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NFL Week 12 picks, odds and predictions: Buccaneers upset Chiefs

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady celebrates with wide receiver Chris Godwin after a touchdown against the Rams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady celebrates with wide receiver Chris Godwin after a touchdown against the Rams on Monday.
(Jason Behnken / Associated Press)
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The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 109-51-1 (.681). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread would have been 5-9 (.357); season 85-71-5 (.545). Times Pacific.

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Las Vegas Raiders (6-4) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr hands the ball off to running back Josh Jacobs.
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr hands the ball off to running back Josh Jacobs during last week’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
(David Becker / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

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Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 551/2.

The Raiders did everything they could to sweep the Chiefs, and they almost did. With the way Derek Carr is playing, they should tear up the Falcons. Atlanta was just shut down by New Orleans.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Falcons 17

3

Los Angeles Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3)

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert scrambles with the ball during last week's win over the New York Jets.
(John Cordes / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS. DirecTV: 706.

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Line: Bills by 51/2. O/U: 531/2.

The Bills are legitimate contenders and rested after a week off. The Chargers have the likely offensive rookie of the year in Justin Herbert, but still struggle to play as a team.

Prediction: Bills 31, Chargers 23

4

Tennessee Titans (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-3)

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers throws against the Green Bay Packers last week.
(Zach Bolinger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 51.

This Colts defense is for real, and Philip Rivers is settling in with the Indianapolis offense. The Colts won this game by 17 points earlier this month. This time it will be closer, but still go with Indy.

Prediction: Colts 31, Titans 27

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Cleveland Browns (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward, center, is congratulated by teammates.
Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward, center, is congratulated by teammates after making an interception against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday.
(Kirk Irwin / Associated Press)

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Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Browns by 61/2. O/U: 49.

Browns aren’t scoring a ton of points, but have their formula running the ball, and they will force-feed the Jaguars. Cleveland would love to have a healthy Myles Garrett but will get by without him.

Prediction: Browns 27, Jaguars 13

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Miami Dolphins (6-4) at New York Jets (0-10)

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa runs against the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
(Jack Dempsey / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Dolphins by 7. O/U: 441/2.

Benched in the fourth quarter Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa has been ultra-conservative. Will the coaches cut him loose a bit? Regardless, Miami still has its rollicking defense, and, hey, we’re talking Jets.

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Prediction: Dolphins 28, Jets 17

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New York Giants (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7-1)

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones passes against the Philadelphia Eagles on Nov. 15.
(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Giants by 6. O/U: 421/2.

The Giants have a bad record, but their coach has them playing hard, and they’re typically within one score down the stretch. The Bengals are reeling after losing rookie quarterback Joe Burrow.

Prediction: Giants 24, Bengals 13

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Carolina Panthers (4-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-6)

Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook runs with the ball against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
(David Berding / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

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Line: Vikings by 31/2. O/U: 50.

The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with a good win over Detroit, but they’re still battered. Still, their defense is awful, and Dalvin Cook should have a big day. Will Adam Thielen play?

Prediction: Vikings 28, Panthers 23

9

Arizona Cardinals (6-4) at New England Patriots (4-6)

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray throws against the Seattle Seahawks on Nov. 19.
(Elaine Thompson / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Cardinals by 21/2. O/U: 491/2.

Patriots will take something from that Arizona-Seattle tape and likely will blitz Kyler Murray like crazy. Arizona doesn’t tend to play well in the Eastern time zone, either, but its defense does enough.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Patriots 21

10

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Denver Broncos (4-6)

New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill looks to pass against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.
(Tyler Kaufman / Associated Press)

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Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Saints by 6. O/U: 431/2.

Beating Miami gave the Broncos a healthy confidence boost, but the Saints will bring them back to earth. Taysom Hill shows he’s more than a one-hit wonder, and the Saints keep it rolling on the road.

Prediction: Saints 24, Broncos 17

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San Francisco 49ers (4-6) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3)

Rams quarterback Jared Goff throws a pass to tight end Gerald Everett during a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Rams quarterback Jared Goff throws a pass to tight end Gerald Everett during a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday.
(Mark LoMoglio / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Rams by 7. O/U: 451/2.

Even in their banged-up state, the 49ers beat the Rams earlier this season. That won’t happen twice, as the Rams find a way, although it probably won’t be pretty. Jared Goff does enough to win.

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Prediction: Rams 27, 49ers 23

12

Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes passes against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday.
(Isaac Brekken / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Chiefs by 31/2. O/U: 56.

Both offenses are loaded with weapons. Whereas the Buccaneers have the GOAT in Tom Brady, the Chiefs have the future GOAT in Patrick Mahomes. Tampa Bay has the defensive edge, though.

Prediction: Buccaneers 33, Chiefs 31

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Chicago Bears (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers signals to the sideline against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
(Zach Bolinger / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: NBC.

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Line: Packers by 81/2. O/U: 45.

The Bears are horrible on offense and can’t keep pace with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are feeling the heat after an overtime loss to Indianapolis. They’re going to have to step up, and will.

Prediction: Packers 28, Bears 17

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Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-6-1)

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson throws against the Arizona Cardinals on Nov. 19.
(Elaine Thompson / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Seahawks by 5. O/U: 50.

As bad as Seattle’s defense is, if they are going to blitz more, as they did against Arizona, they’re going to force turnovers. Philadelphia is a shadow of its normal self. Seattle should get the job done.

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Eagles 21

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Baltimore Ravens (6-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0)

Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards carries the ball against the New England Patriots on Nov. 15.
(Charles Krupa / Associated Press)

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Tuesday, 5 p.m.

TV: NBC.

Line: Steelers by 51/2. O/U: 441/2.

This is a desperate, must-win game for the Ravens, but so was Sunday, and they lost to Tennessee. Even with Gus Edwards running the ball well, Pittsburgh wins this by a wider-than-usual margin.

Prediction: Steelers 28, Ravens 20

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