Best Super Bowl bet may be to take the Over
Who do you like?
That’s what everyone wants to know as we come up on Super Bowl Sunday with the Kansas City Chiefs wavering between 1- and 1.5-point favorites over the San Francisco 49ers.
For years we’ve talked about the strategy of being an underdog-or-pass bettor. So, you would assume we’re taking the underdog 49ers. However, I just can’t pull the trigger on the 49ers as I rate the Chiefs as the better overall team and more likely to pull out the win with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying offense, plus a defense that has improved all season.
Patrick Mahomes was a high school star in Whitehouse, Texas, a town nestled in Cowboys and Texans country that has transformed into Chiefs supporters.
The same thing happened last year when it was assumed we would be on the Rams against the Patriots, but we were unwilling to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. It was a smart decision to pass on the Rams as the Patriots won 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Our biggest bet was Over 56, so we missed that by only 40 points.
So, take it with a grain of salty Super Bowl snacks when we say take the Over again, although it was better when it opened around 51 to 51.5 before getting bet as high as 55.5 and settling in at 54.5. While the 49ers certainly have a very good defense, the modern game still favors the offense and the Chiefs just have too many weapons to be contained the whole game. In addition, while the Chiefs’ defense has improved, the 49ers should still have offensive success with Raheem Mostert running wild and setting up QB Jimmy Garoppolo off play-action.
Before joining the 49ers, Raheem Mostert was cut by the Eagles, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Jets and Bears — with some releasing him more than once.
Even though the dog-or-pass philosophy emphasizes the “pass” part, this is the Super Bowl, after all, so we’re making our Best Bet a 6-point teaser with the Chiefs +4.5 and Over 48.5.
It makes sense in this matchup as you can expect it to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. While the Chiefs should win, this protects us in case the 49ers pull out a three- or four-point win in a close game or if the Chiefs need to get in the back door to cover the teaser. Meanwhile, the Over 48.5 gives us back those earlier lower numbers we missed.
As we said last week, our top prop bet recommendations as based on expecting this to be a close game:
“Yes” on “Will there be a tie after 0-0?’ (-110).
“Under” on “Largest Lead Over/Under 14.5 points?” (-110).
“Yes” on “Will there be Overtime?” (8-1).
Joe Buck, who will broadcast Super Bowl LIV with Troy Aikman, watches his dad, Jack, broadcast Super Bowl IV and is amazed at what has changed in 50 years.
“Tie” on “First-Half Results/Game Winner” (12-1 on Tie/Chiefs and 12-1 on Tie/49ers).
Good luck, no matter how you play the Super Bowl.
Conference title games: 1-1 (0-1 against the spread, 1-0 on Over/Unders).
Playoffs: 6-4 (3-3 ATS, 3-1 on Over/Unders).
Season: 46-42-3 ATS, 3-1 on Over/Unders.
Dave Tuley writes for VSiN.com, the sports betting network.
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