The average Angeleno knows that when the Big One : happens, it definitely won’t happen to him

We keep hearing from our seismologists that it is only a matter of time--and not much time at that--before we are hit by the Big One, meaning, of course, the big earthquake.

Unfortunately--or perhaps fortunately--as clever as they are, they are not able yet to tell us exactly when it will come--whether next week, or next month or even next year. (Our psychics are strangely silent.)

But that it will come they are certain.

Meanwhile, no one really seems to worry about it, except people from the Midwest or the East who are here on a visit, and are more afraid of earthquakes than we are.

I don’t know exactly why we who live here are peculiarly immune to a rational fear of earthquakes. Perhaps it is because our climate is so benign, and we can’t really believe that nature would turn on us.

Perhaps it is because we have survived so many minor quakes that we can’t regard them as catastrophic, despite the obvious evidence of the recent catastrophes in Mexico City and Colombia.

Whatever the reason, we continue to live in our fragile houses, drive the freeways, work in glass boxes and most of us don’t take out earthquake insurance. Que sera sera.

It may seem just as well that seismologists can’t tell us exactly when the Big One is coming. According to a study made some years ago by behavioral scientists at the University of Colorado, just the reaction to a credible prediction would be disastrous in itself.

In a 40-page study based on hundreds of interviews with all kinds of people in California’s quake-prone areas, they foresaw that a pinpoint prediction would cause 60% of the residents to leave; those remaining would be sleeping and eating outdoors, avoiding older and taller buildings. Government agencies would move into trailers and other relatively earthquake-proof quarters.

While the social costs of these dislocations would be extremely high, the scientists said, the value in lives saved would be greater.

What leads me to these reflections is an appeal from Julian (Bud) Lesser of the Marina del Rey Earthquake Preparedness Committee, which seeks to warn Angelenos of the imminent danger and persuade them to prepare.

Ironically, he points out, it is the courage of the “Angeleno-in-the-street” that may undo him when the Big One comes.

“It’s a dilemma,” he says. “The valor of a soldier going into battle is sustained by his feeling that ‘It won’t happen to me.’ But if this soldier comes home to L.A. and treats the next earthquake in the same spirit, he blocks himself from controlling the damage. He’s inviting harm by defying it. He forgets that as a soldier he trained for battle. He took precautions.”

Lesser points out that there are many things a citizen can do in advance to lessen the impact of an earthquake on his life. In the first days after a major quake, police, fire and medical services will be overwhelmed. We’ll be on our own.

Lesser encloses a Red Cross list of tips: “Stay calm. Stand in a doorway, or crouch under a desk or table, away from windows or glass dividers. Outside--stand away from buildings, trees, telephone and electric lines. On the road--drive away from underpasses, overpasses; stop in safe areas, stay in vehicle.

“Afterward, give first aid. Check for gas, water, sewage breaks, downed electric wires; turn off if shorted or leaking. Turn on radio and listen for instructions from public safety agencies. Don’t use telephone except for emergencies.

“Have portable radio with extra batteries; flashlights, first-aid kit and manual, shoes, fire extinguisher, adjustable wrench for turning off gas and water; bottled water, canned and dried foods for a week. Non-electric can opener, portable stove, matches, bar of soap. . . . Things you need to know: How to turn off gas, water and electricity. First aid. Plan for reuniting your family.”

Those precautions should be easy enough to take, except that most of us probably don’t know how to turn off our gas, water and electricity.

Most of us don’t know first aid. Everyone is going to use the telephone to call his family. And almost nobody will stay calm.

Lesser says: “All agencies meet the same ennui. The average person listens, agrees, possibly reads the list, then does nothing. It won’t happen to him, or her. Yes, they say to themselves, they should do something, but they have a lurking fear that if they do, they might actually invite a quake.”

“Maybe the reluctance to act is like everyone’s aversion to writing a will. We put it off. But if one dies without a will, others still go on living. Put off quake preparation and one risks the whole family.

“As a former Marine, can you shed some light on the bravery dilemma for us?”

It’s true, as Lesser says, that soldiers don’t contemplate their own deaths. Even though they are called upon to go into battle, where the chances of their being killed are very good, they carry all kinds of life-enhancing articles--comb, toothbrush, pencils, diary, letters, photographs--because deep down they are sustained by a sense of immunity to death. It simply cannot happen to them. Its correlate is a sense that what will be will be.

Having survived the Long Beach earthquake of 1933, in which my high school was demolished and the city was devastated, I suppose I have that feeling of immunity myself.

But we really ought to get ready. If the scientists are right, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.