Racing! Ready for the last Kentucky Derby preps of the year

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we welcome Rob Henie back with another handicapping lesson.

Saturday is the last day to gain Kentucky Derby points. You’ve got Improbable vs. Omaha Beach at Oaklawn in the Arkansas Derby. Should be interesting. And, you’ve got minor points at the Lexington Stakes where Sueno, for Keith Desormeaux, and Golden Gate Fields favorite Anothertwistafate are both looking for a win and enough points for a trip to Louisville.

We preview the Arkansas Derby with a story about Omaha Beach and Richard Mandella’s 15-year absence from the Derby. You can read it by just clicking here.

In that story, we also dig down into the alarmingly short fields at Santa Anita over the weekend. Here are some stats to chew on.

--Saturday’s card has 59 starters over nine races, but seven of the races have only six starters, making for an average 6.5 starters a race. On Sunday, there are 49 starters over eight races, with five races with only five starters (6.1 average).

--In 2018, on Saturday there were 11 races with 84 starters (7.6 average). And on Sunday, nine races with 70 starters (7.8 average).

--In 2018, 770 horses worked over the main dirt track and training track in the week following Santa Anita Derby. This year, only 589 horses worked, a decline of 23.5%.

We talk about some of the possible reasons for this which includes the prominence of Keeneland and the shutting down the downhill turf course. Give it a read and see what you think. Again, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the first race at Santa Anita. The floor is yours Rob.

“The weekend begins with an optional claimer at a mile on the turf. We ended Friday’s card with a nice $26 top-pick winner for members, and though nothing close to that price here in the opener, we’re solidly behind our top selection in KITTY BOOM BOOM (#1). This is a field of six, and usually with smaller fields going long on the turf, most jocks will stay relatively close to one another before turning things into a sprint for home, which is precisely why we believe this runner is a standout here. It’s always noteworthy when a horse shows success doing something for the first time, and in the case of this one, she ran super, no doubt pleasing her connections. Not only did she settle super in her first route, even flicking her ears forward at one point (an indication that the horse is enjoying things), but down the lane, Smith barely had to ask for much, simply allowing her to find a nice rhythm, basically clucking at her to keep the momentum going, finding her best the final 1/16, and what’s most impressive, is, she came home in 23.3 seconds despite that reserved ride. Saturday, she can draw from the experience of that effort, and here’s Drayden Van Dyke up, similar to Mike Smith in that both are not overly aggressive riders, and in a small field, where the best kick from the ¼ pole to the wire usually wins these types of races, we’ll be surprised if this one doesn’t take another step forward here today. SINGLE.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 3

“Negative Notes:

“3 Ciao Luna - Came home in 13.3 seconds going ⅞ on the main track, and that’s likely not gonna translate well enough here today.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“1 Kitty Boom Boom - Morning Line 5-2 / WCHR Line 7-5

“3 Ciao Luna - Morning Line 6-1 / WCHR Line 10-1

“6 An Eddie Surprise - Morning Line 2-1 / WCHR Line 4-1

“TOP PICK: KITTY BOOM BOOM (#1 5-2 Van Dyke) *SINGLE*

“SECOND CHOICE: HOT ON THE TRAIL (#4 3-1 Roman)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Anxious moments

At the end of the second race, Night at the Opera fell near the finish line. The green screens came out to hide what was happening from the public and you couldn’t help but think it was fatality No. 24 since Dec. 26. But, as he was being attended to, he just popped right back up and walked onto the van as if it was his own personal Uber. He got a good round of applause. The vets made a diagnosis that he fell because of exhaustion and he was taken straight to the barn rather than the medical facility.

And then, after the seventh race, Wandering Patrol also got a ride back to the barn after finishing third in the seventh race. Jockey Mario Gutierrez stood straight up and looked as if he was having trouble pulling the horse up. There was nothing obvious that looked as if a van was necessary, other than the track is being extremely cautious. The horse was taken back to the barn, so all indications are it was precautionary.

Santa Anita review

Not a lot to say about the feature, an allowance/optional claimer for Cal-bred fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs for $57,000. Tapitha Bonita ran a smart stalking race to win by 2 ¼ lengths for trainer Bill Spwar and jockey Tiago Pereira. She paid $6.00, $3.40 and $2.40. Chasin Lucas was second and Wandering Patrol finished third. (See above.)

“We’ve been trying to get her in route races, but they don’t seem to fill,” Spawr told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “This race was a last-minute decision, because we’d still like to run her long, but it worked out fine.”

Santa Anita preview

No other way to put it, but these are a couple of thin weekend cards. And by thin, we mean real thin. (Wait until you see Sunday’s racing.) Seven of the nine races on Saturday are six horses, just on the cusp of having to cancel the roulette wager. Let’s hope for no scratches. There are four turf races, all a mile since the downhill course is closed to sprints. The card starts at 1 p.m.

