Horse racing newsletter: Biggest day of the Del Mar meeting

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we learn that the Kentucky Derby will be run without fans.

The news of the day is that the Kentucky Derby has joined the Indy 500 and golf’s Masters, not to mention all major team sports, and will run the race without spectators. So, let’s get right to Ron Flatter’s take on this development.

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network and Horse Racing Nation. He updates us on Churchill Downs’ decision to run the Derby without spectators.

“It is too easy to say now that it was sad news that rolled out of Louisville in what seemed like a garden-variety news dump on a Friday afternoon. That was when Churchill Downs Inc., one big corporate step above Churchill Downs the racetrack, announced that no fans would be admitted to next month’s Kentucky Derby.

“But sad came months ago.

“Even before it was brought home by the laying off of more than 33 million people from their jobs or underscored by the deaths of 175,000 American COVID-19 victims, the story of sad began when Adam Silver decided in March that the NBA and, by extension, all sports should stop. All sports, that is, except the one with which we are intimately familiar.

“Yet racing finally had its Rudy Gobert moment Friday afternoon. While we were puffing out our chests all spring and summer and boasting how our game never completely stopped and how the very need to care for horses offered a pathway to continue the sport, we should have seen this coming.

“Remember when the Ivy League canceled all its postseason basketball and how it seemed like a knee-jerk reaction to this percolating bug that was going around? Racing’s equivalent came Tuesday, when Kentucky Downs did an about-face and announced that it would hold its meet next month without fans. If that was not the water-cooler bottle making bubbles just before the 5.9 earthquake, then please point me in the right direction.

“ ’The White House has announced that Jefferson County and the City of Louisville are in a red zone based on increases in cases,’ Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky) said in a statement. ‘I applaud Churchill Downs for making the right and responsible decision.’

“Make no mistake. Beshear has been a loud and clear presence in Kentucky racing since the pandemic sent us all behind closed doors. Until he offered his blessing, Churchill Downs was not allowed to open for racing during the spring. In hindsight, if the racetrack bosses had not pushed the Derby back to Sept. 5, Beshear might have done it for them.

“At the time, which was March 17, Churchill Downs CEO Bill Carstanjen said, “We feel confident we are going to run the Kentucky Derby and run it with a crowd. It’s a participatory event.”

“It is too easy now to say that Carstanjen was kicking the can down the road. Did we not think that the coronavirus would blow over between March and September?

“At the same time it is hard to imagine that Carstanjen and Beshear do not have one another pre-programmed on their telephones. It seems entirely reasonable that a governor would make sure that the keeper of his state’s biggest moneymaking tourist attraction was kept up to date on inside information about how long it might take to harness the cause of this ever-growing pandemic.

“In hindsight the first real hint of trouble for a normalish Derby came nearly two months ago, when Churchill Downs announced that it would push all general-admission ticket holders onto the infield with ‘guests consistently and frequently encouraged to wear a mask at all times.’ A request rather than a mandate to cover noses and mouths was like a red light in New York City. It was not a command. It was an advisory, and it was never going to work.

“Then came last week’s announcement from Churchill Downs that the Derby crowd would be capped at 23,000 with refunds on all general-admission tickets. Average Joes need not dress up this year. This was strictly going to be for the high rollers. The tidal wave was building.

“It turned out that it was only a matter of time before the gates would be closed to pretty much everyone except the same people who make maiden races happen on a Wednesday. As frustrating as that sounds, it may also be looked at as reassuring. Because racing has gone on. And even without so much as a single fan at so many racetracks, it has gone on complete with record-breaking handles for its biggest days. God bless technology — and your friendly ADW.

“Without 170,000 fans, tourists, railbirds, glitterati, touts and drinkers of that liquid toothpaste known as the mint julep, the Derby may not feel the same. But based on all the dollars that have poured into races like the Belmont and the Haskell and the Travers and race cards at Saratoga and Del Mar — and even Fonner Park and Will Rogers Downs — there is every reason to believe that last year’s $250-million Derby handle will be matched and exceeded next month.

