Horse racing newsletter: Ron Flatter tells you about betting the futures

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as Santa Anita has two graded stakes on Saturday.

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some common sense advice about betting Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. Ron, what insights do you have?

“The Tiz the Law bandwagon has collected passengers in New York, Kentucky and Florida. This weekend he figures to add a lot more nationwide.

“With his win last Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull Stakes, Tiz The Law cemented his name as winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Now he figures to attract most of the money among the 23 individual choices in Saturday’s second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

“At 8-1 on the morning line, trainer Barclay Tagg’s 3-year-old colt by Constitution might actually be considered an overlay if the number holds up. That is a big ‘if.’ Tiz The Law’s latest win not only ran his record to three-for-three on fast tracks but also shortened his odds to 6-1 in the Derby futures at William Hill Nevada.

“Unlike the bookmaker’s odds, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) conducted four times a year by Churchill Downs is a pari-mutuel pool. Just like a horse race, there is no guarantee that the odds shown when a bet is made will be the odds that the bettor ends up with when the pool closes Sunday at 3 p.m. PST.

“In other words, don’t count on getting 8-1 on Tiz the Law except in the fantasy world that is the morning line.

“Because they race this weekend, the odds are more fluid for Independence Hall (10-1 KDFW morning line, 10-1 William Hill) and Storm the Court (30-1, 12-1). Undefeated in three races, Independence Hall may close an odds-on favorite in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. In his first race as a 3-year-old, 2019 juvenile champion Storm the Court has a seven-furlong tune-up Sunday in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita.

“This mise-en-scène also begs the question that must be posed to anyone wagering on the KDFW. Why bet on Independence Hall or Storm The Court before they race this weekend? The same applies to Premier Star (50-1, 75-1), also in the Sam F. Davis, and Nadal (12-1, 10-1), the morning-line favorite in the San Vicente.

“Unlike a bet into William Hill futures in which the odds you see are the odds you get, the value of a KDFW bet is not final until the pool closes. So why not wait to get the most important impression that either horse will make this weekend? Making a pari-mutuel wager before that would be like betting on the Lakers before knowing if LeBron James and Anthony Davis were going to play.

“Yet premature bets come in every time Churchill Downs opens a new KDFW pool. During the first 2½ hours of wagering Thanksgiving weekend, $1,684 were bet on Tiz the Law and another $255 on South Bend. The following day Tiz the Law finished third and South Bend sixth in the slop of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

“Although the early bettors wound up with better odds – Tiz the Law 11-1 and South Bend 72-1 – they probably harbored second thoughts. In any case, waiting until after the race would have been the more prudent move before betting.

“At least these pari-mutuel futures will be offered as a choice this weekend in Nevada, where the first pool of the KDFW was blacked out by an impasse between Churchill Downs Inc. and the state’s Pari-Mutuel Association. They just settled a three-month dispute over how the take-out percentage would be split between CDI and racebooks.

“Whatever the case – fixed odds or pari-mutuels – may the hunt for what may be elusive value resume.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. The biggest handicapping contest in the country is the focus of the current episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Competitors Chris Fallica, David Gutfreund and Judy Wagner take part in a roundtable to talk about betting strategy for the National Horseplayers Championship at Las Vegas. Trainer Peter Eurton discusses 2019 juvenile champion Storm the Court’s return to the track Sunday in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Just click here.

More on Storm the Court

I also wrote about Storm the Court and trainer Peter Eurton. And if you listen to the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, you’re going to discover some of the quotes are about the same. The reason? Ron and I were talking to Peter at the same time. But Ron’s got some stuff I didn’t use and I have some stuff he didn’t use. You can find my story, just click here.

Santa Anita review

Friday’s unscheduled stakes race was the $75,000 Baffle Stakes for 3-year-olds going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. It was originally set for Sunday but it didn’t fill, so it was moved to Friday. The field was down to six but Billy Batts sat near the back going into the far turn when he got rolling on the rail, went outside the leader, and stablemate, Bulletproof One, and won by 1 ½ lengths.

