Adam Sandler may get last laugh in film matchup with Justin Bieber
One of the reigning kings of comedy is hoping that he won’t be upstaged by a pint-size teen idol this weekend at the box office.
Adam Sandler’s romantic comedy “Just Go With It” will face off against “Justin Bieber: Never Say Never,” a 3-D documentary and concert movie that trails pop star Justin Bieber on his tour last summer.
Not that it looks to be an even match-up. “Just Go With It,” which also stars rom-com staple Jennifer Aniston and supermodel-turned-actress Brooklyn Decker, will probably beat out Bieber. According to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys, “Just Go With It” should open to about $30 million.
The Bieber picture, meanwhile, is a wild card. It could gross anywhere from $10 million to $30 million, but the tally is difficult to predict because Bieber’s small-but-fervent fan base consists of many “Beliebers” who are too young to participate in box-office polling.
The films will be competing against two other new movies with little shot at No. 1: The 3-D animated “Gnomeo & Juliet,” which is expected to open to between $15 million and $20 million, and Focus Features’ ancient Roman action film “The Eagle,” which will probably open with less than $10 million.
A premiere in the $30-million range would be a good start for “Just Go With It,” which cost Sony Pictures about $80 million to produce. But it wouldn’t be outstanding for Sandler, whose recent comedies have opened closer to $40 million. Last summer’s hit “Grown Ups” debuted to $40.5 million, and the 2004 romantic comedy “50 First Dates,” which also opened just before Valentine’s Day, started with $39.9 million.
“Never Say Never” cost only about $13 million to produce, making the financial stakes much lower for Paramount Pictures. Two similar movies that opened in February in recent years saw wildly different performances.
In 2009, “Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience,” opened to only $12.5 million and ended up with $19.2 million at the domestic box office. Paramount is banking on the Bieber flick following in the path of Miley Cyrus’ “Hannah Montana & Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour,” which premiered in February 2008 to $31.1 million and went on to take in $65.3 million.
Regardless of how it starts, “Never Say Never” will probably have a short box office life. Most films featuring pop stars and musical performances have a big opening day with hardcore fans packing theaters and then fade quickly as few casual moviegoers show interest.
“Gnomeo & Juliet,” a story of star-crossed romance among garden gnomes featuring songs by Elton John, has been in development at Walt Disney Studios for more than a decade.
“The Eagle” was produced for $23 million, making it a bigger-budget release for Universal Pictures’ specialty label Focus Features. Despite the presence of Channing Tatum, who has won favor with young women in movies like “Dear John,” the action-heavy epic is targeted squarely at men, particularly older ones. Focus is hoping the movie opens close to, if not more than, $10 million to have a chance at box office life.
