Activists Mobilize Over Shaping Supreme Court

Following the news of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist’s hospitalization for thyroid cancer, conservative and liberal activists scrambled Tuesday to rally support for President Bush or his Democratic rival, Sen. John F. Kerry, by reminding partisans that the presidential election could shape the future of the Supreme Court.

The National Rifle Assn. stepped up radio advertising in a number of battleground states, warning that the high court “could be the last line of defense for your right to keep and bear arms.”

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America highlighted the court in get-out-the-vote mailings to 350,000 of its supporters, and the group’s president headed to three key states to talk to voters about the “added urgency” of possible court vacancies, a spokesman said. The group sought to remind undecided female voters that Kerry has pledged to protect the right to abortion, whereas Bush opposes abortion rights.

“Both Bush and Kerry are focusing heavily now on shoring up -- and turning out -- the base,” said Don Kettl, a University of Pennsylvania political science professor. “And for the core voters of both parties, Rehnquist’s illness is an electrifying reminder of the stakes.”

The presidential candidates have had little to say about the Supreme Court during a campaign dominated by Iraq, terrorism and the economy. They remained publicly silent Tuesday on the disclosure that Rehnquist, 80, had been diagnosed with thyroid cancer and had undergone a tracheotomy. Court officials said he was expected to return to the bench next week, but he remained hospitalized amid speculation by medical experts about his condition.

It seemed clear that conservatives had more to lose from a Rehnquist retirement because the chief justice is one of theirs, but which side might benefit at the polls was a matter of dispute.

“This should energize conservatives more than liberals,” said John Feehery, a spokesman for House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.). A Bush defeat combined with a Rehnquist retirement could result in conservatives losing a Supreme Court seat for a decade or more.

But Kettl said Rehnquist’s health problems were likely to stir up liberal and Democratic voters “who probably worry most about how a Bush victory could, in short order, transform the court.”

“What will most drive female voters?” he asked. “The drive for homeland security, as Bush has been betting -- or abortion and other issues of social policy, as a possible Rehnquist departure might affect?”

“In a race so razor-close, anything that tips the scales ever so slightly -- or anything that charges up the base to boost turnout -- could shape the outcome,” Kettl said.

Liberal groups and women’s rights advocates have made much of the importance of the Supreme Court, arguing that adding more conservative Republicans to the bench could lead to making abortion illegal again.

The Republican Party platform goes beyond urging the repeal of Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 ruling that struck down state laws that made abortion a crime. Three current justices -- Rehnquist, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas -- favor overturning that ruling.

If it were overturned, states would again be free to make abortion illegal. Many of them, including California, would probably preserve the right to abortion.

However, the GOP platform says all abortions should be outlawed.

If he wins, Kerry has promised, he will appoint justices who support the right to abortion set in Roe vs. Wade. If he were to choose Rehnquist’s successor, Scalia and Thomas would be the bench’s only opponents of abortion rights.

Some groups said they found it a delicate matter to talk about the importance of the Supreme Court as an election issue without being perceived as insensitive to Rehnquist’s health.

Nonetheless, groups on the right and left quickly did.

The Family Research Council issued a statement headlined “Rehnquist Health Battle Is Jolting Reminder to Voters,” declaring that “the domestic security of our culture demands a president and Senate that will fight aggressively for judges who strictly interpret the law.”

It warned that Kerry’s election could lead to the appointment of judges who would sanction abortion and same-sex marriage.

The group People for the American Way said Rehnquist’s illness underscored the need for voters to “understand how a court with multiple Bush nominees could reverse many of the gains America has made in civil rights, environmental protection, religious liberty, reproductive freedom and so many other vital areas of American life.”