“So, is ‘sad’ the word to describe Friday’s news? Sure. Let’s go with that. But don’t let that ruin the party for the rest of us. For the first time in 14 years, I will join you in watching the Derby not from beneath the Twin Spires but, instead, from beneath the ceiling over my big-screen TV.

“All things considered, that makes me very happy.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also writes for Horse Racing Nation and hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Next month’s Kentucky Derby and this weekend’s Pacific Classic are the focus of the new episode. XBTV analyst Jeff Siegel offers his thoughts about both races. Jockey Flavien Prat talks about defending his 2019 Pacific Classic victory and why he will not be defending his Kentucky Derby win. DraftKings Sportsbook’s Johnny Avello handicaps weekend races at Del Mar and Saratoga. To listen, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the fifth race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a maiden special weight at a mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up. So, when runners are debuting or lightly raced more than halfway through their 3-year-old year while still a maiden, the reasons can vary from connections who didn’t wanna run at 2, to possibly a late start due to being a late foal, or maybe an injury stalled things? At the bottom levels, the reasons vary even more, with the end result being a horse who’s just not very talented. But at this MSW level, there’s still plenty of confident connections, and in the case of our top choice, the placement is one of even greater hope, with our top selection SEVEN CHARMS (#9). He debuts today for Michael McCarthy, a guy who’s quite capable of winning with a first timer, a $350,000 purchase, patiently handled, not rushed or given a race earlier at the meet, but rather, saved a good month into things, where he’s sent long at first asking, and that’s important. If a horse needs a race, they’re usually not sent a mile, as a tired horse is more susceptible to injury, and if you’ve been patiently handling your horse, that’s just not the approach you’re gonna take. Victor Espinoza is up, a guy who’s not scrambling for mounts these days, meaning he gets live mounts. While many in this event are scrambling, trying to find the right spot after multiple failed races coming up short, this one offers hope right off the bat, with good intentions evident. COMRADERY (#4) strings races together for the first time, and here’s an example of a horse last time out, who was returned to a route off the layoff, and he wasn’t short. This is not the spot for a return where a fatigued runner is in jeopardy of an injury and subsequent new layoff. He’s now back on schedule stringing races together for the first time, and though there’s some runners in here such as LANE WAY, DIVINE ARMOUR offering some nice efforts to date, we’re looking for some better risk-reward propositions with horses who’ve got every right to run well today early in their career.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-4-12

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,2

“Positive Notes:

“12 Divine Armour - Freshened, tries hard, now given a new variable in the turf, we’ll include this Sadler colt.

“Negative Notes:

“6 Johan Zoffani - Euro invaders have had very little success in recent years on both coasts when making their U.S. debuts, plain and simple.

“TOP PICK: SEVEN CHARMS (#9 15-1 V Espinoza)

“SECOND CHOICE: COMRADERY (#4 15-1 Hernandez)”

Del Mar review

Sneaking Out broke on top, then settled in off the pace, took the lead on the far turn and cruised to a 3 3/4-length win in the Grade 3 $100,000 Rancho Bernardo Handicap for fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs.

Sneaking Out paid $5.60, $3.40 and $2.80 for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and jockey Umberto Rispoli. Amuse was second, followed by Gingham, Unique Factor, Mucho Amor, Mother of Dragons, Into Chocolate and Artistic Diva.

Del Mar preview

This is the best card of the year at Del Mar with five graded stakes races, including two Grade 1s. There are 11 races with a first post of 2 p.m. Last post is scheduled for 7:04 with sunset at 7:26 p.m. Five of the races are on the turf. Let’s get right to the stakes:

Grade 3 $100,000 Green Flash Handicap: This race is a five-furlong sprint on the turf with a field of eight. Sparky Ville is the favorite, at 5-2, for trainer Jeff Bonde and jockey Mike Smith. He is coming off an allowance win and took the San Vicente last year at Santa Anita. His last four races have been on the turf. He is four-of-14 lifetime.

Chaos Theory is the 7-2 second choice for John Sadler and Umberto Rispoli. He won last out in allowance at Churchill Downs and has moved to the John Sadler barn. (See Bob Ike’s pick below.) Post is around 3:05 p.m.

