NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW : Giants Will Put It Together as Mets Come Apart

Before news of Dwight Gooden’s drug problem hit with all the force of one of his high, inside fastballs, those predicting the demise of the New York Mets had only the popular champions-don’t-repeat argument to support their belief.

That, by itself, is not a bad theory. No National League division winner has repeated since the Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies in 1978. Since then, it seems, only bad things have befallen champions.

Look at what happened last season to the St. Louis Cardinals and the Dodgers, the 1985 National League divisional winners. The Dodgers lost Pedro Guerrero to a serious knee injury and subsequently lost a lot of games. The Cardinals lost several quality players to injuries, lousy years or both. They, too, lost a lot of games.

Already, bad things are happening to the Mets, who, according the theory, figure to fall even harder because they won the World Series last season. If that happens, the vastly improved Phillies, featuring newly acquired catcher Lance Parrish, are waiting to pounce on the Mets’ misfortune.

Last week, Gooden, the Mets’ All-Star pitcher, tested positive for cocaine and was admitted to a rehabilitation center. The week before that, reliever Roger McDowell underwent surgery and will miss at least a month.

The severity of Gooden’s loss cannot be overstated. A winner of 24 games in 1985 and 17 last season, Gooden is the ace of a stacked-deck starting staff that includes Ron Darling, Bob Ojeda and Sid Fernandez. But without Dr. K, Met pitching might be KO’d.

Since the season hasn’t even started, the Mets probably are wondering what else can go wrong over 162 games. But then, they still have one of the National League’s most potent lineups, bolstered by the addition of left fielder Kevin McReynolds.

If the Mets do win again, what’s left for them to write? Everyone from Darryl Strawberry to Len Dykstra bared his soul and batting average in tell-all books over the off-season. What would be next, “Mookie Wilson Revisited”?

But the book on the Mets in 1987 is that they are a good bet not to repeat. You see it all the time in these days of instant-print dynasties that develop before your eyes, then crack and fade.

If the Mets, will be a case of overexposure, then the Houston Astros, defending Western Division champions, might suffer from double exposure. Many believe this band of overachievers played twice as well as their ability.

Any of four teams--the Astros, Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds--are capable of winning in the West, which seems more competitive, if not as strong, as the East.

Lobbyists for a resumption of the Dodger-Giant rivalry will be heartened to know that both teams are expected to have strong seasons.

The Giants, resurrected by Manager Roger Craig last season, seemingly have the best talent in the West, the qualifier being that half their regulars had off-season surgery or are recovering from injuries.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have Guerrero and other oft-injured regulars back and healthy, and they are hoping that their 1985 success will be repeated.

But Cincinnati, which boasts perhaps the West’s best offensive team, and Houston, which arguably has the best pitching, cannot be counted out.

There are other subplots to the 1987 season, such as Phillie Mike Schmidt’s quest for 500 home runs--he needs only five--and the question of whether he will retire at the season’s end, and whether Red Manager Pete Rose will make another stab at playing when he is eligible to come off the reserve list May 15.

A team-by-team outlook for the National League, with the predicted finish, appears on Page 13.

NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW TEAM-BY-TEAM OUTLOOK, WITH PREDICTED FINISHES. WEST DIVISION

1. San Francisco Giants--It is always dangerous predicting how the Giants will play. Just when you think these guys might be decent, they lose 100 games. But then, when you expect them to hit the century mark in losses once more, they prove you wrong again.

So, picking San Francisco to win the West automatically guarantees failure, right? Perhaps not this time.

At least, that’s the opinion of Manager Roger Craig, who last season turned a big loser into a respectable club, 83-79, despite an inordinate number of injuries. Craig may be right, but a few key injuries could plunge the Giants back into the second division.

The Giants, though, probably have the best overall starting eight in the West.

First baseman Will Clark, who hit .287 and batted in 41 runs in 1986, contended for Rookie-of-the-Year honors until suffering a hyperextended wrist that sidelined him for about 40 games. Second baseman Rob Thompson, .271 and 47 RBIs, was runner-up in that voting, but he had minor knee surgery in the off-season. Jose Uribe is a solid defensive shortstop who hit over .400 in the spring but will likely settle at a considerably lower level during the season. Bob Brenly is steady at catcher.

Third base is both a strength and a question mark. Chris Brown finished fifth in the league in hitting with a .317 average, but he missed the last month of the season with a shoulder injury that required surgery. Brown, an excellent defensive third baseman, has returned, but the exact status of his shoulder has yet to be determined. Matt Williams, the Giants’ first-round draft pick in 1986, will start if Brown is not ready.

