Horse racing newsletter: Final Belmont Stakes rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome to our horse racing newsletter as we get ready for a lot of turf races at Santa Anita this weekend.

Big weekend with the Belmont Stakes and the closing weekend of Santa Anita. Jon White will help preview the Belmont with his weekly rankings, which now has a Southern California-based horse.

But before we get to that, there is a little bit of news from the upcoming Del Mar summer meeting. Trevor Denman, after 36 years, is skipping this meeting because of concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. He says he’ll be back for the fall meeting.

Larry Collmus has been hired to replace him. Collmus is familiar because he calls the Triple Crown races and Breeders’ Cup for NBC. He was also the main caller at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga in New York until he couldn’t come to terms with the New York Racing Assn. So, his schedule is free.

Here’s a story on it. Just click here.

On to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Belmont Stakes rankings

As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Triple Crown trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here’s his Belmont Stakes rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Ten 3-year-olds are poised for Saturday’s 152nd running of the $1-million Belmont Stakes, which this year will be at 1 1/8 miles around one turn rather than its traditional distance of 1 1/2 miles around two turns.

“For the first time ever, the Belmont Stakes will kick off the Triple Crown series. The 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby will be on Sept. 5. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness Stakes will be on Oct. 3.

“In another first, Saturday’s Belmont will be held without owners or customers.

“The first four finishers will earn 150-60-30-15 points toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby’s new 20-horse starting gate.

“These are my rankings for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, courtesy of Xpressbet:

“1. TIZ THE LAW (6-5 morning-line favorite, PP 8). Jockey: Manny Franco. Trainer: Barclay Tagg. Last week’s rank: No. 1.

“The case for: There is much to like, hence his 6-5 morning-line favoritism. The belief here is his odds probably will be 4-5 or lower at race time. He’s four for four when racing on a fast track and it appears the track will be fast. He’s two for two this year, winning the Holy Bull Stakes by three lengths and Florida Derby by 4 1/4 lengths. Franco knows the Constitution colt well. They figure to get a good trip after exiting the gate from post 8. Look for Tiz the Law to lurk within close range of the early pace, then pounce when Franco pushes the button. Another positive is it appears Tiz the Law has trained beautifully up to Saturday’s race. Owner Sackatoga Stable and Tagg came to the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 2003 with Funny Cide, who was bidding for a Triple Crown sweep. But Funny Cide finished third as an even-money favorite behind Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted. Because of Funny Cide, Sackatoga Stable and Tagg will be all the more appreciative if Tiz the Law wins.

“The case against: He has not raced recently, having not started since the March 28 Florida Derby. But even this is not too much of a concern in that it’s not an especially long layoff, plus he’s in the hands of an expert trainer. Maybe the biggest thing going against Tiz the Law is he’s a New York-bred. Guess what? It’s hard to believe, but no New York-bred has won the Belmont in 138 years. The only three New York-breds to have won this New York race were Ruthless in the inaugural 1867 running, Fenian in 1869 and Forester in 1882.

“2. TAP IT TO WIN (6-1, PP 1) Jockey: John Velazquez. Trainer: Mark Casse. Last week’s rank: No. 2.

“The case for: If he runs like he did in his dazzling allowance victory on June 4 at Belmont Park when he crushed a good field and completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:39.76, he will be one tough dude Saturday. Whenever a horse posts a time like that, it’s very impressive. He was just .54 off the track record. That win also shows that Tap It to Win likes the main track at Belmont. This is important. Not every horse likes the oval also known as ‘big sandy.’ Casse has always been high on this Florida-bred Tapit ridgling, but a sparkling maiden win at Saratoga on the Travers undercard last year was followed by resounding defeats in his next two starts. After losing the Breeders’ Futurity by 43 1/2 lengths at Keeneland in early October, Tap It to Win lost the Street Sense by 21 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs last October. He injured himself in the Street Sense. Tap It to Win ‘hit his sesamoid so hard coming out of the gate that doctors had to surgically take a piece of his sesamoid out,’ Casse told Daily Racing Form’s David Grening. Tap It to Win has returned to win both starts so far this year. He is expected to show early zip Saturday. He led past every pole in his impressive June 4 win, but he also has won from off the pace. By the way, Casse is on a good roll when it comes to Triple Crown races. He’s seeking his third straight victory in a Triple Crown event after winning last year’s Preakness with War of Will and Belmont with Sir Winston.

