Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Derby rankings are here

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome to our horse racing newsletter, as we get ready for racing to resume at Del Mar with a four-day week.

Good to be back after some unexpected days off during which the highlight was Saturday’s Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Authentic was the winner, but there is more to the story. Jon White talks about it in depth later, so keep reading.

Also in the news was that the California Horse Racing Board was satisfied with the horse and rider safety plan that Los Alamitos submitted so that the track can continue to run at night. You probably will notice some smaller fields as some horses may not pass the pre-race reviews and inspections. You can read about it. Just click here.

Now, on to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Triple Crown trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here are his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“Authentic is sort of like the kid in school who goofs around, yet somehow manages to get good grades.

“He won last Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park as the 3-5 favorite, but he darn near blew it.

“Mike Smith rode Authentic in the $1-million event. It was the first time the two of them had teamed up.

“Smith certainly got a taste of just how quirky the Bob Baffert-trained Authentic can be.

“On the backstretch, while Authentic was cruising along in front by a length or so and getting away with setting a moderate pace (:23.60, :47.52), he jumped some shadows cast by the various distance poles, according to Smith.

“Ny Traffic raced closest to Authentic early. In fact, Authentic and Ny Traffic raced first and second, in that order, all the way around the Monmouth oval.

“In upper stretch, Authentic drew away to have a 2½-length advantage with a furlong to go. It appeared that he was on his way to a Haskell victory after he seemingly had put away Ny Traffic.

“But Authentic’s lead diminished in the final furlong when he ‘shut it down’ and ‘went to idling,’ as Baffert put it. Authentic just barely held on to eke out a nose victory while posting a final time 1:50.46. Ny Traffic, who was 5-1 in the wagering, finished second in what was a frustratingly narrow defeat. Dr Post, the 9-5 second favorite, lacked early speed, never threatened and ended up third, 4½ lengths behind Ny Traffic in the field of seven.

“After the Haskell, Smith told Baffert that when Authentic lost focus in upper stretch, Smith started smooching to the colt. Baffert explained to Smith why Authentic likely did not respond to the rider’s smooching. ‘Um, Mike,’ Baffert told Smith, ‘he had earplugs in.’

“Goofy behavior in a race is nothing new for Authentic. In Santa Anita’s one-mile Sham Stakes back on Jan. 5, he built up a commanding eight-length lead at the eighth pole. But then he ducked inward twice in the final furlong. The first time he ducked in, he nearly hit the inside rail and flirted with unseating jockey Drayden Van Dyke.

“Baffert decided earplugs might help Authentic keep his mind on his business when the colt made his next start in Santa Anita’s 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes on March 7. Authentic has raced with earplugs ever since.

“On his best behavior in the San Felipe, Authentic won by 2½ lengths. Honor A.P. finished second.

“Authentic’s lone defeat to date came in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby on June 6. He veered outward in the first few strides after breaking from the outside post position. Consequently, Authentic found himself vying for the lead while three-wide entering the clubhouse turn. He continued as a three-wide pace factor all the way to the top of the stretch, then had to settle for second when finishing 2 3/4 lengths behind Honor A.P.

“Even after five races, Authentic is still a work in progress. ‘He’s a late [May 5] foal,’ Baffert said Sunday. ‘He’s maturing, but he’s a quirky little guy.’

“Baffert is considering adding blinkers to Authentic’s equipment when the colt makes his next start in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Sept. 5. But the trainer is a bit hesitant to add blinkers because that could backfire by Authentic possibly getting keyed up or rank early in the Run for the Roses. It’s important that does not happen, especially since there is some doubt that going 11/4 miles will be something that Authentic wants to do.

“While Authentic does have four wins and a second from five career starts, Baffert is aware that the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt probably needs to do better in order to win the Kentucky Derby. ‘I’m happy with him, but he still has a lot of improving to do,’ the five-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer said.

“That there are plenty of skeptics regarding Authentic’s ability to succeed when stretching out to 1 1/4 miles was evidenced by the betting in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool 6 that closed last Sunday. After a horse wins a race like the Haskell on Saturday, the odds normally would go down. But after Authentic was as low as 6-1 early Saturday, his odds actually rose after the Haskell, closing at 9-1 on Sunday.

“Authentic drops a notch to No. 5 in my Kentucky Derby rankings this week after being No. 4 last week.