The outfield is solid with former Dodger Candy Maldonado, 18 home runs and 85 RBIs, in right field; Jeffrey Leonard, .279, in left, and Chili Davis, .278 and 53 RBIs, in center. Leonard missed most the second half of 1986 with a wrist injury and Davis had off-season arthroscopic shoulder surgery, but both supposedly are recovered.

Pitching is a question mark. Mike Krukow, who won 20 games for the first time in his career in 1986; Mike LaCoss, 10-13; Kelly Downs, 4-0 at the end of last season; Mark Davis, released from the bullpen, and Roger Mason, 3-4, are the starters. Atlee Hammaker, who had two shoulder operations, is on the disabled list. Scott Garrelts is the stopper out of the bullpen. Greg Minton and Jeff Robinson are the Giants’ other relievers.

2. Dodgers--Pitching and Pedro Guerrero are the keys for the Dodgers, whose divisional title slipped away when Guerrero tore up his knee on the final day of spring training a year ago. That was followed by injuries to other regulars, including Mike Marshall. If the Dodgers score more runs for the solid starting pitchers and improve their defense even a little, they should be able to reclaim the division title.

3. Cincinnati Reds--The Reds mirror their highly touted center fielder Eric Davis. Both the club and its star-in-training have shown glimpses of brilliance but have been unable to sustain it.

Popular opinion is that Davis will finally emerge as a standout player, and the Reds will emerge with the West title after two straight second-place finishes.

True, the Reds have a good infield and an excellent outfield, but they seem to lack the strong pitching of the Dodgers and Houston Astros.

Tom Browning, 14-13 with a 3.81 earned-run average last season after winning 20 games in 1985, and Bill Gullickson, 15-12 and 3.38, are Cincinnati’s best starters. Mario Soto, coming off shoulder surgery, will begin the season on the disabled list, so Rose probably will go with former Dodger and converted reliever Ted Power in the rotation. John Franco is the bullpen stopper. The Reds’ outfield consists of an established star, Dave Parker, in right; an emerging star, Davis, in center, and a future star, Kal Daniels, in left. Parker had 31 home runs and 119 RBIs last season, Davis 27 home runs and 71 RBIs, and Daniels hit .320 in 74 games with the Reds last season.

The infield is set, except for first base. Nick Esasky was handed the job, but he broke a wrist and will be out for six weeks. Terry Francona and Dave Concepcion, 38, will split first-base duty.

And, of course, don’t count out another comeback by Rose, who will be 46 next week. The Reds may need him again more than many think.

“I don’t care about none of them (in the West), just us,” Rose said.

4. Houston Astros--The best five-man starting rotation has to belong to the Astros, who rode that strength to the West title last season and nearly as far as a World Series appearance.

The Astro starters--Mike Scuff, uh, Scott, Nolan Ryan, Bob Knepper, Jim Deshaies and Danny Darwin--still figure to be effective and, in Scott’s case, dominating.

But Houston is running low on depth and, perhaps, luck. None of the Astros’ regulars spent time on the disabled list during 1986, which is not likely to happen again. Should injuries hit this season, there isn’t much on the bench, especially since Dickie Thon left the team after experiencing problems with his vision.

There is also the theory that the Astros are stocked with overachievers who are bound to slip back this season. But Manager Hal Lanier isn’t expecting that from any starter, especially not from Glenn Davis, who hit 31 home runs and had 101 RBIs.

The Astros’ vaunted pitching might not be as strong if Ryan, 40, has a recurrence of elbow problems. Ryan decided against off-season surgery for the strained right ligament and is hoping that prolonged rest healed it.

5. San Diego Padres--New ownership, subject to league approval, of course, isn’t the only thing that’s changed down south. The Padres, who flirted with free-agent outfielder Tim Raines, decided instead to remain on their youth kick.

The result may be that the Padres, recently bid on by Seattle Mariner owner George Argyros, will get kicked around a lot this season. But come back in a few years . . .

New Manager Larry Bowa inherits a team in the early stages of rebuilding, a team that has General Manager Jack McKeon proclaiming: “We’ve got the best young kids we’ve ever had.”

Those kids include center fielder Stan Jefferson, catcher Benito Santiago, second baseman Joey Cora, third baseman Kevin Mitchell and left fielder John Kruk, all of whom are rookies or second-year players. Of course, the Padres still have 38-year-old Steve Garvey and All-Star outfielder Tony Gwynn.

