Tigers Eye Comeback; Dodgers Dealt Setback : BASEBALL PREVIEW ’86 : Despite Loss of Guerrero, L.A. Is Tabbed

Showman that he is, Pete Rose would rather see Pedro Guerrero’s name on a marquee than on the disabled list.

“It’s just better for the game of baseball if the stars go out there and star,” said Rose, whose own box-office smash, “The Hit,” turned Ty Cobb into a second banana last summer.

Competitor that he is, Rose said the Dodgers should not rupture just because Guerrero’s tendon did.

“The show’s got to go on,” Rose said. “You can’t feel sorry for yourself if something like that happens.

” . . . They (the Dodgers) will stay competitive and close. Their pitching can enable them to do that.”

Until Guerrero went down, however, the Dodgers weren’t interested in merely being competitive. They believed, and with reason, that they would become the first National League team since the 1978 Dodgers to repeat as division champions.

“If we can get off to a good start, we could have a fantastic season,” Vice President Al Campanis had said.

That was two days before Guerrero’s spikes caught and tripped a fright fantastic, leaving one shattered Dominican and Dodger Manager Tom Lasorda to pick up the pieces.

“There’s nothing to do,” Dodger veteran Enos Cabell said, “but bow your neck and play well.”

But come October, there are at least three other teams in the West who could be taking bows as division champions, foremost among them Rose’s Cincinnati Reds.

In the East, the Killer Tarp has gone underground, the electric fan is unplugged, and Don Denkinger has gone back to the American League, taking Joaquin Andujar with him. And the schmoes have been cleared out of the clubhouse.

All is safe for the St. Louis Cardinals to come out again. But not for long.

The Cardinals, who probably lost the World Series last fall on the day rookie Vince Coleman disappeared under the Busch Stadium tarp roller, won’t have a freak accident to blame should they fail to get to the Series again.

This time, it could be an act of nature. How else would you describe Dwight Gooden?

“He ain’t God, man,” Chili Davis said of the New York Mets’ Cy Young Award winner last season.

But there are more believers than nonbelievers when it comes to Gooden, the first pitcher since Sandy Koufax in 1966 to lead the majors in all three major pitching categories--wins (24), strikeouts (268) and earned-run average (1.53).

And Gooden is not alone. The Mets won more games in the last two years (188) than any other team in the league, and this season, they plan on having something to show for those wins.

“We had injuries last season and won 98 games,” Met Manager Davey Johnson said. “The Cardinals were injury-free.

“And my young staff (Gooden, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez and Rick Aguilera) has grown up. They’ve matured in the last couple of years. They’re going to be even better than they have been.”

If true, that should be enough to make even the hairs in Whitey Herzog’s modified crewcut stand on end.

A team-by-team forecast, by division: WESTERN DIVISION

1. Dodgers--For the first time since 1982, the Dodgers planned to start the season with a set lineup built along traditional lines--plenty of power, pitching and experience. Then they lost Guerrero. “We’re too good a team to rely on one man,” catcher Mike Scioscia said. It remains to be seen how dependable Greg Brock and Mike Marshall will be in Guerrero’s absence, whether Franklin Stubbs is a bona fide big leaguer, whether Bill Madlock’s nagging injuries in the spring (phlebitis, sore elbow) will avoid developing into anything more serious, whether the Dodgers will catch the ball when it is hit at them. The pitching, they still have, although reliever Ken Howell’s ineffectiveness this spring, a carryover from the fall, remains a concern. Still the team to beat.

2. Cincinnati Reds--A team with an 89-year-old first baseman (when you combine the ages of Pete Rose and Tony Perez) came within 4 1/2 games of the division-leading Dodgers last September, slicing five games off the Dodger lead in a five-day span. Since then, the Reds have added pitching--John Denny and Bill Gullickson--to a staff that already had Mario Soto and Tom Browning, a 20-game winner as a rookie.

And they brought in a few kids, including a 20-year-old switch- hitting shortstop from Thousand Oaks, Kurt Stillwell, who may supplant Davey Concepcion by June.

The Reds are primed to make a run for the Roses (Pete and Carol), not to mention the Schotts (owner Marge and St. Bernard Schottzie). But it will be strictly dog days if Dave Parker doesn’t come close to repeating his MVP-type season of a year ago.

3. San Diego Padres--It was only a month ago that Kroc’s Landing was a McMess, what with owner Joan Kroc fighting publicly with General Manager Jack McKeon and team president--not to mention son-in-law--Ballard Smith over the fate of Dick Williams.

