Study Projects Next 2 Decades : Los Angeles, Washington Likely to Lead Job Growth

Major cities will continue to be the focus of most new employment in the coming two decades, with Los Angeles and Washington adding the greatest number of jobs, a private study projects.

The Washington and Los Angeles metropolitan areas are the only areas expected to gain more than 1 million new jobs by the year 2010, according to the report from the National Planning Assn.

But the Anaheim and Houston regions may gain nearly a million jobs, the study adds. And important growth is also anticipated in such areas as Atlanta, Philadelphia, Dallas, Boston, Chicago and New York.

Carlton Strong, of the Washington-based independent research organization, said that as in recent decades, the biggest growth potential appears to be in the South and West. But larger cities in other regions could also show expanding job markets, as nearly 86% of new jobs will be in metropolitan areas.

Overall, Strong said, the United States is expected to gain 43 million new jobs by the year 2010.

A diverse economic base will help the Los Angeles-Long Beach metropolitan area lead the nation in new jobs, Strong explained, with the increase there expected to be 1.4 million to a total of 5.96 million in the year 2010.

Major factors there, Strong said, will include the expanding financial community and the increasing focus on Los Angeles as a center for Pacific trade.

Washington, the only other metropolitan area to top a million in growth, is expected to add 1.15 million jobs for a total of 3.42 million in 2010.

Service businesses, especially those performing jobs for the government, are likely to be the major factor in Washington and its Maryland and Virginia suburbs.

In general, large older metropolitan areas that already have strong economic bases are likely to see added growth, the group indicated, and smaller areas nearby will probably benefit from spillover.

An example, Strong said, is the Anaheim-Santa Ana area south of Los Angeles, where spillover development is expected to boost that urban area to third on the growth list, adding 978,000 jobs for a total of 2.21 million in 2010. JOB GROWTH Here is a list of total jobs, in thousands, and the projected increase between 1985 and 2010, in thousands.

Jobs in Gain City 2010 from ’85 Los Angeles 5,961 1,399 Washington 3,416 1,146 Anaheim 2,209 978 Houston 2,700 957 Atlanta 2,367 863 Philadelphia 3,263 857 Dallas 2,383 850 Boston 3,171 814 Chicago 4,170 787 New York 5,263 720 Phoenix 1,672 681 San Diego 1,780 650 Minneapolis 1,969 576 Denver 1,566 566 Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 1,845 553 Tampa, Fla. 1,415 522 San Jose 1,430 503 San Francisco 1,597 466 Baltimore 1,712 465 Seattle 1,479 464 Oakland 1,393 435 Detroit 2,397 434 Miami 1,369 413 Fort Lauderdale 948 412 Orlando, Fla. 907 408 St. Louis 1,672 380 Sacramento 1,005 376 Riverside 1,065 358 Columbus, Ohio 1,044 329 W. Palm Beach, Fla. 673 295 Norfolk, Va. 1,014 291 Middlesex, N.J. 822 287 San Antonio 898 284 Fort Worth 891 284 Kansas City 1,116 276 Salt Lake City 786 272 Austin, Tex. 698 267 Newark, N.J. 1,309 253 Portland, Ore. 889 251

Source: National Planning Assn.