The Changing Face of L.A.’s Schools

A demographic study paints a portrait of the future for the nation’s second-largest school system. Among the findings: A growing dominance of Latino students that some officials believe will have far-reaching implications on the district’s policies.

A long-range demographic study of the Los Angeles Unified School District released on Thursday offered a jarring portrait of a school system that is overflowing with students in some parts and steadily losing them in others.

It also confirmed the growing dominance of Latino students which, several board members said, will have far-reaching implications on policies ranging from integration to whether more year-round schools should be established.

According to a report from Criterion Inc., a San Diego-based research firm hired by the Los Angeles school district last year, the nation’s second-largest school system, with 590,000 students, will grow to 707,000 in 1996.

The increase will be largely due to a mushrooming Latino enrollment, the study showed. Over the next four years alone, the district is expected to gain about 70,000 Latino students, the majority of whom will live in areas where schools already are the most crowded--near downtown, along the Wilshire corridor, in the East San Fernando Valley and the southeastern part of the district.

Meanwhile, the study projected a steady decline in non-Latino white enrollment, from 19% now to 12% in 10 years. The greatest loss of Anglo students will occur on the Westside, the West Valley and the Harbor area.

The report showed that the percentage of black students also will drop, from 19% to 15%. At the same time, the study indicated, a good number of black youngsters are leaving historically black schools in the inner city and relocating to the Westside and parts of the Valley. Latino students are rapidly taking their place in the inner-city schools.

Latino growth will be greatest in the downtown area, according to the report. The Belmont High School area alone is expected to gain 16,000 students over the next 10 years, of whom 12,800 will be Latino. To meet this demand, the district already has plans to build five elementary schools and a junior and senior high school in the Belmont area over the next several years.

By contrast, school enrollments in the Pacific Palisades area will drop over the next decade by approximately 300 students, of whom most will be Anglo.

Asian enrollment districtwide will rise slightly, to 10% by 1996 from 8.5% now. Certain areas will experience a significant climb in numbers of Asian students, however. In the Franklin High School area in northeast Los Angeles, the Criterion study predicted an influx of 1,000 new Asian students over the next 10 years, while the Belmont area is expected to gain 3,000 additional Asian youngsters.

The study, board members say, has broad policy implications that will influence the board’s future decisions on a wide variety of issues.

For instance, East Valley board member Roberta Weintraub said that the figures indicating continued “white flight” should convince the board that it should not expand the district’s year-round school program. White parents primarily from the Westside and the West Valley have vigorously opposed the district’s plan to add as many as 78 schools to the year-round system in order to alleviate crowding.

“Year-round school will drive out the (white) middle class,” Weintraub said.

Westside board member Alan Gershman, however, said the study demonstrated the need for the entire district to adopt a year-round calendar. That need, he said, also may mean that district officials must work harder to convince the Legislature that it must provide more money to air-condition schools so that they may operate comfortably during the summer months.

At the same time, Gershman said, the ethnic trends shown in the report further cloud the question of how much integration can be achieved in a district that may have only a 12% Anglo component in 10 years.