Williams, or Mr. Macho, as he was called by Padre center fielder Kevin McReynolds, is gone, replaced by courtly Steve Boros, which should make for a few less bleeps around the Padre clubhouse.

Now, if a Bip--in this case, rookie second baseman Bip Roberts--can put the beep-beep back in their running game, the Padres might be right back to where they were on the Fourth of July a year ago--in first place, five games ahead of the Dodgers.

A fully recovered LaMarr Hoyt, who spent most of the spring in an alcohol-drug treatment center, could make the difference.

And keep an eye out for a runaway Kruk--rookie outfielder John Kruk, who hit over .500 this spring.

4. Atlanta Braves--They’re calling it the April Fools’ Day Massacre, the day that Bobby Cox, the Braves’ new general manager, and Chuck Tanner, the new manager, axed three-fifths of the Braves’ starting rotation from two years ago: Len Barker, Pascual Perez and Rick Camp. They also put the squeeze on Terry (Fat Tub of Goo) Forster, giving the ex-Dodger reliever his release.

In their place, it will be Rick Mahler (17-15) and a Zane (Smith), a Palmer (David) and a Johnson (Joe), as Tanner hopes to achieve with this young staff what he did with the White Sox in 1971, when he had a couple of kids by the name of Gossage and Forster.

The Braves already have a formidable starting eight, which became stronger when catcher Ozzie Virgil was added to supplement the Dale Murphy-Bob Horner power axis (a combined 64 home runs and 200 RBIs). And they have Bruce Sutter, who appears healthy after undergoing December shoulder surgery.

5. Houston Astros--They have a new general manager (Dick Wagner), a new manager (Hal Lanier) and a new character (Yogi Berra). But otherwise, the Astros appear to be the same boring bunch that finished dead last in road attendance last season.

Jose Cruz is back to retain his title as the league’s Most Underrated Player, but Nolan Ryan was throwing 86 m.p.h. fastballs this spring after a season in which he won just 10 games, his worst record in seven seasons. Mike Scott discovered the split-fingered fastball and won 18 games last season, but there’s not much after him.

6. San Francisco Giants--Jack Clark did not come back. That’s only his number, on the back of rookie sensation Will Clark, attempting to make the leap from Class A to the big leagues in a single bound. In fact, the entire Giant infield (Clark, Rob Thompson, Jose Uribe and Chris Brown) has a combined total of 2 years 48 days of big- league experience. But when you’ve lost 100 games for the first time in your history, you’ve got to start somewhere. EASTERN DIVISION

1. New York Mets--They haven’t won a division title since 1973, but Darryl Strawberry may have sent a message to St. Louis last October when he pulled his Roy Hobbs routine, smashing the Busch Stadium clock with a 460-foot home run in a 1-0 Met win.

Strawberry was out of the lineup for seven weeks last season with a thumb injury. Without him, the Mets were 20-24. He still hit 29 home runs and stole 26 bases while driving in 79 runs, and at 24, is on the verge of a 40-homer, 40-stolen base season.

Manager Davey Johnson noticed a difference in Strawberry this spring. “He’s stronger,” Johnson said.

Great. The Mets already have Gary Carter, the first Met catcher ever to drive in 100 runs, and Keith Hernandez, whose .309 average and 24 game-winning RBIs did not reflect the trauma he said he felt during last summer’s Pittsburgh drug trial.

The left side of the Mets’ infield is suspect and reliever Jesse Orosco has to prove he’s OK, but this may be the dominant team in baseball in 1986.

2. St. Louis Cardinals--Tired of his act, the Cardinals gave up Joaquin Andujar last winter. They also gave up his 270 innings. Then, a week before the start of the season, 18-game winner Danny Cox fell off a three-foot seawall while fishing and broke his ankle.

And Whitey Herzog thought it was tough to replace Bruce Sutter.

Herzog managed that with the BBC (Bullpen by Committee) which now features Todd Worrell, the only alumnus of La Mirada’s Biola College to qualify as a holy terror with his Gossage-like fastball.

For starters, he still has John Tudor, who may have bloodied his hand on an electric fan but punched out opposing teams by a 22-2 margin from the end of May on.

And any pitcher would benefit from a lineup that features the world’s greatest defense, with league MVP Willie McGee and the Wizard, Ozzie Smith; a base stealer like Coleman who has yet to kick into high gear; and Jack Clark, a jackhammer among jackrabbits.

The Cardinals gave it the Rodney Dangerfield treatment last season. They win it this year, and no one will short-change them with respect.