The feature is the $75,000 Mizdirection Stakes, which was moved off the downhill course and is now five furlongs on the main turf course. It’s for older fillies and mares. There are, you guessed it, six starters.

Go On Mary is the 2-1 morning-line favorite for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Rafael Bejarano. She is four-for 23 lifetime and has won at five furlongs. She hasn’t raced since Dec. 1.

There are co-second favorites in Painting Corners (Peter Miller/Joe Talamo) and Gliding By (Richard Baltas/Gutierrez). But are 5-2. Painting Colors is five-for-17 lifetime and has won twice at five furlongs. This is Talamo’s first ride on her. Gliding By is five-for-24 and is the one most likely disadvantaged by the cut back on the race’s length. She has never raced that short.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 6, 6, 7, 6, 6, 6, 6, 10.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:30 Aqueduct (3): $100,000 Bridgetown Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Regally Irish (8-5)

12:18 Oaklawn (4): Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Mitole (4-5)

12:54 Oaklawn (5): $100,000 maiden special weight, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Annie and Caroline (9-5)

1:24 Keeneland (7): Grade 3 $200,000 Ben Ali Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/18 miles. Favorite: Flameaway (3-1)

1:31 Oaklawn (6): $101,000 allowance optional claiming, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Rowayton (9-5)

1:57 Keeneland (8): $100,000 Giant’s Causeway Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Morticia (3-1)

2:09 Oaklawn (7): $100,000 maiden special weight3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Breaking News (5-2)

2:21 Aqueduct (8): $200,000 Top Flight Invitational Handicap, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Forever Liesl (2-1)

2:34 Keeneland (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Lexington Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Anothertwistafate (2-1)

3:12 Keeneland (10): Grade 1 $350,000 Jenny Wiley Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Rushing Fall (6-5)

3:22 Oaklawn (9): Grade 2 $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Giant Expectations (3-1)

4:43 Oaklawn (11): Grade 1 $1 million Arkansas Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Improbable (8-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 3 Mind Trick (6-1)

Since this is the only race on the card with more than seven starters, it was pretty easy to decide in which race to make a pick. Away since August and coming back as a gelding, this Doug O'Neill-trained sophomore tries something new going two turns on grass. He ran an OK third behind Sueno in his debut at Del Mar and appears to have trained steadily at San Luis Rey Downs for his return.

Friday’s result: Acclimate raced three-wide throughout but lacked a rally in the stretch and turned in a one-paced effort when finishing fifth in the sixth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 3 Luv Is All U Need (5-2)

She is back with own sex, drops in class and gets positive rider switch from Johnny Allen to veteran Christian Aragon. She tossed her head up in the air soon after the start of last fifth-place try when very wide into the stretch. Her maiden victory came under Aragon six races back and she has been facing much stronger since.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

TICK TOCK sent between horses early, angled in and dueled inside, took a short lead on the turn, inched away under left handed urging in midstretch and won clear. GADOT stalked between horses then outside a rival on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and gained the place. MISS OMNIPOTENT sent between rivals early, dueled outside the winner, fought back on the turn and bested the others. NEW YEAR NEW ME saved ground stalking the pace throughout and weakened in the final furlong. ACADIA FLEET stalked four wide then three deep on the backstretch, angled in off the rail on the turn and also weakened. STELLAR WAY between horses early, dropped back off the rail on the backstretch, angled in a bit off the fence on the turn and had little left for the drive. RHINE DAUGHTER a step slow to begin, settled off the rail, angled in for the turn, came out into the stretch and failed to menace.

CURLY'S MARK saved ground stalking the pace, cut the corner into the stretch, bid along the rail past the eighth pole, gained the advantage nearing the sixteenth pole and proved best under some urging. IRON CURTAIN stalked three deep then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and just held second between foes late. CAYATE sped to the early lead off the rail then stalked outside the winner, bid alongside the pacesetter on the turn, took the lead leaving the bend, drifted out some in midstretch then drifted in late and narrowly held third. BUCK DUANE stalked between horses and was in a bit tight nearing the half mile pole, pulled and lugged out some to be in close off heels early on the turn, came out three wide into the stretch and just missed the show outside foes late. ROYAL SEEKER between rivals early, chased off the rail, came out into the stretch and lacked a further response. NIGHT AT THE OPERA had speed outside foes, inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, dueled on the turn, came out between foes into the stretch, gave way then fell past the sixteenth pole and was vanned off.

SILKEN SPY sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, inched away leaving the second turn and drew off in the stretch under a couple taps of the whip and steady handling while being flagged with the stick in the final furlong. TAKE A LEAP saved ground stalking the winner throughout and bested the others. WHIRLING broke out and bobbled slightly, stalked outside a rival then three deep on the second turn and into the stretch and picked up the show. WIND TARTARE (FR) stalked outside a rival, was between foes leaving the second turn and into the stretch and weakened. IMPERIAL CREED bobbled slightly but broke with the field, dropped back along the inside early, lagged off the pace along the rail, came out some in the stretch and was not a threat.

