Horse racing newsletter: It’s Belmont Stakes day

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we have a big 12-race card at Santa Anita.

Well, the third leg of the Triple Crown is up first today, and the longest leg is now the shortest. That pretty much covers Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Actually, it’s good to have one of the Triple Crown races back, no matter what order they come in.

Jon White gave a very comprehensive rundown on all the horses in the Friday newsletter, so you can refer back to that. You can just click here. And Ron Flatter looks at some of the firsts that Saturday’s race may bring.

And, I wrote an advance on the race for the web and print editions. Just click here.

But, before we move on it’s probably worth noting that there is only one Southern California horse in the Belmont Stakes and it was a late decision to enter Fore Left in the race. He was originally scheduled for the Woody Stephens Stakes, which is seven furlongs, way shorter than the Belmont’s 1 1/8 miles.

NBC, which is televising the race, held a conference call this week to discuss the Belmont. It had eight people on it. (Overkill?) In between congratulating NBC on how great it is that the network is showing the race, the participants had a few nuggets worth repeating.

I picked out this one from Randy Moss, who along with Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey are the people most worthy of listening to. They are the two analysts.

“The only horses right now that I can think of off the top of my head that are in training that we can say, ‘Oh, man, it’s just really too bad these horses aren’t in the Belmont,’ would be Honor AP and Authentic, the 1-2 finishers of the Santa Anita Derby,” Moss said.

“And the only reason they’re not in the Belmont is because Santa Anita got back running before Belmont Park did and scheduled the Santa Anita Derby sort of in conflict with the Belmont Stakes for whatever reason.

“They scheduled the Santa Anita Derby for June 6, so no horse is going to run the Santa Anita Derby and ship across the country and run in the Belmont Stakes two weeks later. If it weren’t for that, we’d probably have both horses in the Belmont Stakes, but Tiz The Law is the top dog right now in the 3-year-old division, and it’s huge that we do have him in the Belmont.”

Truth is, the West Coast usually isn’t that well represented in the Belmont unless there is a super horse, so this is not that unusual. But there was a time we were expecting Nadal and Charlatan to possibly be in New York on Saturday.

Maybe next year. On to the good stuff.

Ron Flatter’s weekly insights

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some thoughts on some firsts at the Belmont Stakes. Ron, what insights do you have?

“The custodians of racing history just cannot wait to hand out asterisks on this Triple Crown year. They are waiting to pounce as I was this week on Twitter when I heard an NBCSN promo for, ahem, ‘the’ Royal Ascot that included the word ‘coronated.’

“By the time the pandemic era ends, there will be a run on asterisks like there was this spring on toilet paper. (Come to think of it, one could be a brand name for the other.)

“So why not embrace it — the asterisk, that is? Saturday’s Belmont Stakes provides the perfect chance to craft stories about that one odd year that will baffle future generations like way back in 2019, when the NFL had challenge flags for pass interference. Can you imagine?

“Think of all the ways that this year’s run for the carnations will be different. More than just the shorter race, the smaller purse and moving up to bat leadoff in the Triple Crown.

“If Tiz The Law delivers this weekend, he will be the first New York-bred horse to win the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park. The only three times it happened before were in the 19th century at Jerome Park in what is now the Bronx. It happened most recently in 1882 with Forester. Before that, Fenian did it in 1869 and Ruthless in the first running of the race in 1867, when the president was on his way to being impeached. Call it déjà vu in reverse.

“Barclay Tagg trains Tiz The Law. He also trained Funny Cide, a New York-bred gelding that could have ended the drought 17 years ago. And since he had already won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, he could have been the first Triple Crown winner in 25 years. But history tells us that he came up short against Empire Maker.

“Now 82, Tagg could become the oldest trainer ever to win a Belmont Stakes. Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons was not quite 81 in 1955 when Nashua got him his last of six Belmont victories. That summer at Washington Park in Chicago, Nashua would outduel Swaps in one of racing’s most famous match races. Swaps’ exercise rider was a kid who went on to train a classic winner. When Art Sherman did that in 2014 with California Chrome, he was 77, making him the oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. Small world.