Grade 3 $100,000 Torrey Pines Stakes: Harvest Moon is the 2-1 favorite for Simon Callaghan and Flavien Prat in this mile race for 3-year-old fillies. She has won two of three starts and won her allowance race by 4 ¼ lengths. Secret Keeper hopes to up her winning streak to three races for Cliff Sise and Abel Cedillo as the 7-2 second choice. She won her maiden by 2 ¼ and allowance by 2 ½. Post time is around 3:36 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 Del Mar Handicap: This race has a top-shelf turf performer in United for Richard Mandella and Prat. He is 8-5 in this 1 3/8-mile race. He has won three graded stakes in a row and finished second to Bricks and Mortar in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. The 5-year-old gelding has won six-of-14 lifetime, including two of three at Del Mar.

The distant second favorite is Originaire, at 5-1, for Jeff Mullins and Cedillo. He finished fifth and third to United in his last to races. Rispoli has been the jockey but he is riding Red King in this 11-horse race. Originaire has won three of 18 with five seconds and four thirds. Post is around 5:06 p.m.

Grade 1 $250,000 Del Mar Oaks: The Oaks in the name tells you it’s for 3-year-old fillies but it doesn’t tell you 1 1/8 miles on the turf. Laura’s Light gets the favorite role at 3-1 for Peter Miller and Cedillo. She has won five of seven including three graded stakes. She is coming off wins in the Grade 2 San Clemente and Grade 3 Honeymoon.

The second favorite, 9-2, is making her first U.S. start, is Miss Extra for Mandella and Rispoli. She had won three of eight running in France. It’s a 10-horse field set to go around 6:06 p.m.

Grade 1 $500,000 Pacific Classic: This is a Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In race for the Classic and the premier race of the summer season at Del Mar. It’s 1 ¼ miles. All eyes will be on controversy-tinged Maximum Security, running for Bob Baffert and Cedillo. Max was moved to the Baffert barn after his previous trainer, Jason Servis, was hit with a federal indictment for horse doping. The case has not gone forward. In his first Baffert race, he won by a nose over Midcourt in the San Diego Handicap. He has won nine of 11 and generally considered the best older horse in the country.

Higher Power is said to have the best chance to upset Max as the 3-1 second choice for Sadler and Prat. He was third in the San Diego Handicap but won this race last year. He was third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He has won five of 18 with two seconds and seven third-place finishes. This six-horse field goes in the penultimate race of the day at around 6:36 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 6, 7, 6, 12, 12 (2 also eligible), 11, 8, 10, 6, 12.

Bob Ike’s Dmr pick of the day

THIRD RACE No.7 Chaos Theory (7-2)

Looks like a potentially sharp claim by the Hronis/Sadler team, who took this gelding for $62,500 on June 14 at Churchill Downs. The consistent turf sprinter comes back in this $100,000 Grade 3 event off a string of bullet works (including :47.2 over the Del Mar grass course) and lands top rider Umberto Rispoli. With plenty of pace lined up, look for him to come rolling late.

Friday’s result: Hurley (5-2) flopped out of the gate, trailed when 3-4 wide throughout, made a strong wide move on far turn, got on even terms in deep stretch, just missed. How she was not moved up to first on the stewards’ inquiry (on an incident that did not involve her) is beyond my comprehension.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s Dmr pick of the day

RACE TWO: Noor Khan (8-1)

Noor Khan at 8-1 might be the best price you’ll get on a Flavien Prat horse, if it holds up. In fact, Prat and trainer Phil D’Amato are a great jockey-trainer combo with four wins in eight starts. The 4-year-old filly is racing protected and won with Prat two races back at the same distance. You can throw out the last race as it was a turf experiment.