“Not surprisingly, Tiz The Law ended up as the KDFW Pool 6 favorite at 5-2. A pair of SoCal-based 3-year-olds, Honor A.P. and Uncle Chuck, closed at 6-1 in KDFW Pool 6. Art Collector was 8-1.

“Tiz The Law races next in Saratoga’s Runhappy Travers at 1 1/4 miles on Aug. 8. Barclay Tagg trains the New York-bred Constitution colt, winner of this year’s Holy Bull Stakes, Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes.

“Honor A.P. makes his next start in Del Mar’s 1 1/16-mile Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1. John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame trains Honor A.P., a Kentucky-bred Honor Code ridgling.

“Uncle Chuck, two for two, most likely runs next in the Travers. The Baffert-trained Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt won the 1 1/8-mile Los Alamitos Derby by four lengths on July 4 following a seven-length maiden victory in a one-mile race June 12 at Santa Anita.

“Trainer Tom Drury Jr. announced this week that Art Collector will start in the 1 1/8-mile Runhappy Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9. Three for three this year, the Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt won Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths on July 11.

“These are the 20 leading point-earners considered Kentucky Derby candidates listed by Churchill Downs in the order they rank, with the first tiebreaker being non-restricted stakes earnings:

“1. Tiz The Law (272 points)

“2. Authentic (200)

“3. Honor A.P. (120)

“4. Ny Traffic (110)

“5. Art Collector (100)

“6. King Guillermo (90)

“7. Dr Post (80)

“8. Ete Indien (74)

“9. Modernist (70)

“10. Mischevious Alex (50)

“11. Country Grammer (50)

“12. Enforceable (43)

“13. Swiss Skydiver (40)

“14. Shivaree (40)

“15. Max Player (40)

“16. Major Fed (38)

“17. Storm the Court (36)

“18. Thousand Words (33)

“19. Anneau d’Or (32)

“20. Sole Volante (30)

“The others with 20 or more points are:

“21. Finnick The Fierce (25)

“22. Pneumatic (25)

“23. Uncle Chuck (20)

“24. Candy Tycoon (20)

“25. Winning Connection (20)

“26. Caracaro (20)

“The remaining four races offering Kentucky Derby points are the:

“--Shared Belief Stakes (50-20-10-5) at Del Mar on Aug. 1.

“--Travers Stakes (100-40-20-10) at Saratoga on Aug. 8.

“--Ellis Park Derby (50-20-10-5) at Ellis Park on Aug. 9.

“--Pegasus Stakes (20-8-4-2) at Monmouth Park on Aug. 15.

“Here are this week’s rankings for the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Honor A.P. (1)

2. Tiz The Law (2)

3. Art Director (3)

4. Uncle Chuck (6)

5. Authentic (4)

6. Dr Post (5)

7. Cezanne (7)

8. Max Player (8)

9. King Guillermo (9)

10. Country Grammer (10)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Del Mar preview

Racing is back at Del Mar for a four-day week with all posts at 2 p.m. Given the full fields, bettors are likely to reward the track with bigger-than-average handles. If you look at the last six races for the Pick Six, the average field size is 11. There is no marquee race; for that, wait until the weekend. There are two minor stakes, four allowance/optional claimers and five turf races.

The first stakes is the $125,000 Fleet Treat Stakes for Cal-bred 3-year-old fillies going seven furlongs. The favorite in the five-horse race is Big Sweep, at 9-5, for trainer Mark Glatt and jockey Flavien Prat. She won her first two races, including the Echo Eddie, before a third place in the Melair Stakes last out.

Smiling Shirlee is the second favorite at 2-1 for Jeff Bonde and Mike Smith. She has won three of nine races, including two of five this year. She was second last out in the Melair and won the Evening Jewel in her previous race. Post will be around 3:30 p.m.

The other stakes is the $65,000 Daisycutter Handicap for fillies and mares going five furlongs on the turf. Stealthediamonds is the 5-2 favorite for Mike Puype and Agapito Delgadillo. Jo Jo Air is the 7-2 second choice for Wesley Ward and Prat. Post will be near 6 p.m.

Here are the field sixes, in order: 6, 8, 7, 5, 9, 11, 12 (2 also eligible), 10, 9, 12 (2 ae), 12 (2 ae).

