime including Grade 2 and 3s. However, she was a disappointing 12^th in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

Also in the race is Dream Tree, who won her first five races before a struggling eighth in the La Brea Stakes on opening day at Santa Anita.

There is also a minor stakes, the $70,000 Wishing Well Stakes for older fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs down the 6 ½ furlong hillside turf course. Belvoir Bay is the 5-2 favorite for Peter Miller and Joel Rosario. She won the Las Cienegas Stakes last out and has won Grade 2 and 3 races.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 7, 5, 11, 7, 11, 8, 12 (4 also eligible), 7, 12 (1 ae).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:30 Laurel (5): $100,000 Miracle Wood Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Alwaysmining (7-5)

12:00 Laurel (6): $100,000 Wide Country Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Our Super Freak (2-1)

12:30 Laurel (7): $100,000 John B. Campbell Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Discreet Lover (3-1)

12:46 Tampa Bay (7): $100,000 Pelican Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Imperial Hint (2-5)

1:00 Laurel (8): Grade 3 $250,000 General George Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Still Having Fun (9-2)

1:30 Laurel (9): Grade 3 $250,000 Barbara Fritchie Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Spiced Perfection (3-1)

1:40 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Broadway Stakes, NY-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Pauseforthecause (2-1)

2:12 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Royal Delta Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Tequilita (8-5)

2:25 Fair Grounds (8): Grade 3 $150,000 Mineshaft , 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Lone Sailor (7-2)

2:38 Oaklawn (8): $100,000 Dixie Belle Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Unholy Alliance (2-1)

2:57 Fair Grounds (10) Grade 3 $150,000 Fair Grounds Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Synchrony (3-1)

3:29 Fair Grounds (11): Grade 2 $200,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorites: Positive Spirit, Needs Supervision (5-1)

3:54 Golden Gate (7): $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Kingly (2-1)

4:02 Fair Grounds (12): Grade 2 $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: War of Will (5-2)

4:09 Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Santa Monica Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Marley’s Freedom (2-1)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

TENTH RACE: No. 1 Kichiro (4-1)

Second-time starter from the Phil D'Amato barn debuted vs. straight maidens and didn't run badly when finishing mid-pack after contesting the early pace in a race that has produced two next-out winners. He drops into a $50,000 claimer today, has tactical speed and should be very formidable in here assuming he can overcome the disadvantageous rail post coming down the hillside turf course.

Friday’s result: R Cha Cha dueled on the early lead, then spit it out in mid-stretch in a weak effort.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 5 ENERGETIC (6-1)

He went very well late for second after a tough getaway in his most recent effort against a perfect tripped victor. In that effort, this gelding broke slow and outward to lose over a length and his early racing momentum. Energetic was still able to put forth a big run past the gap to finish with a quality second place finish. It’s true that Energetic has a tendency to get into trouble early on, but he’s also very talented and will pay nicely if he can put it all together against this evenly matched group at 300 yards.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

KAYDETRE had good early speed and angled in, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside leaving the second turn, responded when challenged into the stretch, inched away again along the fence in midstretch and held on gamely under left handed urging. GOLD ARROW stalked a bit off the rail then outside a rival, went three deep into and out of the second turn and continued willingly late. WAZE READY chased inside, went around a rival on the second turn then angled back to the rail into the stretch and gained the show. SCATTERING MINK three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then just off the rail on the second turn, bid alongside the winner into the stretch, fell back some between foes a sixteenth out and was edged for third. MONGOLIAN EMPIRE bobbled in a slow start, was sent inside then saved ground stalking the pace, pulled a bit along the rail on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn and gave way. WAZE READY wore calks.

CONTAGION broke in a bit and bobbled slightly in the second stride, went up inside to duel for the lead, came out a bit leaving the turn, inched away off the rail in the stretch and held gamely under urging then a hold late. HARD TO COME HOME dueled three deep then outside the winner leaving the turn and into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but clearly bested the others. R B EYE had good early speed and dueled between horses, was momentarily in a bit tight a quarter mile out, continued between foes through much of the stretch and outfinished rivals for the show. CALDER VALE four wide early, chased off the rail then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. SKY GLORY settled off the rail then angled in on the backstretch, saved ground on the turn and into the stretch, continued inside and also weakened.