“The case against: The surprise entry of Fore Left does not help. Without Fore Left, there was a chance that Tap It to Win might get away with an uncontested early lead. That’s unlikely now. Inasmuch as Tap It to Win has never won a stakes race, he just might not be good enough to win this race. Also, whenever a horse runs a big race, there is a possibility the horse will regress or ‘bounce.’ Tap It to Win certainly is a candidate to regress off his June 4 race in that not only was it fast, he is coming back quickly in just 10 days. Keep in mind that Got Stormy had but seven days between starts when she won Saratoga’s Fourstardave Handicap by 2 1/2 lengths last year in a lights-out performance.

“3. SOLE VOLANTE (9-2, PP 2) Jockey: Luca Panici. Trainer: Patrick Biancone. Last week’s rank: No. 3.

“The case for: He’s capable of producing a powerful late kick, as was the case when he won the 1 1/16-mile San F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He was sent away as the 3-2 favorite in the subsequent Tampa Bay Derby at 1 1/8 miles, but had to settle for second when unable to catch King Guillermo. Sole Volante then rallied from last in a field of six to win a one-mile allowance/optional claiming contest at Gulfstream on June 10.

“The case against: He has never raced on the Belmont Park main track, so the Kentucky-bred Karakontie gelding is a question mark on that surface. And he has even a shorter period of time between races than Tap It to Win. Sole Volante will be racing again only 10 days after his June 10 triumph. But Biancone demonstrated in 1984 that he can keep a horse in top form even when the horse doesn’t have a whole bunch of time between starts. From Oct. 2 to Nov. 12 in 1984, the Biancone-trained All Along won important races in France, Canada, New York and Maryland en route to being voted America’s Horse of the Year. And if you think 10 days between races isn’t much time, how about what trainer Woody Stephens did with Conquistador Cielo in 1982? After Consquistador Cielo won the Met Mile on Monday, May 31, by 7 1/4 lengths against his elders, he splashed home a 14-length winner on a sloppy track just five days later in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont.

“4. DR POST (5-1, PP 9) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Last week’s rank: No. 4.

“The case for: Though he has only three races under his belt, it looks like he could prove a tough customer Saturday off his back-to-back wins at Gulfstream in his two starts this year. He overcame a troubled trip to win Gulfstream’s 1 1/16-mile Unbridled Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths. Pletcher has said that while Dr Post ‘lacks a little bit of experience in terms of races run, he got a lot of education in the Unbridled. He was kind of boxed in through a good portion of the race and ate a lot of dirt. We were happy that not only was he able to win, but kind of overcome some adversity and get some education.’ A big plus for Dr Post is his jockey, who is widely considered to be the best in the country. Dr Post probably will be about in the same position early as Tiz the Law. But will Dr Post have the same sort of punch in the lane as the big favorite?

“The case against: A lack of racing experience is a concern. Even Pletcher seemed to concede that point when saying the doctor ‘lacks a little bit of experience in terms of races run.’ Another concern is Dr Post lost the only time he’s raced on the Belmont Park main track, finishing fourth in a maiden sprint last year. Another concern is the 1 1/8-mile Belmont will be the farthest he has ever run.

“5. PNEUMATIC (8-1, PP 10) Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Last week’s rank: No. 8.

“The case for: As in the case of Dr Post, though Pneumatic only has three races, it looks like he could prove a tough customer off his two wins and a solid third in the 1 1/16-mile Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill on May 23. Dr Post did not win the Winn, he battled for the lead from the beginning and held on well enough late to lose by 1 3/4 lengths to the undefeated Maxfield. If Maxfield were in the Belmont, he would be one of the favorites. After being far from disgraced against Maxfield, it stands to reason that Pneumatic should not be taken lightly Saturday.

“The case against: As with Dr Post, a lack of racing experience is a concern for Pneumatic. Additional concerns are he’s never raced at Belmont Park and this will be the first time he’s been asked to go farther than 1 1/16 miles.

“6. MODERNIST(15-1, PP 4) Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Bill Mott. Last week’s rank: No. 6.

“The case for: Mott had been targeting the June 27 Ohio Derby rather than the Belmont for Modernist. But after Modernist worked five furlongs in a sharp :59.20 last Sunday on the Belmont Park main track, the trainer decided to go ahead and put the colt in the Belmont. This move by Mott would seem to indicate he feels Modernist is going to give a good account of himself Saturday. Modernist was good enough to win a division of the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on Feb. 15. He has not started since finishing third in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby at that same track on March 21. It is a plus for Modernist that he’s already been victorious at the 1 1/8-mile Belmont distance. While it does look like Modernist needs to run better than ever before in order to win the Belmont, one gets the feeling that perhaps we have not seen his best yet. And that makes him dangerous.

“The case against: One could reasonably interpret Mott’s serious consideration of originally targeting the Ohio Derby for Modernist as a negative. After all, if Mott had been totally confident that Modernist was going to be a major player in the Belmont, why would he have given any thought to the Ohio Derby? Another concern is that while Modernist did have a sharp workout last Sunday on the Belmont Park main track, the only time he’s ever raced on that track he finished fifth.

