Who do you like?
For years we’ve talked about the strategy of being an underdog-or-pass bettor. So, you would assume we’re taking the underdog 49ers. However, I just can’t pull the trigger on the 49ers as I rate the Chiefs as the better overall team and more likely to pull out the win with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying offense, plus a defense that has improved all season.
The same thing happened last year when it was assumed we would be on the Rams against the Patriots, but we were unwilling to bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. It was a smart decision to pass on the Rams as the Patriots won 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever. Our biggest bet was Over 56, so we missed that by only 40 points.
So, take it with a grain of salty Super Bowl snacks when we say take the Over again, although it was better when it opened around 51 to 51.5 before getting bet as high as 55.5 and settling in at 54.5. While the 49ers certainly have a very good defense, the modern game still favors the offense and the Chiefs just have too many weapons to be contained the whole game. In addition, while the Chiefs’ defense has improved, the 49ers should still have offensive success with Raheem Mostert running wild and setting up QB Jimmy Garoppolo off play-action.
Even though the dog-or-pass philosophy emphasizes the “pass” part, this is the Super Bowl, after all, so we’re making our Best Bet a 6-point teaser with the Chiefs +4.5 and Over 48.5.
It makes sense in this matchup as you can expect it to be a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. While the Chiefs should win, this protects us in case the 49ers pull out a three- or four-point win in a close game or if the Chiefs need to get in the back door to cover the teaser. Meanwhile, the Over 48.5 gives us back those earlier lower numbers we missed.
“Yes” on “Will there be a tie after 0-0?’ (-110).
“Under” on “Largest Lead Over/Under 14.5 points?” (-110).
“Yes” on “Will there be Overtime?” (8-1).
“Tie” on “First-Half Results/Game Winner” (12-1 on Tie/Chiefs and 12-1 on Tie/49ers).
Good luck, no matter how you play the Super Bowl.
Conference title games: 1-1 (0-1 against the spread, 1-0 on Over/Unders).
Playoffs: 6-4 (3-3 ATS, 3-1 on Over/Unders).
Season: 46-42-3 ATS, 3-1 on Over/Unders.
Dave Tuley writes for VSiN.com, the sports betting network.