IMPLICITLY sped to the early lead, angled in and set the pace inside, opened up on the backstretch, remained clear under urging then steady handling while drifting out some late and proved best. LIBERTY PARK chased off the rail, angled in on the second turn, came out a bit into the stretch and held second. SUNSET SEVEN chased off the inside then outside a rival on the second turn, also came out into the stretch and was edged for the place. LIGHTHOUSE POINT four wide early, chased off the rail then outside leaving the backstretch, came three wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL five wide into the first turn, angled to the inside on the backstretch then saved ground to no avail. GRYFFINDOR three deep early, angled in and settled inside, came out a bit into the stretch and lacked a further response. SMOKIN B four wide into the first turn, chased outside then three deep on the second turn and four wide into the stretch and weakened. SPEND IT saved ground off the pace, came out on the second turn and into the stretch, drifted in late and failed to menace. DERBY FACTOR settled between horses then outside a rival, dropped back on the second turn and gave way.

CE CE chased a bit off the rail then inside on the turn, bid outside the runner-up leaving the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead past the eighth pole and won clear under a steady hand ride. HONEYFROMTHESOUTH went up inside to duel for the lead, inched clear midway on the turn, fought back along the rail into the stretch and past the eighth pole and was clearly second best. INTO CHOCOLATE angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. HANG A STAR dueled between horses then stalked off the rail on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. HEATHERS GREY chased outside, angled in on the turn, continued a bit off the rail in the stretch and also weakened. GAS CAN broke a bit slowly, settled three deep then outside, came four wide into the stretch and did not rally. ROYALLY BLAND dueled three deep between foes, dropped back between horses on the turn and weakened. THOUGHT I'DMISSYOU a bit slow to begin, settled outside a rival, continued a bit off the rail on the turn and was not a threat. MIND FOR MISCHIEF dueled four wide between horses, stalked on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. CARRESSA pressed the pace five wide on the backstretch, dropped back on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and gave way. CALIFORNIA LOVE veered in sharply to be away behind the field, settled off the pace inside and failed to menace.

JIMMY CHILA saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch and rallied under urging to gain the lead three deep in late stretch and gamely prevailed. NORTH COUNTY GUY pressed the pace outside a rival, took the lead leaving the second turn, fought back in the stretch and was edged between foes late. CHOSEN VESSEL chased inside, came out into the stretch and was edged for second three deep on the line. COMBAT ZONE angled in and set a pressured pace inside, fought back along the rail leaving the second turn and in the stretch and was edged for the show. ACCLIMATE pulled his way along three deep then stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and was outfinished. LITTLE NO WAY three deep early, chased outside a rival or between horses to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. INCREDIBLE LUCK stalked outside a rival then three deep on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. SOUL BEAM broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then outside a rival, continued a bit off the fence on the second turn and did not rally.

TAPITHA BONITA stalked outside, came three deep into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up under an energetic hand ride, gained the lead nearing the sixteenth pole and won clear under tap on the shoulder with the whip turned down and steady handling. CHASIN LUCAS dueled outside a rival, took the lead leaving the turn, inched away into the stretch, fought back in midstretch, drifted in late and bested the others. WANDERING PATROL had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and held third, then was unsaddled at the end of the stretch and vanned off. EMPRESS OF LOV broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then came out on the backstretch, continued outside on the turn and three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PIED N TRUE angled in and chased inside, came out in the stretch and could not offer the necessary response. MIXED EMOTIONS chased between horses then off the rail, continued a bit off the fence on the turn and weakened. SUNRISE ROYALE stalked off the inside then angled in on the backstretch, saved ground thereafter and weakened.

OVER EMPHASIZE chased outside a rival, came out three deep into the stretch and rallied under urging to get up in the final stride. MAGICAL GRAY had speed between horses then angled in, dueled inside, inched away on the backstretch, kicked clear in the stretch and held on gamely but was edged on the line. SCATTERING MINK stalked inside then a bit off the rail, angled in on the second turn, came out into the stretch, split horses in midstretch and held third. HAUGHTY GIRL settled outside a rival then inside, came out into the stretch and put in a late bid at a minor award. STORMING LADY angled in and pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked just off the rail to the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SUNRISER stalked outside a rival then a bit off the rail, continued alongside a foe on the second turn and weakened in the stretch. PLAYA CHICA pulled along the inside and steadied nearing and into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace and weakened in the drive. MOLLY MCGEE broke a bit slowly, angled in and settled off the pace inside and was not a threat. CUYAHOGA FALLS also unhurried early and angled in outside a rival to the stretch and failed to menace.