Two days before the Kentucky Derby, House
Republicans created a myth about the
Everything that Republicans said about the process that led to the ACA and worse is absolutely true, however, of Speaker
There's a reason for this rushed and opaque process — you don't refuse to wait for a CBO score if you expect good news. As Pelosi said before the vote, "forcing a vote without a CBO score shows that Republicans are afraid of the facts." Indeed, it's hard to overstate how scary the facts really are.
If it becomes law, the AHCA will strip insurance coverage from millions and millions of working people while giving the upper class a massive tax cut. At the last minute, Rep.
(Excuse me for not using precise numbers but, as stated, the GOP refused to allow the CBO to score the bill.)
Precisely because the bill is terrible, voting to pass it will be a political disaster for the Republican Party. The first version of the bill was massively unpopular, and this version won't do much better. There simply isn't any public constituency for passing a huge cut to federal healthcare spending, causing millions to lose insurance, and giving the money to the rich. Pelosi was right that the public would like Obamacare more when they found out what was in it, because most of its components were individually popular even when the bill was not. The same isn't true of Trumpcare — virtually everything in it is unpopular. It will almost certainly cost some blue-state Republican House members their seats in 2018, and it won't help Trump's bad approval ratings either.
It's unlikely that this slapdash and morally monstrous bill will be able to pass the Senate, even in modified form. Unlikely — but not impossible. Perversely, the political hit Republicans will take for going on the record in favor of Trumpcare might make it more likely to pass the Senate. For wavering Republicans, putting the party's House majority at serious risk and not even getting anything out of it would be the worst-case scenario.
Trumpcare would quite simply be a humanitarian nightmare, resulting in untold avoidable death and suffering for no good reason. At least it's now obvious — though it should have been obvious long ago — that Trump is not a compassionate populist and that Ryan is not a policy wonk. The fact that Republicans plan to hold a party to celebrate this great "victory" should make great fodder for midterm election attack ads.
Scott Lemieux is an instructor of political science at SUNY Albany and regular contributor to the New Republic and The Week.