FOXTAIL had speed between horses, angled in on the first turn and set a pressured pace inside, inched away in the stretch and drew off under a tap with the whip turned down, an energetic hand ride and steady handling late. DEARBORN three deep early, dueled outside the winner then between horses on the backstretch and into second turn, fought back alongside the winner leaving that turn, could not match that one in the drive and just held second. TRUST FUND KITTY chased outside then off the rail, continued alongside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. PRINCESS LEIA three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then bid three wide leaving the backstretch and into the second turn, fell back and angled in some leaving that turn and was outfinished for a minor share. ATINA (ARG) saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail into and on the second turn, split horses into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MADAKET SUNSET had speed inside to press the pace, was in a bit tight early on the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back on the second turn, continued inside and also weakened. FOXTAIL wore calks.

GIO PRONTO broke out some and a bit slowly, chased off the rail, angled in for the turn, came out into the stretch and again in upper stretch and rallied under urging to get up three deep late. SWEETENER a step slow to begin, chased inside, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch, bid three deep to gain the lead, battled outside a foe in the final furlong and was caught between horses late. CRACKLING BREAD had speed between foes then stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter on the backstretch to duel for the lead, fought back between horses in midstretch then off the rail in the final furlong and continued gamely to the end. SECRET OFFER chased off the rail, angled in on the turn, found the inside into the stretch, came out a bit in the drive and lacked the needed rally. PURDUE had good early speed and angled in, dueled inside, fought back on the turn and to midstretch and weakened in the final furlong. FACTORIZE sent between horses early, stalked between rivals then off the rail, continued outside a foe on the turn and three deep into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and weakened. TEMPESTUOUS GAL broke a bit slowly, dropped back inside, saved ground off the pace to the stretch and failed to menace. SWEETENER wore calks.

ENLISTING chased a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, came out into the stretch to gain the advantage outside a rival under a tap of the whip turned down, was shaken up with the reins to widen in the drive and drew off under a hold the final sixteenth. LIL RESPECT pressed the pace outside a rival then between horses, stalked leaving the second turn and outfinished the pacesetter late for the place. LILY CON had good early speed and set a pressured pace inside, inched away on the second turn, was not a match for the winner in the drive and was outfinished for second. KIRSCH TRUFFLE stalked three deep then bid three wide between foes on the backstretch and into the second turn, tracked again on that turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. AMERICAN FALLS four wide into the first turn, bid four wide on the backstretch, stalked outside leaving the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. REDS SACRED APPEAL angled in and saved ground off the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and gave way.

CONQUEST COBRA stalked outside a rival then between foes on the turn, came three deep into the stretch, rallied under urging to get up three deep nearing the wire. BEST TWO MINUTES saved ground stalking the pace, bid along the rail in the stretch, put a head in front in deep stretch and continued gamely to just miss. GRAYCASTER angled in and dueled outside a rival, was three deep into the stretch while taking a short lead, fought back between horses in the final furlong and was outkicked late. R CHA CHA had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail to the stretch, was between rivals in upper stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MONYDONTSPENITSELF stalked off the rail then three deep on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened.

DONUT GIRL angled in and stalked inside, bid along the rail in the stretch, gained a slim advantage nearing the sixteenth pole and gamely prevailed under urging. JUDICIAL dueled a bit off the rail then inside, came out a bit into the stretch, battled outside the winner through the final furlong and continued gamely but could not quite match that one late. SHYLOCK EDDIE stalked three deep to the stretch, continued three wide in midstretch and edged a rival for the show. AN EDDIE SURPRISE stalked the pace between horses, waited off heels when lacking room from upper stretch to midstretch, angled in then out for room just past the eighth pole and was edged for third. BRAGGING RIGHTS settled inside then off the rail, angled in on the turn, swung out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. CHASIN LUCAS angled in and dueled outside the runner-up, was fanned out a bit into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

ZESTFUL sent between horses early, dueled outside a rival then inched away leaving the first turn, set the pace a bit off the rail then inside on the second turn, kicked away on that turn and drew off in the stretch under a crack of the whip and a strong hand ride. LINDANTE three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then off the rail leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and held the place. HARROVIAN chased inside then a bit off the rail on the backstretch, angled in for the second turn, cut the corner into the stretch and bested the others. I'LL WRAP IT UP three wide into the first turn, chased off the rail then between foes on the backstretch, continued outside on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. GO GHETTO had speed inside to duel for the lead then stalked along the fence, came out leaving the turn and into the stretch and weakened. CRYSTAL DOME (GB) pulled between horses then angled in and chased inside, came out into the stretch and also weakened. BANZE NO OESTE (BRZ) four wide into the first turn, stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.