Traded to the Mets were outfielder Kevin McReynolds and reliever Gene Walter, and traded to the Baltimore Orioles was catcher Terry Kennedy. From the Mets, the Padres received Jefferson, Mitchell and outfielder Shawn Abner, who will play in Triple-A this season. Pitcher Storm Davis came to the Padres’ in the Kennedy deal.

San Diego’s other starters figure to be Eric Show, Andy Hawkins, Ed Whitson and either rookie Jimmy Jones or Ed Wojna.

6. Atlanta Braves--Bob Horner spent his spring mornings attending aerobics classes with Dallas housewives and trying to find a team other than the Braves that wants him.

So desperate were the Braves for help that they signed 42-year-old Graig Nettles, who had to endure a tryout, as a backup infielder. At some point this season, he might be a starter. The one who might miss Horner the most is Dale Murphy, who won’t see too many good pitches without Horner in the lineup.

Gerald Perry will be Horner’s replacement at first base, although Nettles will also see time there and as Ken Oberkfell’s backup at third base.

Glenn Hubbard will start at second base because Damaso Garcia will have to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery. The Braves have one quality starting pitcher, Rick Mahler.

The outlook is bleak.

EAST DIVISION

1. Philadelphia Phillies--The Phillies were the only team to win a season series against the Mets last season, and that was without additions Lance Parrish and Mike Easler.

Unquestionably, the Phillies did the most of any club to try to improve themselves and it might be enough to nudge them ahead of the Mets this season.

After weeks of negotiating, the Phillies finally signed Parrish, the free agent who figures to solve the club’s catching problem. Easler, acquired from the New York Yankees in the off-season, is a .300 hitter who had 14 home runs and 78 RBIs last season as a designated hitter.

Offense is no problem. Mike Schmidt won the MVP award last season after hitting 37 home runs and driving in 119 runs. Easler and Parrish are proven hitters, and Von Hayes finally lived up to expectations last season by hitting .305 with 19 home runs and 98 RBIs. Glenn Wilson, who has had 186 RBIs in the last two seasons, will bat seventh in a strong order.

But the key to the Phillies’ success is how well they can prevent runs.

Even after acquiring starter Joe Cowley from the Chicago White Sox for center fielder Gary Redus, the Phillies’ pitching is suspect. The starting rotation figures to comprise Kevin Gross, 12-12 last season; Don Carman, who was both starter and reliever; Shane Rawley, coming off an injury, and Bruce Ruffin, who went 9-4 after replacing Steve Carlton early last season. Gross has a herniated disk in his back and may have to open the season on the disabled list.

The bullpen, led by Steve Bedrosian and Kent Tekulve, is strong--and it had better be.

Philadelphia’s defense was porous last season and Parrish’s arrival probably will help only a little. Juan Samuel had the most errors of any National League second baseman, Steve Jeltz the third-most errors of any shortstop. Milt Thompson is an excellent defensive center fielder, but he’ll have to be to cover for Easler in left.

Assuming that the pitching and defense improve and the offense remains as good as it was, Parrish may push the Phillies past the Mets. But Parrish’s bad back is still a question mark.

2. New York Mets--A stay in a drug rehabilitation center doesn’t mean that Dwight Gooden will not help the Mets this season. Although the Mets haven’t said how long Gooden will be out, he still figures to start lots of games.

Short term, the Mets can survive without their best pitcher. But they will be in trouble if Gooden’s comeback extends much past May.

The Mets did not spend all of the off-season making headlines for off-the-field incidents. They also improved on their World Series championship club with the acquisition of left fielder McReynolds from the Padres.

But the Mets lost third baseman Ray Knight to Baltimore--Howard Johnson is the likely replacement--so that figures to make the Mets about the same as last season, which still has to be scary to the other National League teams.

McReynolds gives the Mets right-hand hitting power to complement Gary Carter, Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry. Strawberry has yet to reach the high level experts say he can reach, and he proved again this spring, by missing a game and blasting Manager Davey Johnson, that he has yet to mature.

The pressure and obstacles already are there for the Mets, who won the East title by 21 1/2 games. Besides Gooden, the injury to McDowell will hurt. McDowell, the bullpen ace who had 14 wins and 22 saves last season, will be out for two months after undergoing surgery for a hernia.

“Nobody has to do great things for us to win,” said Johnson, still optimistic. “Wally Backman doesn’t have to hit home runs. Lenny Dykstra doesn’t have to turn into a home run hitter. Gary Carter doesn’t have to hit 35. . . . Our team is even deeper than last year. If everybody just has a good year, we’ll be very, very tough.”

