Editorial: Sooner or later L.A. will get hit by a Mexico-sized earthquake. We’re not as ready as we should be

How stunning and terrifying it is to watch the destruction in Mexico unfold in real time, with cellphone video capturing the devastation and panic and fear caused by a 7.1 magnitude earthquake. The sight of a building collapsing conveys the power of a temblor like no Great ShakeOut drill or lecture from the United States Geological Survey could ever do. Of course we mourn for the hundreds dead and worry for the displaced — but in the back of our minds we also know that, in fault-riddled California, it’s not a matter of if such geologic force will visit us but a matter of when.

Since earthquakes can’t be predicted on the small scale of our lifetimes, we tend to treat them like the high-risk-but-low-probability events that they are — and, for the most part, we ignore them. But we also know that for everyone who experienced the Mexico earthquake, the unlikely probability became a reality. And, some day, that will happen here in California.

The city of Los Angeles, commendably, has already passed sweeping laws mandating the retrofitting of concrete and soft-story wood buildings that were built before codes were strengthened in the 1970s. The process is lengthy and costly, but it is underway and that’s encouraging. Also, the city has rules in effect about how much of those costs landlords may pass on to their tenants. Still, most of the residential structures that need retrofitting have yet to get it. So if we get a big one tomorrow, some will fall.

Most of the laws require retrofitting to a standard known as “life safety.” But as seismologist Lucy Jones and others have urged, developers should be building to a standard stronger than that. Obviously, buildings should be able to withstand an earthquake so that people survive, but we also need to have an infrastructure that survives. We need to have buildings that are still standing and habitable even after an earthquake like the one in Mexico.

Some communities in Southern California have followed L.A.’s limited retrofitting lead. A survey by Jones, released last year, showed that fewer than 5% of the cities in six Southern California counties (San Diego County not included) had done anything about mandating retrofitting of their soft-story wood buildings. But since then, Santa Monica and West Hollywood have both put mandatory retrofitting laws into effect. And three dozen other cities have begun the process. A magnitude 7-plus earthquake on the San Andreas fault will damage the entire region.

Another important measure that could save lives in earthquake-prone areas is an early warning system. There is one in place in Mexico (and it gave residents of Mexico City a few seconds’ warning during this last quake) and one in Japan. Scientists working with the Geological Survey have been developing an earthquake warning system — called ShakeAlert — on the West Coast that could provide anywhere from a few seconds to a few minutes of warning, not only about the shaking that’s imminent but also about how intense it is expected to be.

That system’s federal funding — a modest $10 million — was imperiled by President Trump’s budget. However, Congress (and on this issue, there is bipartisan agreement within the California delegation) is working to restore the funding. President Trump should take this opportunity to pledge to fund the completion of that system — for a microfraction of what it will cost to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

While fortifying infrastructure is crucial, let’s not forget what happens after the earthquake is over. An earthquake of 7.1 or higher could leave you alive but stuck in a paralyzed community without power, water, functioning roadways and aqueducts, and Whole Foods. First responders could be a couple of days from getting to you. That’s why the American Red Cross suggests a preparation kit with a minimum of three days’ food along with water, flashlight, and batteries.

An earthquake as big as the one that shook Mexico is something that will test everyone’s resolve and fortitude and ability to cope, both emotionally and physically. No one wants to be tested like that. But we all need to prepare for the inevitability that we will be, sooner or later.

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