Racing! Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we try and look at the recent rise in deaths from Santa Anita’s perspective.

First up, there were no fatalities at Santa Anita in either training or racing on Thursday. Hoping this is a big-time trend. (More on Santa Anita later in the newsletter.)

Here you go with one of our most popular features, Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Top 10. Jon, as you know, does the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a registered steward and one of the most knowledgeable historians of the sport. Take it away, Jon.

“Hidden Scroll, who ranks No. 5 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, and Signalman, who occupies the No. 7 spot, are entered in Saturday's Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The 1 1/16-mile race has drawn a field of 11 seeking 50-20-10-5 qualifying points for the May 4 Kentucky Derby.

“A dazzling 14-length maiden winner on a sloppy track at first asking Jan. 26 at Gulfstream, Hidden Scroll has been installed as the Fountain of Youth morning-line favorite at 9-5. He breaks from post 7. Vekoma is 7-2, Signalman is 9-2 and Code of Honor is 6-1. All others are 10-1 or higher.

“Joel Rosario, who currently sits atop the Santa Anita jockey standings, will be aboard Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth. Rosario guided the Hard Spun colt to his Jan. 26 maiden victory.

“Vekoma, who is two for two, makes his 2019 debut in the Fountain of Youth. This will be his first start since he won Aqueduct's Nashua Stakes by nearly two lengths last Nov. 4. George Weaver trains the Candy Ride colt.

“Signalman, trained by Ken McPeek, is making his first start since he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last Nov. 24. The General Quarters colt ran third behind Game Winner and Knicks Go in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill on Nov. 2.

“Code of Honor ran second despite a dreadful start in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last Oct. 6, but then disappointed in his only 2019 start to date. The Noble Mission colt finished fourth as the 4-5 favorite in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 5 for Hall of Fame horseman Shug McGaughey.

“Global Campaign and Bourbon War both look capable of having a big say in the Fountain of Youth. Global Campaign is undefeated in two career starts. Bourbon War has raced a total of three times, winning twice.

“Here are this week's rankings:

1. Game Winner (1)

2. Improbable (2)

3. War of Will (3)

4. Instagrand (4)

5. Hidden Scroll (5)

6. Mucho (6)

7. Signalman (7)

8. Mucho Gusto (8)

9. Omaha Beach (9)

10. Galilean (10)

NOTE: Last week's rankings in parentheses

“For a time it had looked like Santa Anita's San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 9 might attract No. 1 Game Winner and/or No. 2 Improbable and/or No. 4 Instagrand. But some understandably had a lingering suspicion that when push came to shove, it was improbable that these three highly ranked colts actually would meet in the San Felipe. And now it has become evident that all three will not be in the same race on March 9. Daily Racing Form's David Grening reported Thursday that Instagrand will be running instead in Aqueduct's Gothman Stakes at one mile around one turn on the same day as the San Felipe.

“Instagrand, owned by Larry Best (OXO Equine) and trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, has not started since winning the Best Pal Stakes by a little more than 10 lengths at Del Mar last Aug. 11. In his only start prior to that, Instagrand cruised to a 10-length maiden victory at Los Alamitos on June 29.

“Hollendorfer told Grening: ‘After discussing with Larry the best possible path to take with our horse, it was suggested and determined that the Gotham would be a better race for him than the San Felipe.’

“Javier Castellano will ride Instagrand in the Gotham. The Hall of Fame jockey flew from Florida to California to work Instagrand this past Monday at Santa Anita when the Into Mischief colt was timed in 1:26.60 for seven furlongs.

“Bob Baffert is the trainer of No. 1 Game Winner, No. 2 Improbable and No. 8. Mucho Gusto. Hall of Famer Baffert has stated that Eclipse Award winner Game Winner and Los Alamitos Futurity winner Improbable could both run in the San Felipe. Mucho Gusto is expected to start next in either Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 16 or Sunland Park's Sunland Derby at 1 1/8 miles on March 24.

