Is It Necessary to Analyze Baseball Beyond Abstract?

I went out and bought a couple of new toys this week. Ludlum’s novel goes back on the shelf. Tax returns go back in the drawer. The weeds get another week’s head start. And who cares what’s on television.

No, I didn’t pick up a home computer with a software attachment that allows me to simulate a weekend trip with Indiana Jones.

With the baseball season about to begin, it was time for the rites of spring. It was time to buy The Bill James Baseball Abstract and The Elias Baseball Analyst, the Abstract’s newly available cousin.

I spend virtually every non-working hour perusing through their pages--and some working hours as well. After all, a sportswriter can get away with putting his feet on the desk and “researching” baseball statistics. Don’t business writers, like ballplayers, read the Wall Street Journal?

James’ book has fascinated me for the last four years, but it has to be read much as The Bible is read. With faith.

Simply stated, if such an expression can be applied to James’ endeavors, he has taken routine statistics and devised formulas for interpreting them. He has added what he calls the Brock2 System to such old standbys as Defensive Winning Percentage, Runs Created, Park Adjustment, Isolated Power, Value Approximation and Victory-Important RBI.

Anyone inclined can take the formulas and insert numbers of his own, but be forewarned that some of the formulas look like the hieroglyphics carved on the wall of a Pharaoh’s tomb. I generally accept what James has calculated, though I have dabbled in Runs Created and Expected Remaining Approximate Value or Trade Value.

Indeed, applying the Trade Value formula to the Padres’ deal with the Chicago White Sox, the calculator spits out numbers indicating the White Sox got the best of it. They surrendered LaMarr Hoyt (Trade Value: 16) for Tim Lollar (20), Luis Salazar (6) and Ozzie Guillen, an uncharted minor leaguer I am sure James would find a way to chart.

However, Hoyt’s Trade Value was based on his sub-par 1984 season. Go back a year and compute the numbers and Hoyt had a Trade Value of 59. If that figure is the real Hoyt, the Padres will come out on top, unless Ozzie is the Second Coming of Ozzie Smith.

Now it is time to make a confession. I like the Elias book better. It is probably because it is written in a language I have been able to understand since I agonized through 104 losses with the 1952 Detroit Tigers.

Batting averages.

Elias uses batting averages as a common denominator to unite batters and pitchers alike. Every kid who collects bubble gum cards knows Tony Gwynn hit .351, but how many people know National League hitters batted only .204 against Rich Gossage?

What is fascinating to me is that Elias breaks it down into much more detail, and batting averages remain the pivotal statistics. Elias strays occasionally, but does not slip into mysterious formulas that must be believed without being understood.

In fact, the Elias book has a lot of answers for questions I did not know existed, even though--in some cases--I probably should have wondered.

Indulge me, if you would, in a rather interesting--I think--statistical collection. I’ll provide the questions. Understand that the answers are based on numbers compiled by Elias during the 1984 season.

At what position were the Padres the weakest when the regular starter was out of the lineup?

Left field. The Padres were 8-14 when Carmelo Martinez was not in the starting lineup, 7-12 with Bobby Brown as his replacement, 1-1 with Ron Roenicke and 0-1 with Luis Salazar. Consider that Martinez, of all people, happens to be the one Padre who will start the 1985 season on the disabled list.

When should Tony Gwynn be benched?

Never, huh? Gwynn is hitless in eight times at bat against Steve Carlton. And someone named Mike Madden is the only pitcher to strike him out five times in his career. Gwynn does not encounter such maddening pitchers very often.

It is a pressure situation, the seventh inning or later in a close game and runners are on base. Who should the Padres least like to see stepping into the batter’s box?

Forget that dramatic Saturday night home run against the Cubbies, folks. Steve Garvey hit .136 in such situations during the regular season. However, he was still better than Terry Kennedy (.118) and Alan Wiggins (.067). Footnote: Gwynn hit .563 and Ryne Sandberg hit .143 under late-inning pressure with men on base.

Should Gossage be called from the bullpen at the start of an inning or after his predecessor has gotten into a jam?

Better bring him in at the start of an inning. Batters hit .252 against Gossage with teammates on base, but only .166 with the bases empty. What’s more, batters hit the Goose at a .296 clip with runners in scoring position and two out.

Who should the Padres want batting with runners in scoring position and two out?

Bobby Brown: .556. Ten of his 43 hits came in such situations.

When should Andy Hawkins be yanked?

Get him out of there if Tim Wallach (.643) or Johnny Ray (.583) are batting against him. But let him pitch to Gary Redus or Mookie Wilson, both 0 for 13.

Who would Pete Rose like to be facing when he is tied with Ty Cobb?

Rose has hit Eric Show for a .583 average. However, Andre Dawson (.056) and Steve Sax and Bill Russell (both 0 for 11) would probably like it if they never had to face Show.

Those are just hors d’oeuvres. The Elias book abounds with delicious tidbits. Tony Gwynn himself could be the answer to so many questions because he seemed to be the guy the Padres should want to have at bat in almost any circumstance.

However, Elias had one little twist I found particularly interesting in light of the post-season performance by the Padres’ starting pitchers. The same four guys who were knocked out in less than three innings five times in 10 postseason games departed that early only four times during the 162 regular season games.

I’m sure there are many more such gems to be mined.

As my son said this morning: “Don’t you go anywhere without that book anymore?”

“Of course,” I said. “The shower.”