Friday’s results: King Parker raced at the back on the rail tried to make a move in the stretch but came up short for a show placing.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“The feature on Saturday’s nine-race program is the eighth, a five-furlong allowance turf sprint. Give Me the Lute earned an eye-popping 96 Beyer at this condition on June 7. He won by seven lengths, completing five furlongs in 55.34 seconds, .09 seconds off the track record. As a California-bred, he is eligible to win at this condition again, which is why trainer Andy Mathis opted to run him at this level once more. Another main contender in the race, Heck Yeah, makes his first start for trainer Steve Sherman and comes off a 6 ½-month layoff. Previously in Southern California with Bob Baffert, the California-bred 5-year-old by Acclamation sports a four-for-eight lifetime record with career earnings of $310,333. He is a three-time California-bred stakes winner and has won on both dirt and turf.

“On Sunday, 10 races end the racing week. In the seventh, a second-level allowance field of filly and mare sprinters kicks off the late Pick 5 and is the marquee event on the card. Last year’s Bear Fan Stakes winner Princess Vivien is the one to beat. A California-bred 4-year-old, the Sergio Ledezma trainee has won a first-level allowance and hit the board in the California Governor’s Handicap in July at Pleasanton. Other major contenders are Left Alone, a European-bred who has taken an affinity for the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta main track, and the always well regarded 3-year-old filly Misirlou.

“In jockey news, Evin Roman joined the Golden Gate Fields riding colony this week. Roman won the Eclipse Award for Top Apprentice Jockey of 2017 and, from very early on in his career, was noted as a jockey with plenty of talent. After schooling at the prestigious Escuela Vocacional Hipica, a world-renowned jockey school in Puerto Rico, Roman moved to Southern California. As an apprentice in 2017, Roman had 161 winners while earning $5 million in purse money. He won the 2017 fall meet riding title at Santa Anita and successfully defended the title at the 2018 winter/spring meet, defeating Flavien Prat by one win. The 22-year-old native of Bayamon, Puerto Rico will be represented by agent Leo Rodriguez.

“Finally, two top Golden Gate Fields runners’ compete in graded stakes at Del Mar. You’ll want to give them a look. Mikes Tiznow races for Mathis in the $100,000 Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap for turf sprinters on Saturday. The son of Slew’s Tiznow has won the Albany Stakes at Golden Gate twice in a row. He has won four of five while sprinting five furlongs on grass. His other race was a third. Regular jockey Ricky Gonzalez rides back in the Green Flash. In Sunday’s $150,000 Grade 2 Del Mar Mile, the Victor Trujillo-trained Kiwi’s Dream is back there after a second-place finish while setting wicked fast fractions in the Wickerr Stakes. Kiwi’s Dream was the runner-up in the San Francisco Mile and All American Stakes earlier in the year. Juan Hernandez retains the mount.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:29 Monmouth (5): Grade 3 $200,000 Philip H. Iselin Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Warrior’s Charge (8-5)

11:36 Woodbine (4): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Flame Zapper (3-1)

1:49 Woodbine (8): $100,000 Eternal Search Stakes, Ont-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Bramble Team (5-2)

2:46 Saratoga (9): Grade 1 $400,000 Fourstardave Handicap, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Raging Bull (5-2)

3:05 Del Mar (3): Grade 3 $100,000 Green Flash Handicap, 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Sparky Ville (5-2)

3:36 Del Mar (4): Grade 3 $100,000 Torrey Pines Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Harvest Moon (2-1)

3:50 Albuquerque (9): $100,000 Carlos Salazar Stakes, NM-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Hennessy Express (3-1)

5:06 Del Mar (7): Grade 2 $200,000 Del Mar Handicap, 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: United (8-5)

6:06 Del Mar (9): Grade 1 $250,000 Del Mar Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Laura’s Light (3-1)

6:36 Del Mar (10): Grade 1 $500,000 Pacific Classic, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Maximum Security (1-1)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE TWO: No. 5 Slightly (7-2)

She is a hard-working mare who has finished in the top three in 55% of her 54 career starts with nine of those being victories. In her last start 20 nights ago, she broke a tad slow and took up in close quarters while trailing the entire field in the backstretch. Settling behind a five-horse speed duel, she put forth a big run through the turn, while racing wide down the lane to finish third. With many speed runners signed up for this event, Slightly should be able to sit back with the aim of repeating her late run. We’ll push this runner to sail past her rivals at a medium mutual on Saturday night.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.