“Gary and Mary West own Game Winner. The Wests also are the owners of Maximum Security, an intriguing 3-year-old in Florida with trainer Jason Servis. Maximum Security is undefeated in three career starts. He's won his three races this year at Gulfstream by 9 3/4, 6 1/2 and 18 1/4 lengths.

“Maximum Security, who will likely make his next start in Gulfstream's Florida Derby at 1 1/8 miles on March 30, is a son of New Year's Day. The Wests also raced the Baffert-trained New Year's Day, who won the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

“Whether or not No. 6 Mucho is still on my Top 10 next week will hinge largely on how he fares in a six-furlong allowance/optional claiming race Friday at Gulfstream. He is the 1-5 morning-line favorite while making his first start since finishing second in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga last Sept. 3 for Mott. Mucho looked like he might be one of the best 2-year-olds in the country when he won a maiden race by almost 10 lengths at Saratoga prior to the Hopeful.

"I seriously contemplated dropping No. 9 Omaha Beach from my Top 10 this week. He reportedly missed a few days of training due to a quarter crack. But I decided to keep him on the Top 10 for the time being when learning that, despite the quarter crack, the plan is to run him in either the Rebel or Sunland Derby. Hall of Famer Richard Mandella is the trainer of Omaha Beach, a nine-length maiden winner on a sloppy track Feb. 2 at Santa Anita.”

More thoughts on Santa Anita

There really were no races worth writing about on the Thursday card, but most importantly, there were no horse fatalities. Finding the reasons for the marked increase in deaths has not really advanced very much and it seems they are more in the process of ruling things out.

So, at the risk of being called a houseman for Santa Anita, as some of you have, (those who no doubt don’t read the newsletter but just look at the results at the bottom) I wanted to flip the coin and try and view things through the prism of Santa Anita. And, for the record, no one told me to do this, no one.

I was pretty harsh on Santa Anita on Thursday after its announcement that the racing surface was “100% ready” for training and racing. My thinking was that kind of comment can only come back and bite you when the next horse goes down, and, sadly, yes, there will be more fatalities this meeting.

But, from Santa Anita’s perspective, if they say they are “pretty certain” or even “99%” then they are saying, “so there is a chance.” Tough place to be in. I do think they should have outlined in detail next steps beyond the ad hoc committee but I do get the track’s need to be unequivocal on the track’s condition. Maybe, from its perspective, was the only way to go.

Research has shown that as many as 80%, or even higher, of breakdowns related to muscle and bone, show that there was an underlying condition that exacerbated or even caused the limb to be injured. Is the answer more rigorous scans by vets? Well, just like in humans, there are so many underlying conditions that just aren’t discoverable until the autopsy/necropsy. We all love our doctors (or at least we should) but they are making educated opinions that, especially in early diagnosis, can be called little more than guessing. Not sure what anyone can do about undiscoverable illnesses or flaws. And not sure what racing can do about it.

Santa Anita is in the same unenviable spot that virtually every race track in America has or will find itself in at some point. In many cases, you can’t predict when the spike in deaths starts or when it ends. If you are lucky, you will find a cause, but you don’t always. Ask Del Mar about the trouble with its turf course a few years ago. It did detect the flaws that contributed to deaths and did get it fixed.

Santa Anita also came to an understanding with PETA, which cancelled a planned protest. According to PETA, Santa Anita “pledged to take definitive steps, including extending the review of medication records of horses who are in training—and not just before racing.” Whoever got PETA to back down/compromise deserves employee of the month. This was significant and may even hint at some level of detente between the groups. Let’s hope so.

Here’s the bottom line on this issue, PETA is an animal rights advocacy group. Yet, I promise you that 99% (notice the ever-so-slight hedge) of the people who work in horse racing are animal rights advocates. All you’ve got to do is spend five minutes on the backstretch to see the love and care those horses get and if you wander off the backstretch to the customer area, see the pain and horror on the faces of the employees—on all levels—when things go bad. There are significant differences between PETA and the industry, but in the end they both want the same thing, healthy, happy horses.