“If Max Player were to pull off the upset, Linda Rice would be the first woman ever to train a winner in a Triple Crown race. Of course, she he has been asked about it repeatedly. She certainly fielded those questions when she saddled Supervisor to a fifth-place finish in her first Belmont. That was in 2003, the year Funny Cide came up short for Tagg. Small world again.

“Based on the real dollars being bet in Las Vegas and in global futures markets, Tiz The Law is likely to be an odds-on, post-time favorite. Such short prices are usually reserved for when a horse can win the Triple Crown that day. Otherwise it has not happened in a Belmont since 1976, when Bold Forbes finished first at odds of 9-10. Yet four of the last six odds-on favorites for the first race of the Triple Crown season have lost, albeit in the Kentucky Derby. It just goes to show how much bettors really know.

“This is also the first one-turn race in the Triple Crown series since at least 1920, when the Belmont was last run clockwise. Descriptions of the course suggest that the 1½-mile race began somewhere near where the training track is now. It looped around a big turn that joined the main circuit for a run to the finish line maybe 150 yards from where the Islanders’ new arena is being built. When Sir Barton won what we now know as the 1919 Triple Crown, he raced over that course and got no asterisk.

“This weekend’s one-turn trip may start to make up for the years when the Belmont was run around nearly three turns. That was back from 1963 to 1967, when the race was moved to Aqueduct while the grandstand was rebuilt at Belmont Park. Northern Dancer in 1964 and Kauai King in 1966 could have finished Triple Crown sweeps at Aqueduct, but they failed. History does not show that either faced the specter of the asterisk.

“So, there is no shortage of oddities associated with this Belmont. But before footnotes are prepared for the winner, consider this. What if Tiz The Law wins Saturday? And then Aug. 8 in the Travers? And Sept. 5 in the Kentucky Derby? And Oct. 3 in the Preakness? And Nov. 7 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic? He still has to do these one at a time, but I am just wondering. What sort of asterisk would that deserve?

“Just let us all know if he should be coronated.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which offers two episodes to preview the Belmont Stakes. One features Las Vegas handicappers Chris Andrews, Johnny Avello, Duane Colucci and Vinny Magliulo. The other includes Tiz The Law’s jockey Manny Franco, Fox Sports’ Maggie Wolfendale Morley and XBTV’s Jeff Siegel. You can get one by clicking here. And, other by clicking here.

Santa Anita review

The feature Friday was the only allowance on the card, a 5½-furlong turf race for Cal-bred fillies and mares. Loud Loud Music, the favorite, stalked from off the lead and flew past Smiling Annie in mid-stretch to win by 2¼ lengths.

Loud Loud Music paid $6.00, $3.20 and $3.00. Smiling Annie was second and Shylock Eddie was third. Steve Miyadi was the winning trainer and Tiago Pereira got the ride.

Santa Anita preview

Santa Anita is going out with a lot of racing, 12 race cards both Saturday and Sunday. First post will be 12:30 p.m.. Saturday’s card has seven of the races on the turf and three stakes races, two of them graded. There are three allowance/optional claimer and two maiden specials. Pretty good for any day. The Belmont will be between the fifth and sixth race.

Here’s a look at the stakes:

Grade 3 $100,000 Wilshire Stakes: This one-mile turf race for fillies and mares has seven starters. The favorite, at 8-5, is Toinette for trainer Neil Drysdale and jockey Flavien Prat. This mare has won seven of- 1 lifetime, including three graded stakes. She is coming off a fourth in the Grade 1 Matriarch after a win in the Grade 2 Goldikova. Her last race was Dec. 1 of last year.