Billy Batts paid $6.80, $4.20 and $2.80. Rager was second and Rookie Mistake was third. It was the first ever stakes win at Santa Anita for jockey Umberto Rispoli.

Here’s what the winning connections had to say.

Peter Miller (winning trainer): “I thought my other [horse, Bulletproof One] had a better chance at five and a half, but they pressed her pretty hard the whole way and it took its toll. Billy is a good horse and we needed to get a prep into him to get him ready [for a one-mile dirt race in Saudi Arabia on Feb. 29] and it worked out. He’s trained very well on the dirt. I like the distance a flat mile and I think he should run well.”

Umberto Rispoli (winning jockey): “It was a great opportunity to ride a horse like him. He comes from the Breeders’ Cup (Juvenile Turf on Nov. 1) so people were expecting a lot and Peter was confident in the run. He broke quite sharp and for the first couple of furlongs he was asking me. When we swung out, he was full of run.

“I’m very happy for that and I’m very happy that my first stakes win didn’t take so long. It’s great to win my first stakes here. I love this place. I love the people, I love the weather, I love everything. Every time my boy (Hayden, 2 1/2) comes out, I win. I love when my son sees me winning races. He’s always waiting for that. He’s probably going to watch this 300 times tonight.”

Santa Anita preview

It’s a nine-race card on Saturday with a 12:30 p.m. first post. There are four turf races and two graded stakes. The field size average is 7.2. So, let’s get right to the previews.

Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes: This race is for 3-year-old fillies going a mile, but it only attracted five entrants. The heavy favorite, at 2-5, is Venetian Harbor for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat. The low morning line is because of a 10 3/4-length win in her second start. She was second in her first start.

Morning-line maker Jon White has two second choices at 5-1. There is Cholula Lips for Mike Harrington and Abel Cedillo. She is two-of-eight lifetime and won two back in the Soviet Problem for Cal-breds at Los Alamitos. The other co-favorite is Stellar Sound for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. (And I bet you thought Smith didn’t ride for Baffert anymore.) She won her debut and followed with a fifth in the Del Mar Debutante and a third in the Desi Arnaz. Post is around 2:30 p.m.

Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes: There is a full field of 10 in this mile race on the turf for older horses. The favorite is True Valor for owner/trainer Simon Callaghan and jockey Andrea Atzeni. He has won five-of-21 lifetime. He won this race last year. He’s been running in heavy company and was 10^th in the Breeders’ Cup mile, won by Eclipse winner Uni.

Frontier Market is the 4-1 second favorite making his first start for John Sadler after leaving the Chad Brown barn. Flavien Prat will ride. Despite being a 7-year-old gelding he has only made 12 starts, winning three and finishing second seven times. It took him seven tries to break his maiden and has been exclusively riding on the East Coast. Post is around 3:30 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 8, 6, 7, 5, 7, 10, 5, 9.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 9 Take the One O One (20-1)

Take the One O One looks very interesting at a price of 20-1 or more in this very wide open Thunder Road Grade 3 race. First start since fading badly last out in September after battling from the lead to deep stretch. Trainer Brian Kroiner is 29% at the meet so far from his small stable going 7-2-5 from 24 horses. He is 22% off the bench and has put in some very sharp workouts for the comeback Saturday. The horse has won its “back off a break” races the last two times so he fires fresh. This is the best betting race on the card. I suggest going deep in your late Pick 4 tickets here and swing for a price. This race has been run 35 times with horses over 5-1 winning 57%, 20% of those over 10-1 in price. This is a value player ideal race to shop.

Friday’s result: Uno Dancer went off at 12-1 and ran half a race.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

Here’s our weekly look at the best racing going on at Golden Gate Fields. We’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. Matt wasn’t with us last week because of a gas problem. No, not Matt, but Golden Gate. So, take it away, Matt.

“Thanks for bearing with us as we dealt with last week’s unforeseen circumstances. Everything is back in order and we’ve got some good-looking cards with a pair of 10-spots on Saturday and Sunday. First post each day is 12:45 p.m.

