TIME WILL HAVE TO TELL : Scout Says This NBA Draft Crop Can’t Be Judged for 3 Seasons

Marty Blake, who runs the NBA’s scouting combine, says it will be 1990 before he’ll be able to assess the 1987 draft, which will be held Monday.

Among other things, that is when this year’s top prospect, David Robinson of Navy, is scheduled to enter the league.

But Blake isn’t referring to the Navy center specifically when offering his assessment of the 150 or so players who will be selected in the 1987 draft scheduled Monday in New York. Two to three years is the amount of time he says it takes to judge any given pool of basketball talent.

“Everybody’s got what I call the ‘Instant Gratification Syndrome’--we want a guy to come in and be an instant hero,” says Blake.

Robinson, the pride of the Navy and the prize of the San Antonio Spurs in this year’s lottery jackpot, is such a player. But he has a two-year commitment with the military before he can seek gainful employment in the NBA.

Barring a major trade, San Antonio will be selling Robinson on the virtues of Texas and tacos after naming him the No. 1 pick overall. However, his status with the Spurs after his two-year hitch will have to be settled by a judge or an arbitrator.

The Spurs maintain that a little-used provision in the league’s by-laws predates the collective bargaining agreement (which ended after the season and presently is the object of negotiations between the owners and players) and allows a team to retain the rights to a player serving a military commitment until his duty is over.

The union claims Robinson should be treated like all other players and enter the draft again in 1988 if he is not signed by the Spurs. In either case, if he remains unsigned, he would become a free agent after two years.

And what comes after the 7-foot-1 center who set 33 records while playing for the Midshipmen? There is little more in the way of size, but plenty out there to look over.

“I think there are a lot of outstanding prospects,” says Phoenix Sun General Manager Jerry Colangelo, whose team will pick second. “Last year the top two rookies in the league were at four and eight. Chuck Person (of Indiana) and Ron Harper (of Cleveland). Look at it this way, if David Robinson is out of the league for the next two years, our guy at No. 2 is conceivably going to be the most talked about rookie in the league.”

That player is most likely to be 6-foot-5 Dennis Hopson of Ohio State. The Suns have been beset by a drug scandal which returned Walter Davis to a drug rehabilitation center for a second time. Hopson averaged 29 points a game and could provide some offense spark for the Suns.

Unlike last year, in which Boston and Philadelphia participated in the lottery, the league’s less fortunate teams will be picking early. And in some cases often.

The Los Angeles Clippers, the worst team in the league last year, have the fourth, 13th and 19th picks in the first round. Last year they didn’t pick until the third round. Also picking twice in the first round will be the Spurs (23rd), Seattle (fifth and ninth) and Chicago (eighth and tenth).

One exception is the New York Knicks who traded the rights to their lottery pick to Seattle for guard Gerald Henderson. The other exception also involves New York which traded Darrell Walker to Denver for its No. 1 pick (eighth overall) and then swapped that to Chicago for Jawann Oldham.

Some of the powerhouses in the league are sitting out the first round. The NBA Champion Lakers, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks and Nuggets all traded away their first-round picks.

“We want size, but the best players are not 7-foot types,” said Elgin Baylor, the Clippers’ executive vice president of basketball operations. “The good players are small forwards and guards. We’ll look for someone who will have the biggest impact.”

The top forward prospects are Derrick McKey of Alabama, Armon Gilliam of Nevada Las Vegas, Reggie Williams of Georgetown, Horace Grant of Clemson, Scottie Pippen of Central Arkansas and Tellis Frank of Western Kentucky.

At guard there is Kenny Smith of North Carolina, Mark Jackson of St. John’s, Kevin Johnson of California and Tony White of Tennessee.

At center, after Robinson, 6-11 Olden Polynice, who played last year in Italy, should go high as should 7-foot Chris Welp of Washington.

Despite the lack of size, a trend that may continue for many years to come says Blake, who has scouted down to the junior high school level looking for the next great center, there are plenty of players coming out of college capable of performing in the NBA.

“Overall, you have to look back at the draft in two or three years to get a real understanding of just how good it really is,” said Blake. “I think you’ll see an awful lot of these players in the league.”