I’m also completely certain that if a fictional world’s smartest person were to go to Tim Ritvo, COO of The Stronach Group, and offer to sell him what is guaranteed to fix this problem for $5 million right now or $100,000 in two days, there would be sparks flying off Ritvo’s pen as he would be writing the big check so fast. Santa Anita understands the urgency. I’ve never doubted that.

I do regret if in the last newsletter if I came off as threatening with my promise that we would hold Santa Anita accountable. I was caught up in the role of the free press as being the ultimate watchdog, a role we take very seriously. And by “we” I didn’t just mean me. Los Angeles is very fortunate to have journalists such as Jeremy Balan of the BloodHorse and Steve Andersen and Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form, among others, monitoring the sport on a daily basis. We will hold whomever is to blame responsible—and there may be no one—but in a non-threatening, fair, journalistic way, and with the realization that nobody wants to be in this situation. These bad situations can go unnoticed in smaller markets, but with a strong media, not here.

So, there you have it, the other side of the coin. Santa Anita is almost in an unwinnable situation and desperately needs a week with no fatalities to cool the temperature. Remember, without Santa Anita, there is no Southern California racing. And without horses, there is no Santa Anita.

Santa Anita preview

What’s that painful cliché no journalistic should ever use? “What a difference a day/week/month/year ….” I’m hoping by the use of the ellipses and not finishing the sentence will keep me out of the journo doghouse. So, in other words, Friday’s eight-race card is way better than Thursday’s. First post is 1 p.m. There are three turf races, all down the hill, and three allowance/optional claimers.

I couldn’t be more excited about the eighth race, an allowance for 3-year-olds going a mile on the dirt. There are only six horses but they have great potential.

The 7-5 favorite is Roadster for trainer Baffert and jockey Mike Smith. Roadster was the “A” 2-year-old in Baffert’s barn last summer, which is why he had Smith as his jockey. He won his first race and entered the Del Mar Futurity as the prohibitive favorite, where he ran a disappointing third. The race was won by the “other Baffert” Game Winner. It was discovered Roadster had a little breathing issue, which was corrected, and was given a little time off. This is his first race back.

There is an “other Baffert” in this race and it comes in the form of Dessman at 9-5. He won his first race and then got nosed at the wire by Sparky Ville in the seven-furlong San Vicente. He was wearing blinkers, which he won’t be Friday, and may not have seen the other horse. This is a big test to see how he handles two turns. Flavien Prat rode him last time but it looks as if Baffert is doing Victor Espinoza a big solid by putting him on this horse. Victor really wants a Derby horse, so a big effort here and in the final Derby prep, whatever that is, could be the trick.

Finally, also at 9-5, is Nolo Contesto for John Sadler and Rosario. He was originally scheduled to run in Robert Lewis Stakes but scratched out when the track turned up sloppy. After a fifth first out, he won his second race on Jan. 4, showing great promise. He beat Omaha Beach in that race, a nine-length winner in his last race.

This is a Derby preps quality race. It’s the eighth at about 4:55 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 10 (1 also eligible), 5, 7, 9, 10 (2 ae), 8, 9, 6.

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 6 Contagion (10-1)

Recent maiden claiming winner scored easily on the front end and was re-claimed by leading trainer Doug O'Neill, a positive handicapping angle. The sophomore colt gets a confident raise in class, looks like the controlling speed and may prove elusive at a square price. If he handles going two turns on turf he is an interesting play in this spot.

Thursday’s result: Dimkar was somehow “climbing” in a race coming downhill, moved up wide into the stretch, made another erratic move inside at top of stretch, then lost his punch and faded badly. Not good.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

This weekly segment is in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, the floor is yours, Orlando.

“Los Alamitos Race Course debuts a new Friday night first post of 6 p.m. beginning with Friday’s eight-race card. As always, the early pick four starts in the first race.

“The program will be headed by the $15,000 Dreaming Sweet Overnight Handicap. Multiple stakes winner Singles Cruise, who won a trial to the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby at 33-1 on Jan. 19, is among the headliners in the 330-yard handicap. While racing mostly in Canada last year, Singles Cruise won the Grade 3 Canadian Quarter Horse Futurity at Century Downs in Rocky View County, Alberta, and both the Evergreen Park Juvenile and Jerry Stojan Memorial Stakes at Grande Prairie also in Alberta. In the Winter Derby final on Feb. 9, Singles Cruise was involved early, but was bumped several times and faded to eighth.