“The Saturday overnight drew plenty of quality races. One that caught my eye was the fourth, a one-mile allowance for 3-year-old fillies. Among the main contenders are impressive maiden winner Tiz Fake News, stakes placed Shanghai Keely and the well-bred Augure. The sixth race, an allowance sprint for older fillies and mares, features a handful of stakes performers. Among them: Grade 2 placed Tomlin, 2017 Camilla Urso Stakes winner Mother of Dragons, Emerald Downs Stakes winner Ima Happy Cat and stakes placed Vronilla Parfait. The seventh is a maiden special weight for 3-year-old fillies and begins a solid late Pick 4 sequence.

“Sunday also has a good card with 10 races. The late Pick 4 (races 7-10) will be guaranteed at $100,000 this Sunday with 43 horses running, which averages slightly more than 10 horses a race. My pick in the late Pick 4 is No. 8 Sloane Garden in the ninth. Her maiden win last month was terrific. She faces winners for the first time-the bump up in class is significant but she looks like a filly with potential and promise. I was extremely impressed with her last run. Her trainer, Manny Badilla, has thought highly of her ever since she was given to him by owners Ron Charles and Sam Gordon, who purchased Sloane Garden from Europe.

Other races to take a look at: Race 5, a nine horse California-bred maiden race, kicks off the Golden Pick

“Nominations were released this week for the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, a 1 1/8 mile race for 3-year-olds next Saturday. Among the 25 nominees are Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner up Anneau D’Or, Grade 3 Sham Stakes second place runner Azul Coast, and California Cup Derby top two finishers Fast Enough and Sacred Rider. The Stiff and Wine and Whisky, the first and second place finishers in a local prep last month, are nominated and projected to enter. The El Camino Real Derby offers 10 Kentucky Derby points to the winner and an all-expense paid free berth into the May 16 Preakness Stakes.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:59 Tampa Bay (8): Grade 3 $175,000 Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Got Stormy (4-5)

1:25 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Quixotic (2-1)

1:29 Tampa Bay (9): $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile and 70 yards. Favorite: Comical (3-1)

1:59 Tampa Bay (10): Grade 3 $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Caribou Club (5-2)

2:04 Gulfstream (11): Grade 3 $150,000 Suwannee River Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Starship Jubilee (7-5)

2:28 Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Venetian Harbor (2-5)

2:29 Tampa Bay (11): Grade 3 $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Independence Hall (6-5)

2:38 Oaklawn (8): $125,000 King Cotton Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Whitmore (5-2)

2:50 Sunland (9): $100,000 La Coneja Stakes, NM-breds fillies and mares 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Susans Violette (5-2)

3:31 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: True Valour (7-2)

4:08 Delta Downs (3): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Prince, La-bred 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: No Parole (7-5)

5:08 Delta Downs (5): $125,000 Louisiana Premier Night Distaff, La-breds fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Mariah’s Galaxy (9-5)

6:09 Delta Downs (7): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Starlet, La-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Vacherie Girl (5-2)

6:39 Delta Downs (8): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Sprint, La-breds 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Favorite: Laughingsaintssong (9-5)

7:09 Delta Downs (9): $150,000 Louisiana Premier Night Championship, La-breds 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Shang (8-5)

7:39 Delta Downs (10): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Matron, La-breds fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Favorite: Mint to Stardom (8-5)

Chris Wade’s LA Pick of the Day

RACE FOUR: No. 8 Back Beauty (6-1)

She is an eight-time winner who is as consistent as they come at this level of competition and the hard knocker will make her first start for a quality shed row that has done well with new trainees. She has nice mixture of speed and closing ability and her figures on my comparison speed charts put her right there with the other top contenders in this race. She has looked sharp in morning preps (a four-furlong bullet 45.8 drill on Jan. 11 from 25 works) before returning with a solid five-furlong work. Trainer has won with three of his five thoroughbred starters here this year.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.