“7. MAX PLAYER (15-1, PP 3) Jockey Joel Rosario. Trainer: Linda Rice. Last week’s rank: No. 7.

“The case for: The owners of Max Player were so desirous of having Rosario ride the colt that they must pay a double jockey’s fee due to making a late switch from Dylan Davis to Rosario, the stewards ruled. Consequently, whatever Rosario earns in the Belmont, Davis likewise will get. The Daily Racing Form reported that George Hall, who owns a majority interest in Max Player, said he wanted the experience of Rosario, who won the 2019 Belmont Stakes aboard Sir Winston. One thing Max Player does not need to prove is he can win a 1 1/8-mile race after having done so with a 3 1/4-length victory in the Withers at Aqueduct earlier this year. Max Player has two wins and a second from three career starts. If he gets the job done Saturday, Rice would become the first female trainer to win a Triple Crown race. Though Max Player has not raced since the Withers on Feb. 1, Rice said Wednesday that ‘he has improved dramatically in the last 60 days.’

“The case against: Even though Rice has been pleased with the way Max Player has trained leading up to the Belmont, the truth is the lack of a race since Feb. 1 is not ideal. This will be the toughest group Max Player has faced. And not having previously raced on the Belmont Park main track is still another knock.

“8. FARMINGTON ROAD (15-1, PP 5) Jockey Javier Castellano. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Last week’s rank: No. 9.

“The case for: Pletcher is a three-time winning Belmont Stakes trainer, though those victories (with Rags to Riches in 2007, Palace Malice in 2013 and Tapwrit in 2017) all came at the usual 1 1/2-mile distance. Dr Post and Farmington Road give Pletcher two chances to get a fourth Belmont Stakes win. Farmington Road won a maiden at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 12. In three subsequent starts, he has dropped back early and rallied in the stretch when fourth in a division of the Risen Star Stakes won by Mr. Monomoy, second in the Oaklawn Stakes won by Mr. Big News, then fourth in the Arkansas Derby won by Nadal. It’s not hard to envision Farmington Road making a late run to get into the superfecta. But can he mow them all down? Probably not, but stranger things have happened.

“The case against: He’s won only once in six career starts. Chances are he just is not good enough to win a major event like the Belmont when still eligible for a race restricted to non-winners of two lifetime. He looks like he might be the sort who comes on late but, more often than not, does not get the W. In his only start on the Belmont Par main track, he lost by nine lengths.

“9. FORE LEFT (30-1, PP 6) Jockey Jose Ortiz. Trainer Doug O’Neill. Last week’s rank: Not ranked.

“The case for: A surprise entrant in the Belmont, he originally had been slated in the shorter Woody Stephens Stakes at seven furlongs Saturday. But O’Neill feels that Fore Left has trained so well on the main track at Belmont Park that it’s worth taking a shot with him in the Belmont Stakes. It is interesting that Fore Left has won the last two times he’s raced on dirt. He won Santa Anita’s Sunny Slope Stakes on dirt last Oct. 20 and the UAE 2000 Guineas on dirt Feb. 6 in Dubai in his only 2020 start. Sandwiched between those two wins were defeats in the Golden Nugget Stakes on synthetic footing at Golden Gate and Cecil B. DeMille Stakes on turf at Del Mar. Look for Fore Left to show early speed. Also keep in mind that in Fore Left’s lone start on the main track at Belmont, he won the Tremont Stakes last year by 4 1/2 lengths. Yes, Fore Left is going to be a big price in the wagering Saturday. But the belief here is it’s not out of the question for him to get into the superfecta. Can he shock the world and win? It seems unlikely.

“The case against: A lack of enthusiasm for Fore Left to win Saturday is understandable when he’s had only one race in early February. He was supposed to have run in the UAE Derby in Dubai on March 28, but that race was scrapped because of the coronavirus pandemic. In the 1 1/8-mile Belmont, he will have to race farther than ever before. And quite frankly, winning this long of a race against this caliber of competition looks like a tall task for him.

“10. JUNGLE RUNNER (50-1, PP 7) Jockey Reylu Gutierrez. Trainer: Steve Asmussen. Last week’s rank: Not ranked.

“The case for: He has one of the best trainers in the game. Asmussen, who sent out Creator to win the 2016 Belmont, had 8,872 career wins through June 17, according to Equibase. But it looks like Asmussen’s best chance by far to get his second Belmont victory is with Pneumatic.

“The case against: He has lost his last four starts by 14, 18 3/4, 22, then 22 1/2 lengths. Enough said.”