“Singles Cruise will be facing a good field of sophomores that include stakes winner Striver and stakes-placed runner Callender. Those two enjoyed futurity success last year with Striver finishing second in the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity and Callender running in the PCQHRA Breeders Futurity.

“On Saturday, Moon Me Blue and Bolt For Gold, who ran in the Holiday Handicap on Dec. 29, head the feature 300-yard race for $30,000 claimers. Neither fared well in the Holiday, finishing sixth and seventh, respectively, but they’ve both enjoyed previous success at Los Alamitos. Moon Me Blue won a pair of $20,000 claimers for trainer Valentin Zamudio last year, while Bolt For Gold finished second to Mr FDD in the Corona Chick Handicap and was also part of the Autumn Handicap. Wild West Futurity finalist Justaczech and Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes finalist Alacarrera are among the others in this race.

“Sunday night, multiple stakes winners One Proud Eagle and Joe Legacy are among the top names in the allowance feature at 330 yards. One Proud Eagle is a four-time stakes winner at Los Alamitos, but has not raced since May, 2018.

“’He had pneumonia,’ Hartley said. ‘We took him to the clinic and San Luis Rey Downs and he had several oxygen chamber treatments to help him get over the illness. We also scoped him recently and he's doing well. We've had in training for a quite a while now and he's ready to run.’

“He has been a top notch performer during his 16-race career with seven victories and earnings of $321,546. As a 2-year-old in 2016, he won the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity, John Deere Juvenile Challenge Championship and Holiday Handicap. Joe Legacy has enjoyed a fine career as well, winning five stakes races including three at Los Alamitos. He’s won the John Ward Handicap twice.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE FIVE: No. 2 My Favorite Toby (9-2)

He is a trouble-prone runner, but has steadily improved on my comparison figures where I account for trouble and track variant. In his most recent effort 19 nights ago, this runner broke slow and inward and was crossed by a quicker rival to lose over a length of ground and his racing lane. After such a tough start, he finished well while appearing to like the wet-fast racing surface.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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Now, the stars of the show Thursday’s results and Friday’s entries.

SUGARY stalked outside a rival, bid alongside the pacesetter leaving the backstretch, took command on the second turn, kicked away and drew off under a tap of the whip and a moderate hand ride then a long hold late. TRAPPIZA saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and was clearly second best. GREATER GLORY three deep into the first turn, angled in and chased inside, came out into the stretch and picked up the show. TIZ WONDERFULLY had speed outside the winner then angled in and set the pace inside, fought back leaving the backstretch and into the second turn and weakened in the drive. CHALKY (IRE) came off the inside approaching the first turn, chased outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and also weakened. HALO GIRL chased outside a rival then a bit off the rail leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and had little left for stretch.

DR WYSONG stalked early then bid between rivals to press the pace, took the lead into the stretch, inched away under urging in midstretch and won clear under steady handling late. OUR ROMANCE sped to the early lead, inched away and angled in, set the pace inside then dueled along the rail to the stretch and held second. Y NOT SIZZLE three wide early, chased outside a rival then off the rail, angled in on the turn and picked up the show. DON'T SELL bobbled at the start, stalked early then pressed the pace three wide to the stretch and weakened. HARPER'S GALLOP hopped then broke inward and slowly, went up inside to stalk the pace, dropped back and came out on the turn and gave way.

CAJUN TREASURE stalked a bit off the rail then inside, came out in upper stretch and rallied under some left handed urging to get up in the final stride. RAGING TIGER had good early speed and dueled inside, drifted out and bumped a rival on the dirt crossing, continued inside, inched away in midstretch and held on well but was caught on the line. LOMU a step slow to begin, angled in and chased inside, cut the corner into the stretch, continued along the inside and edged rivals for the show. POINTED broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then inside, came out some in midstretch and was edged for third three deep on the line. OVERDUE dueled outside a rival, was bumped on the dirt crossing, stalked that one in midstretch and was outfinished for a minor award between foes late. DIMKAR (FR) chased outside a rival or off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. Rail on hill at 7 feet.