Bob Ike’s DM pick of the day

ELEVENTH RACE: No. 1 Lincoln City (8-1)

We almost got the money at 28-1 the last time this colt ran but had to settle for second (beaten a neck) after battling on the lead every step of the way under a seven-pound apprentice jockey advantage. The Eric Kruljac-trained colt gets a big rider switch to Abel Cedillo and doesn’t necessarily need the lead to win. If Dark Prince goes as expected, he can sit behind in a good stalking trip from the rail post and beat these at a square price.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DM pick

RACE EIGHT: No.1 Big Dress (6-1)

RACE ELEVEN: No. 4 City Rage (6-1)

A little rant here. How is Umberto Rispoli not riding every race while questionable lower-level jockeys are? He has rides in only five-of-11 races on Friday. For that reason, I am making it Rispoli day. I’m using all his horses Friday but focusing on the two horses priced 6-1 or more. In the eighth race, he rides the debut of Big Dress for trainer Tim Yakteen for owner George Kirkorian. George had a big meet last summer. Sire is 27% in debuts, and this jockey/trainer combination is winning 33% and two-for-two here. In race 11, he rides City Rage for trainer Mark Glatt. Third off the layoff, this trainer wins 24%. Rispoli rode for the first time last out going 5½ furlongs and came late to miss by less than two lengths. I love betting second time Rispoli when he does that.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only track in California racing at night. So let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“For the first time in the 21-year history of California Breeders Champions Night, the marquee event for California-bred quarter horses will be held over two nights. The $322,000 Governor’s Cup Futurity will be on Saturday and the $185,000 Governor’s Cup Derby and $100,000 Spencer Childers California Breeders Champions Night on Sunday. First post for Saturday’s eight-race program is around 7:30 p.m. — about a half-hour after the final race at Del Mar.

“The Governor’s Cup Futurity at 350 yards is one of four quarter horse stakes on Saturday. Others include the $25,000 Sprint Stakes, which will feature an outstanding matchup between two-time Grade 1 winner Tequila Sangria and razor-sharp stakes winner Alamode. The $25,000 Freshman Stakes will feature Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity finalist La Reina Del Sur, two-time winner Sassies Blues Girl and the solid sprinter Monopolist. The Sophomore Claiming Stakes will have eight horses going for a $17,500 purse. J. Francisco Diaz’s Check My Cartel is one of the top names in the race after winning three times since November and finishing in the money in his last three races. Horses in this race can be claimed for $10,000 each.

“The top race on Saturday is the Governor’s Cup Futurity led by Haras Portofino’s Untuckit, who posted the fastest qualifying time of :17.71 when winning his trial by lengths on July 11. Eduardo Nicasio, the third leading rider in California Champions history with 14 wins, will ride the Favorite Cartel gelding for trainer Chris O’Dell. Purchased for $50,000 at the Los Alamitos Equine Sale, Untuckit will start from the three and enters the final after finishish in the money his last three starts.

“In the Governor’s Cup Derby on Sunday night, fastest qualifier Nomadic will headline a strong lineup which includes Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity runner-up Cattail Cove and Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity winner Runforyourlife. It was the Ed Allred-owned Nomadic who was most impressive during the derby trials on July 12, as he won his heat by lengths over both Cattail Cove and Runforyourlife.

“Allred could possibly win both big races on Sunday night, as he has big favorite Chocolatito in the Spencer Childers at 400 yards. Chocolatito won the Grade 1 Vessels Maturity on July 25. Cole Man 47 and Bail Czech, the fourth- and fifth-place finishers, respectively, in the Vessels Maturity are among the top contenders in the Spencer Childers. Tools In The Sky, an All American Derby finalist last year, will be making his first start since running fifth in the Zia Park Championship on Dec. 1.

“The weekend starts on Friday night with a seven-race program starting at 7:35 p.m.”

Chris Wade’s Friday LA pick

RACE SEVEN: No. 6 Fed X Cartel (9-2)

She has proved to be very consistent at this level of competition and has many figures on my comparison speed charts that are very competitive in this closely matched event. In her most recent start 28 nights ago, the filly broke a tad slow in a 110-yard race but turned on the jets right away to finish third before galloping out nicely past the wire. With a perfect outside draw that should ensure a clear path to the finish line, we’ll her the nod to deliver at a nice price. She also has a solid jockey/trainer combo that wins at a 29% ratio.

Now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.