Santa Anita preview

There’s one thing you can be guaranteed about Friday’s nine-race card. There will be seven first-time winners. The 1 p.m. card has five maiden specials and two maiden claimers. You can also count on there not being many blades of grass left on the turf course, as it is going to get a pounding over this closing weekend. On Friday there are five turf races, seven on Saturday and seven more on Sunday.

The feature on Friday is an allowance/optional claimers for Cal-bred fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. It carries the day’s high purse of $51,000. The favorite, at 5-2, is Harper’s Gallop for trainer Jack Carava and jockey Umberto Rispoli. She has won two-of-nine lifetime and is coming off a $25,000 claiming win at a mile.

The second favorite is Smiling Annie, at 3-1, for Mark Glatt and Abel Cedillo. She is coming off a 3 ½-length win in a 5 ½-furlong starter optional claimer. She has won two-of-15 lifetime. Post is around 4 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9, 6, 9, 8, 10 (4 also eligible), 6, 9, 6, 10.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick

RACE ONE: No. 2 Tallien (12-1)

Tallien made the first start in over a year and the U.S. debut on May 30 and put in a nice late move to run fourth, two lengths back. A 12-1 morning line is nice as the top class in the field. This is the most wide-open race on the card Friday and for that reason I am spreading in my Pick 5 ticket. For value I am also looking at Munnings’ Pilot from trainer Richard Baltas with Umberto Rispoli riding at 8-1. Racing protected there are four straight sharp workouts.

Sunday’s result: Colonial Creed drifted out to 7-1, a fantastic value for red-hot jockey Flavien Prat. Flavien did not disappoint and under a simply perfect ride four-wide won the race with a head bob. ‘Creed paid $17.60 for the win

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day. (Of course, that’s when there is racing.)

Los Alamitos weekend preview

It’s time to preview the only nighttime racing in the area and for that we turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“California’s first million-dollar race of the year, the Grade 1, $1,115,000 Ed Burke Million Futurity tops racing action this weekend at Los Alamitos Race Course. The 350-yard dash is on Sunday night and features 10 juveniles. Chance To Excel is the freshman to beat after a scintillating victory in the trials on June 7. The son of Favorite Cartel posted the fastest qualifying time of :17.311 after winning his trial by one length. Chance To Excel’s winning time was the fastest by a 2-year-old here at 350 yards since multiple AQHA champion Heza Dasha Fire won the 2014 Ed Burke Million Futurity in :17.22.

Chance To Excel’s main rival figures to be La Jaconde, a one-length winner in her trial race in the fifth-fastest qualifying time of :17.631. Prior, La Jaconde made an impressive late run to win the Grade II Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity on May 17. Also sired by Favorite Cartel, La Jaconde will look to become only the 12th juvenile to win both the Kindergarten and Ed Burke since 1955. The last to sweep the two futurities was AQHA champion Walk Thru Crystal in 2015. Terrific Temper is the second fastest qualifier and will look to become the first maiden to win the Ed Burke Million since First Down Illusion in 2010.

“There are four undefeated runners in the field: SC Divas Cartel Man, Jess Lyndes Reason, Jess Paint Me and Thats R Best Card. The field will also feature Coronas Big Flash, BF Outfoosed and Strange Fellow.

“Racing gets started on Friday night with Mo Blue returning for the first time since winning the $109,500 Los Alamitos Maiden Stakes Feb. 16. The gelding by Apollitical Jess will head the $11,825 allowance main event in the eighth and final race on Friday. First post is 6 p.m. The field will also have Giving Freely, winner of the John Deere California Juvenile last year. The Corona Cartel filly last ran third in the Adequan California Derby on May 24.

“This has been a big week for Rob Lowe, director of racing and chief operating officer for Grants Pass Downs, as the track located in southwest Oregon opened its live racing meet on Tuesday. With no racing on weekends at Grants Pass, Lowe should be able to find some time to watch his talented quarter horse Up Is Up in Saturday’s $11,825 allowance feature at Los Alamitos. First post is 6:30 p.m.

“Lowe owns the sophomore in partnership with Butte Crest Ranch. Trained by James Glenn, Jr., Up Is Up has been sharp in his two starts this year, breaking his maiden by an impressive 1 3/4 lengths on April 17 before finishing second to the highly regarded Doctor Gene in a conditioned allowance on May 30.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick

RACE SEVEN: No. 5 Walk Around (8-1)

She represents a shed row that scores with its share of longshot winners. In her last effort, this long-striding filly leaned back at the start to lose her best chance right from the start. She was crossed by quicker rivals, but she was able to finish a better than looked fifth while doing the work on her own. She needs a clean start, but even if she is behind early on, she is capable of making up ground against this group and has a solid jockey/trainer (22%) combo on her side.

And now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.