NFL Week 11 picks: Can UCLA’s DTR save Browns? Will Chargers, Rams rebound?

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 86-64 (.573). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 67-81-2 (.453). Off: Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Saints. All times Pacific.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson should be the difference-maker for the Ravens against the Bengals.

(Gene J. Puskar / Associated Press)

Tonight, 5:20

TV: Amazon Prime Video

Line: Ravens by 3 1/2. O/U: 46.

Both teams are coming off close losses. The Bengals are more desperate, and that can be a good thing for them. But Lamar Jackson is the difference and Baltimore holds on at home.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Bengals 21

Quarterback Justin Herbert aims to get the Chargers back on their feet when they visit Green Bay to play the Packers.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Fox, Channel 11 in L.A.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Sunday forecast calls for mid-30s and sun in Green Bay. That shouldn’t be an issue for a Chargers offense coming off a strong performance against Detroit. Packers can run, but won’t be enough.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Packers 20

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a week off to prepare to play the Raiders.

(Wilfredo Lee / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: CBS, Channel 2 in L.A.

Line: Dolphins by 11 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Raiders have a two-game winning streak after beating the deeply flawed Giants and Jets. Here come the rested Dolphins, whose offense should give that Las Vegas defense fits.

Prediction: Dolphins 34, Raiders 17

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been on a hot streak.

(Roger Steinman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Cowboys by 10 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

In two of the last three games, the Cowboys have scored 43 and 49. Dak Prescott has been on fire, and there’s no reason to think that will grind to a halt at Carolina. Panthers will plug along.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Panthers 10

The Browns said Wednesday that Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the former UCLA star, will start at quarterback against the Steelers.

(Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 34 1/2.

Deshaun Watson is done for the season, so this game rests on the broad shoulders of Cleveland’s defense, which typically plays well. Pittsburgh keeps finding ways to win and can pull off the sweep.

Prediction: Steelers 14, Browns 13

Jared Goff, the former top pick of the Rams, has led the Lions’ rise since he was traded to Detroit.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Lions by 9 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Jared Goff is in the thick of the MVP race, and the Lions are dangerous and creative with all those weapons. No matter who is playing quarterback for the Bears, Detroit should handle its business at home.

Prediction: Lions 30, Bears 16

Can quarterback Kyler Murray make a difference for the Cardinals against the hot Texans?

(Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Texans by 4 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Kyler Murray is back and that makes games a bit more interesting for the Cardinals, although it’s easy to make too big a deal about that. C.J. Stroud is for real and he’s proving it by the week.

Prediction: Texans 28, Cardinals 20

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) aim to rebound after an embarrassing lost to the 49ers last week.

(Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Jaguars by 6 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Jaguars, riding a five-game winning streak, came out rested after an off week and got smacked in the mouth by San Francisco. This is a bounce-back game against a team that has lost four of five.

Prediction: Jaguars 31, Titans 21

Many might not have noticed, but Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has had a very productive season so far.

(Stephanie Scarbrough / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Commanders by 9 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

Not many people talking about it, but Washington’s Sam Howell leads the league in yards passing and is just two off the lead in TD passes. Good offense and a bad defense against a woeful opponent.

Prediction: Commanders 24, Giants 13

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has sliced up the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense before.

(Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: 49ers by 10 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

In his first career start last season, Brock Purdy led San Francisco to a 35-7 thumping of Tampa Bay. Considering how the 49ers played last week, no reason to suggest Sunday will be much different.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 17

If the thumb of Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) is healed enough, his passing could be the difference against the Seahawks.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: CBS, Channel 2 in L.A.

Line: Seahawks by 1. O/U: 46.

The Rams tend to play well against Seattle, as they showed in their opener. If Matthew Stafford is any semblance of himself, and with the other players the Rams are getting back, lean toward L.A.

Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 21

After a last-second loss to the Broncos on Monday night, quarterback Josh Allen is hoping to get the Bills back on track against the AFC East rival Jets.

(Adrian Kraus / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bills by 6 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Bills have lost three of four, and their season is circling the drain. They’re heading into a nightmarish stretch of their schedule, too, but this is one they can win because of a sputtering Jets offense.

Prediction: Bills 21, Jets 17

Can new Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs make it three wins in a row?

(Matt Krohn / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

TV: Channel 4

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Denver has whipped a U-turn and its defense is starting to perform. Meanwhile, quarterback Josh Dobbs might the best story of the year in the NFL. Dobbs helps the Vikings keep it rolling.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Broncos 21

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (left) and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts will face off in a rematch of the last Super Bowl, won by Kansas City.

(Reed Hoffman, Matt Rourke / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: Chiefs by 2 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Eagles have the edge in this Super Bowl rematch, because they should be able to control the clock with the run, and Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have a ton of weapons around him.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 23