The second favorite is Keeper Ofthe Stars (always a tough name to type when you have auto-correct) at 9-5. She is trained by Jonathan Wong and ridden by Abel Cedillo. She is coming off a Grade 1 win in the Gamely Stakes on May 25. And one race back, she won the Grade 2 Buena Vista. The 4-year-old filly has won seven of 15 lifetime. Pretty good race at the top. Post is early at around 1 p.m.

Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera Stakes: This is 6½-furlong race for 3-year-olds. There is a heavy favorite at 4-5 in Collusion Illusion, who has won three of four races. His only loss was in the American Pharoah when he was eased and pulled up. His last race was a win by three lengths in an allowance/optional claimer and he previously won the Grade 2 Best Pal. Mark Glatt and Prat are the connections.

Ragtime Blues is the 2-1 second choice for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. He has won two of three but has never run at the stakes level. Post is scheduled for 4:32 p.m.

$150,000 Snow Chief Stakes: Even though it’s the biggest purse, it is ungraded because it is restricted to Cal-breds, who are 3 years old, going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The favorite, at 8-5, is Margot’s Boy for Craig Lewis and Drayden Van Dyke. This colt has won three of four including his last three at the maiden and allowance level. This gelding likes to race from the front.

There are two horses at 5-2 as second favorites. There is Sacred Rider for Northern California-based Steve Specht and Abel Cedillo and Indian Peak for Quin Howey and Mike Smith. Post is set for 5:02 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 7, 5, 12, 8, 8, 7, 11, 5, 7, 7, 10.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE 10: No. 5 California Kook (8-1)

California Kook with Flavien Prat riding for trainer Peter Miller and this tandem is winning 75% of their races in the last few days going eight of 12 going into Friday. This horse won easy last out under Prat going five wide into the stretch and then clearing the field. This is the second start off the bench and we have a sharp work for a horse racing protected. 8-1 is the best value price on Prat for the day.

Friday’s result: Tallien drifted out to 17-1 and tracked perfectly in third into the stretch. There was no catching the top two but Tallien raced great to run third and is a must-watch horse for Del Mar.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PDT.

9:25 Belmont (2): Grade 1 $250,000 Woody Stephens Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Echo Town (9-5)

10:42 Belmont (4): Grade 2 $150,000 Pennine Ridge Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Decorated Invader (6-5)

12:01 Belmont (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Wonder Again Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Sweet Melania (7-5)

12:25 Churchill Downs (6): $100,000 Audubon Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Field Pass (2-1)

12:54 Woodbine (6): $101,200 allowance, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Frankie Barone (5-2)

1:02 Santa Anita (2): Grade 3 $100,000 Wilshire Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf: Favorite: Toinette (4-5)

1:15 Belmont (8): Grade 1 $300,000 Acorn Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Gamine (1-1)

1:28 Woodbine (7): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Strike A Beat (8-5)

1:53 Belmont (9): Grade 1 $250,000 Jaipur Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Pure Sensation (5-2)

2:01 Churchill Downs (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Wise Dan Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Factor This (8-5)

2:30 Woodbine (9): $108,700 allowance/optional claimer, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Sir Sahib (5-2).

2:42 Belmont (10): Grade 1 $1-million Belmont Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Tiz The Law (6-5)

3:54 Ruidoso (10): $163,415 Mountain Top Futurity, NM-bred 2-year-olds, 5 furlongs. Favorite:

Aisle Runner (3-10)

4:32 Santa Anita (9): Grade 3 $100,000 Lazaro Barrera Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Collusion Illusion (4-5)

5:02 Santa Anita (10): $200,000 Snow Chief Stakes, Cal-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/ miles on turf. Favorite: Margot’s Boy (8-5)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 3 Rox Win (7-2)

He figures to improve after debuting with a sixth-place finish 29 nights ago after prepping with B+ drill before his first start. The gelding broke very slow and veered inward harshly to lose multiple lengths and his racing momentum. Rox Win was able to recover from there, finishing well while under a hand ride followed by a solid gallop out through the clubhouse turn. With an expected better start Friday evening, this runner should be a contender and at a good price tonight.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.