GREIN ON THE GRAMMYS

Paul Grein, a Billboard magazine columnist who handicaps the Grammys each year for Calendar, correctly predicted the winner in all six of the Grammy categories discussed last year in Calendar. Feeling frisky this year, Grein tries his hand at 16 races. Here, he lists the nominees in four key categories in order of projected finish--to give a better idea of each record’s chances. The other categories are on Page 68.

RECORD OF THE YEAR (1) “We Are the World,” USA for Africa; (2) “Born in the U.S.A.,” Bruce Springsteen; (3) “The Boys of Summer,” Don Henley; (4) “Money for Nothing,” Dire Straits; (5) “The Power of Love,” Huey Lewis & the News.

“We Are the World” sold more than 4 million singles, which is more than the other four finalists combined. It should win here by a similarly lopsided margin. Springsteen is the runner-up because he was 1985’s hottest artist and this is the Grammy voters’ only chance to honor him this year.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR (1) “No Jacket Required,” Phil Collins; (2) “Brothers in Arms,” Dire Straits; (3) “Whitney Houston”; (4) “We Are the World,” various artists; (5) “The Dream of the Blue Turtles,” Sting.

Collins has a slight edge over Dire Straits for three reasons: he’s a more visible personality, he’s closer to the pop mainstream and his album has yielded more hit singles. Still, Dire Straits is a strong challenger. The British band is nominated in two key categories where Collins was shut out: record and song. This is the toughest call of any of the major categories.

SONG OF THE YEAR (1) “We Are the World”; (2) “Money for Nothing”; (3) “The Boys of Summer”; (4) “I Want to Know What Love Is”; (5) “Everytime You Go Away.”

“We Are the World” figures to win, but by much less of a margin than in the Best Record category. The reason is simple: This is a songwriter’s award, and the consensus seems to be that while “We Are the World” was a good song, what made it a great record was the performances of the assembled stars. Still, it’s the anthem of the decade, and that should put it over the top.

BEST POP DUO/GROUP VOCAL

(1) “We Are the World”; (2) “The Power of Love”; (3) “Easy Lover,” Philip Bailey and Phil Collins; (4) “I Want to Know What Love Is,” Foreigner; (5) “Broken Wings,” Mr. Mister.

This could be even closer than the song balloting. A lot of voters are apt to think that the Grammy should go to an established group or duo, rather than to this one-shot assemblage of superstars. Still, voters may have a hard time deciding on an alternative, enabling “We Are the World” to sneak through.

NEW ARTIST--Sade. If Whitney Houston hadn’t been ruled ineligible because of two duets she recorded in 1984, this would have been one of the tightest races on the ballot. As it is, Sade’s only serious competition comes from Julian Lennon. And even sentiment for the son of a fallen Beatle isn’t likely to overcome Sade’s No. 1 chart success.

FEMALE POP VOCAL--Whitney Houston’s “Saving All My Love For You.” No real contest. Last year’s winner, Tina Turner, should finish second.

MALE POP VOCAL--Phil Collins’ “No Jacket Required.” Sting will also have support, but not enough to keep Collins from winning his second straight victory in this category.

FEMALE ROCK VOCAL--Tina Turner’s “One of the Living.” Turner’s second win in a row in this category will see her edging out Pat Benatar.

MALE ROCK VOCAL--Don Henley’s “The Boys of Summer.” Henley should be an easy winner despite exceptionally strong competition: John Cougar Mellencamp, John Fogerty, Bryan Adams and Mick Jagger.

ROCK GROUP/DUO VOCAL-- Dire Straits’ “Money for Nothing.” Assuming they lose the coin toss with Collins for Best Album, this will be their consolation prize.

R&B; FEMALE VOCAL--Aretha Franklin’s “Freeway of Love.” Whitney Houston and Patti LaBelle are strong competitors, but Franklin should still be able to cruise to her 10th award in this category.

R&B; MALE VOCAL--Luther Vandross’ “The Night I Fell in Love.” Vandross has had years of critical acclaim and platinum albums, but this will be his first Grammy--provided he can beat a hit ballad by Freddie Jackson.

R&B; GROUP/DUO VOCAL--The Commodores’ “Nightshift.” A victory for the Commodores would be doubly sweet: They’ve never won a Grammy, and virtually everyone in the industry wrote them off after Lionel Richie left the group a few years ago. The only obstacle: a strong challenge from Ashford & Simpson’s “Solid.”

COUNTRY FEMALE VOCAL--Rosanne Cash’s “I Don’t Know Why You Don’t Want Me.” This will be the first Grammy for the daughter of Johnny Cash (who has won six Grammys and is likely to win another this year).

COUNTRY MALE VOCAL--Ricky Skaggs’ “You Make Me Feel Like a Man.” Skaggs won last year in the country instrumentalist category, but this will be his first vocal Grammy.

COUNTRY GROUP VOCAL--Willie Nelson/Johnny Cash/Waylon Jennings/Kris Kristofferson’s “Highwayman.” Look for this supergroup collaboration to block a repeat win by the Judds.