3. Chicago Cubs--If the Cubs can keep their pitchers out of the hospital, and if the Penguin, Ron Cey, isn’t on his last waddle, Wrigley Field could be jumping again this summer. Shawon Dunston appears ready to take over at short, Ryne Sandberg is still special at second and Lee Smith is as fearsome as ever in the bullpen. But will Rick Sutcliffe, Dennis Eckersley, Scott Sanderson and Steve Trout combine for a 47-21 record, as they had in ‘84, or 33-28, as they did last season, when only Eckersley reached double figures in wins?

4. Philadelphia Phillies--This may be the league’s most unpredictable team. The first six batters in their lineup--Milt Thompson, Gary Redus, Juan Samuel, Mike Schmidt, Von Hayes and Glenn Wilson--are as explosive as anybody’s. They added Steve Bedrosian in the bullpen and they still have Steve Carlton, winner of 314 games. Only problem is, just one of those wins came last season, when Carlton’s shoulder gave out. He has to prove he’s healthy.

5. Montreal Expos--It’s a race to see whether the Expos can trade three- time All-Star Andre Dawson, who is eligible to become a free agent after this season, before his knee gives out. Even with Dawson less than 100%, the Expos challenged for much of last season, as Hubie Brooks became the first shortstop since Ernie Banks to drive in 100 runs and Jeff (the Terminator) Reardon recorded a league-leading 41 saves. They also have Gooden’s boyhood buddy, Floyd Youmans, who has some of Gooden’s speed but none of his control (49 walks in 77 innings).

But even with Montreal’s most splendid joueur, Tim Raines (.320 average, 115 runs scored, 30 doubles, 13 triples, 11 home runs and 70 stolen bases) the Expos appear to have too many holes (catching and center field) to challenge again.

The Expos did acquire Jason Thompson to shore up first base, but it probably isn’t enough.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates--This team’s slogan is “We’re Playing Hardball.” At times, the people of Pittsburgh will need that reminder. Tony Pena, Johnny Ray, Rick Reuschel and a cast of thousands. 1985 FINAL STANDINGS NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.L. WEST Won Lost Pct. GB Last 10 Streak Home Away Los Angeles 95 67 .586 -- *6-4 Lost 1 48-33 47-34 Cincinnati 89 72 .553 5 1/2 *6-4 Won 1 47-34 42-38 Houston 83 79 .512 12 5-5 Won 2 44-37 39-42 San Diego 83 79 .512 12 *7-3 Lost 2 44-37 39-42 Atlanta 66 96 .407 29 4-6 Won 1 32-49 34-47 San Francisco 62 100 .383 33 3-7 Lost 1 38-43 24-57 N.L. EAST Won Lost Pct. GB Last 10 Streak Home Away St. Louis 101 61 .623 -- *5-5 Lost 1 55-26 47-34 New York 98 64 .605 3 *6-4 Lost 2 51-30 47-34 Montreal 84 77 .522 16 1/2 5-5 Won 2 44-37 40-40 Chicago 77 84 .478 23 1/2 6-4 Won 1 41-39 36-45 Philadelphia 75 87 .463 26 4-6 Won 1 41-40 34-47 Pittsburgh 57 104 .354 431/2 4-6 Lost 1 35-45 22-59

*-Denotes first game was a win.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

A.L. WEST Won Lost Pct. GB Last 10 Streak Home Away Kansas City 91 71 .562 -- 5-5 Lost 1 50-32 41-39 California 90 72 .556 1 4-6 Won 2 49-30 41-42 Chicago 85 77 .525 6 *7-3 Won 3 45-36 40-41 Minnesota 77 85 .475 14 7-3 Won 2 49-35 28-50 Oakland 77 85 .475 14 3-7 Won 1 43-36 34-49 Seattle 74 88 .457 17 3-7 Lost 3 42-41 32-47 Texas 62 99 .385 28 1/2 *5-5 Lost 2 37-42 25-57 A.L. EAST Won Lost Pct. GB Last 10 Streak Home Away Toronto 99 62 .615 -- 4-6 Lost 1 54-26 45-36 New York 97 64 .602 2 *8-2 Won 1 58-22 39-42 Detroit 84 77 .522 15 5-5 Won 1 44-37 40-40 Baltimore 83 78 .516 16 3-7 Lost 1 45-36 38-42 Boston 81 81 .500 18 1/2 *5-5 Lost 4 44-38 37-43 Milwaukee 71 90 .441 28 4-6 Won 3 40-40 31-50 Cleveland 60 102 .370 39 1/2 6-4 Lost 2 38-43 22-59

*-Denotes first game was a win.