SERGIO chased off the rail then outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and won clear. PIG IRON had good early speed and dueled inside, inched clear on the turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held second. RAGGY ROCKS broke slowly, settled off the rail, came three deep into the stretch, angled in late and bested the others. CAPTAIN N. BARRON dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail leaving the turn and into the stretch, found the fence in the lane and weakened. RAC had good early speed and dueled three deep between foes then three wide into the turn, continued outside on the bend and into the stretch and also weakened. CENTAURUS RULE bobbled at the start but quickly recovered, press the pace four wide, dropped back off the rail into and on the turn and gave way.

SMOOVIE bobbled slightly at the start, stalked outside a rival then bid alongside the pacesetter on the backstretch and turn, took the lead into the stretch, inched away in midstretch, drifted in some and held gamely under urging. LA LA LAND saved ground stalking the pace, came out into the stretch and went on willingly but could not catch the winner. RADISH settled a bit off the rail then outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. WEATHER MARKET chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival on the backstretch, went three deep into and on the second turn and into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SIDECHEERING had speed between horses then angled in, set the pace inside, fought back on the backstretch and second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. ZILLINDA between horses early, stalked a bit off the rail then inside leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. LA GUAPA VELOS three deep into the first turn, chased outside a rival then between horses on the second turn and weakened in the drive.

TIME FOR SUZZIE saved ground stalking the pace, awaited room leaving the turn, came out into the stretch and was in tight off heels in upper stretch, angled in and split foes then bid toward the rail in midstretch, gained the lead past the eighth pole and won clear under some urging and steady handling late. SIERRA SUNRISE chased inside, came out leaving the turn and three wide into the stretch, angled inward in midstretch and edged rivals for the place. BLUEBERRY PRINCESS stalked three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch, bid outside foes in midstretch and was edged for second. QUEEN CARMELITA close up stalking the early pace outside a rival, bid alongside a foe leaving the backstretch, put a head in front a quarter mile out, battled between foes in midstretch and was edged for the show. JUST SPLENDID bobbled slightly at the start, stalked between horses, fell back outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. PLAN B sped to the early lead, inched away and angled in, set the pace inside then dueled leaving the backstretch, fought back on the turn and weakened in the drive.

ROCKY ROGUE had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away in the stretch and held on gamely under urging. ACCORDING TO BUDDY chased a bit off the rail then inside, came out into the stretch and edged rivals or the place three deep on the line. REBEL WAR dueled between horses then outside the winner on the turn, continued outside a rival in midstretch and held third between foes late. IRON CURTAIN had speed four wide then stalked off the rail, angled to the inside for the turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and was edged for third. CANDYMAN GARRET broke out a bit, was between horses early, pressed the pace three deep then stalked outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. ARTISTIC AB broke slowly and steadied, settled a bit off the rail then inside, came out some into the stretch and gave way.

YOU MUST CHILL sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, responded when challenged on the second turn, edged away again in the stretch and won clear under a couple taps of the whip and steady handling. RESIDENT LIBERAL angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, moved up inside leaving the backstretch, came out into the stretch and edged a rival for the place. OF GOOD REPORT chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch and inside on the second turn and into the stretch, came out past midstretch and was edged for second. SHARED bobbled at the start, pulled three deep early then stalked off the rail, bid outside the winner on the second turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SILENT MUSKETIER broke in a bit, saved ground chasing the pace, went between foes into the second turn, came out three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. SEVEN OXEN chased inside then outside a rival on the second turn and could not offer the necessary response. BIG CITY BANE broke a bit slowly, tugged three deep then chased outside a rival, went four wide into and out of the second turn and lacked the needed late kick. LAKE SHOW chased outside a rival, dropped back between foes then just off the rail on the second turn and had little left for the drive.