3. St. Louis Cardinals--The Cardinals’ royal flop last season was not totally unexpected. After winning the World Series in 1982, they slumped to fourth the next season. What did them in last season were injuries and the psychological trauma stemming from the 1985 World Series loss to the Kansas City Royals.

Yet, there is reason to believe that the Cardinals can challenge the Mets and Phillies.

Jack Clark, who missed all but 65 games last season with a torn ligament in his right thumb, is back. So is Willie McGee, who had off-season knee surgery and still isn’t back to the form that enabled him to be the league’s MVP in 1985. Vince Coleman, who had a .237 average but had 107 stolen bases; Tommy Herr, .252, and Terry Pendleton, .239, weren’t injured, but they played as if they were.

St. Louis may have solved its catching problem last week, acquiring Tony Pena from the Pittsburgh Pirates for Andy Van Slyke.

If the Cardinals can improve on their .236 team batting average and score more than 3.7 runs a game, they will cause problems for the rest of the league. They have the league’s best defense, led by Ozzie Smith, and good pitching, led by starters John Tudor and Danny Cox and reliever Todd Worrell.

Still, Cardinal Manager Whitey Herzog is a little skeptical.

“We’ve got four guys coming off operations, plus the ace of our pitching staff (Tudor) missed his last five turns because of a stiff shoulder,” Herzog said. “All the guys I’m talking about are key players.”

4. Chicago Cubs--The Cubs were the first team to plunge into the ice-cold free-agent pool this spring. They signed Andre Dawson, the sore-kneed outfielder who rejected an offer from the Expos for twice as much as the $650,000 he signed for.

Dawson will help the Cubs’ offense, but perhaps what the club should have done was sign a starting pitcher--or several of them.

Chicago had the highest-paid and least-productive starting rotation in the majors. Its members included Rick Sutcliffe, Steve Trout, Dennis Eckersley and Scott Sanderson. But Eckersley has been traded to the Oakland A’s and Sanderson is on the disabled list, meaning that youngsters Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer will get a chance to start.

Other than 1981, the strike year, the Cubs did not have a 10-game winner for the first time in their history, and that includes some awfully bad teams.

Will new pitching coach Herm Starrette make a difference? Probably not, even though Starrette, with the blessing of Manager Gene Michael, has instructed his pitchers to throw inside more. That should endear the Cubs to the rest of the league.

Offensively, the Cubs will score runs, with a lineup that includes Dawson, Leon Durham, Ryne Sandberg, Keith Moreland and Jody Davis.

5. Montreal Expos--Sit back and watch a team self-destruct. The Expos, through a series of curious front-office moves, have cut loose their three best players and received little--or nothing--in return.

They did not sign Dawson, nor fellow free agent Tim Raines. And, most curious of all, they traded relief ace Jeff Reardon to the Minnesota Twins for starting pitcher Neal Heaton and others.

Reardon had 76 saves the last two seasons and was coveted by many teams around the league, including the Dodgers. So, it was likely they could have received more than Heaton, who’ll anchor a mediocre starting rotation that also includes Floyd Youmans and Jay Tibbs. Len Barker was given a tryout, but he was released early last week.

It seems likely that Raines will re-sign with the Expos on May 1, the date when free agents are allowed to negotiate again with their former teams. Until then, though, the Expos will miss Raines’ offense.

Mitch Webster, a former Dodger farmhand, returns in center field, with rookie Alonzo Powell in left and Herm Winningham in right. The Expos have run production in the infield, with first baseman Andres Galarraga, shortstop Hubie Brooks and third baseman Tim Wallach.

“We’re going to show up, contrary to what you’ve heard,” Murray Cook, the Expos’ general manager, said.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates--This team has some good players, and those players might be able to raise the Pirates out of the East cellar for the first time in three seasons.

But don’t count on it.

Potential is the buzz word around Pittsburgh, which translates into lots of losses until those players develop. Center fielder Barry Bonds was productive in his rookie season with 16 home runs, 48 RBIs and 36 stolen bases. The Pirates also have second baseman Johnny Ray and Van Slyke, newly arrived from St. Louis.

Gone to the New York Yankees is Rick Rhoden, the Pirates’ best pitcher. The Pirates, who knew if they held onto Rhoden they would lose him to free agency after this season, did not receive equal worth in the trade. Instead, they were given more potential in starting pitcher Doug Drabek and reliever Brian Fisher.

Without Rhoden, Pittsburgh will have to rely on Rick Reuschel and Bob Kipper.

But the best change by far for the Pirates is replacing those old-time caps with ones resembling those worn by real baseball teams, which is what the Pirates hope to become this season.