NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE OUTLOOK

MIDWEST DIVISION HOUSTON ROCKETS

A baseball analogy may be in order here: Just as the Dodger bullpen never recovered from Steve Howe’s drug habit, the Rockets may take years to put together a backcourt after losing Lewis Lloyd and Mitchell Wiggins last season because of drug violations. A $30-million, 12-year contract to Akeem Olajuwon and a $12-million, six-year contract to Ralph Sampson puts the (salary) cap on Rocket maneuvers to obtain first-rate backcourt help.

Bill Fitch hopes to fill the vacuum this season with Lester (the Molester) Conner, who sat out last season in a contract dispute with Golden State, and World B. Free, still spinning despite having been waived by the Philadelphia 76ers last March after shooting a woeful 31.7% in 20 games.

Any possible draft help was lost when the Rockets surrendered a No. 1 pick to the Clippers for Cedric Maxwell. Injuries that will sideline backup forward Jim Petersen and big guard Robert Reid at the start of the season won’t help, either

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Mark Aguirre looks great after slimming down last summer, while Dick Motta is casting a line in Fish Haven, Ida., having been succeeded by John MacLeod.

The backcourt combination of Derek Harper and Rolando Blackman is second only to the Lakers’ in the conference, and the Mavericks added depth in rookies Jim Farmer and Steve Alford. James Donaldson may be limited, but the 7-foot 2-inch center was fourth in the league in rebounding, got the ball out well on the outlet pass and was missed when a “stress reaction” in his leg sidelined him during the Seattle playoff series.

The Mavericks have one of the better benches in the league with forwards Detlef Schrempf, Sam Perkins and Roy Tarpley--assuming he gets his life in order in a drug rehabilitation program.

UTAH JAZZ

They’re a lock to run up the heftiest room-service bills in the league with their Waist Line frontcourt--280-pound Mel Turpin, 281-pound Darryl Dawkins, 7-4 Mark Eaton and 260-pound Karl Malone. Last season’s celebrated Adrian Dantley-for-Kelly Tripucka trade was a bust for the Jazz, as Tripucka’s production declined with his playing time. He’s eminently expendable.

Eaton was the league’s top shot-blocker but shot a career-low 40% last season. Sixth-man Darrell Griffith, who provides instant offense, may move into a starting role, with Rickey Green and John Stockton sharing point guard duties again. Thurl Bailey, 6-11, is one of the best big men in the league off the bench.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

It’s already a standard line around the NBA: The Kings have the best big men in the league, but unfortunately, Bill Russell and Willis Reed will be coaching, not playing. Joe Kleine and LaSalle Thompson won’t remind anyone of the Hall of Famers teaching them.

Top draft choice Kenny Smith of North Carolina should blossom into a top point guard, freeing Reggie Theus to concentrate on scoring instead of playmaking. Derek Smith should contribute, but he has missed an average of 31 games in each of the last four seasons and also was at odds with Theus.

The Kings, last in the league in overall defense, should be better. Russell will activate himself before allowing a repeat of the 40-4 first-quarter wipeout the Kings had against the Lakers last season.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

This team should be sponsored by Winchell’s--no center. Coach Bob Weiss, a magician without portfolio in his first season, will try to make do with ex-Lakers Petur Gudmundsson and Frank Brickowski, as well as a one-time Clipper, Kurt Nimphius.

And imagine what last weekend’s table knife incident--in which Walter Berry picked up said utensil in an argument with teammate Alvin Robertson--did for owner Angelo Drossos’ campaign to sign top draft choice David Robinson. Robinson, who has a two-year Navy hitch, may decide to let the Spurs sink or swim on their own. If so, this team may bottom out for years.

PACIFIC DIVISION LAKERS

Chicago Bulls Coach Doug Collins, asked to assess the Lakers’ chances, was barely able to suppress a yawn.

“Sixty wins,” he said. “Probable Western Conference champions. And they’ll probably be playing Boston, Atlanta or Detroit for the title.”

Enough said.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

There were lots of snickers when Seattle unloaded long-time favorite Jack Sikma to Milwaukee for Alton Lister in a swap of centers. But all Lister did was match Sikma in rebounding, average a career-high 11.6 points a game and finish fifth in the league in shot blocks with an average of 2.4. That earned Lister an offer sheet from Phoenix, which Seattle had to match to keep him. Also, the SuperSonics got two No. 1 draft choices out of the deal with Milwaukee.

Lister is a liability defensively and too limited offensively to be considered among the league’s elite big men, but with draftee Olden Polynice backing him up, Seattle is solid in the middle. The SuperSonics also are excited about first-round pick Derrick McKey, the forward from Alabama who came out as an undergraduate in the draft.

Nate McMillan, a second-round draft choice last season, emerged as a promising point guard. Maurice Lucas, former Laker enforcer who shot just 39% in the playoffs, is unsigned and destined for points elsewhere. Guard Sam Vincent, added from the Celtics, should fit right into the Seattle running game.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

Like a twig snapping in the forest, 7-foot Sam Bowie’s leg gave way once again this fall for the fourth time in six years, and with it went any chance of the Trail Blazers mounting a serious challenge to Laker supremacy. Portland’s absence of muscle up front is compounded by the loss of forward Kenny Carr, forced to quit because of bad knees.

Mike Schuler, the NBA’s Coach of the Year in his first season, will be hard-pressed to match last season’s 49-33 record, although the league’s highest-scoring team--the Trail Blazers averaged 117.9 points a game--will continue to rack them up with Kiki Vandeweghe, the league’s best three-point shooter.

There were three players in the league who averaged more than 21 points, 6 assists and 6 rebounds: Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Clyde Drexler of the Trail Blazers.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

The league’s most intriguing comeback story is unfolding here, where former Laker forward Kermit Washington, out of basketball for five years, is back on the court at 36. Washington may give some much-needed help to Larry Smith, voted the team’s MVP after averaging 13.7 rebounds in the playoffs.

No one will again overlook Sleepy Floyd after his 51-point explosion--including a record-setting 29 in the fourth quarter--against the Lakers last spring. Coach George Karl has said, however, that he intends to give Chris Mullin more ballhandling duties to ease the load on Floyd.

High-scoring Purvis Short may not get as much playing time as he likes, since the Warriors were 27-19 in games Short missed with a knee injury.

The team’s No. 1 pick is Tellis Frank . . . or is it Frank Tellis?

PHOENIX SUNS

This is a team torn apart by a drug scandal and tragedy--the death of center Nick Vanos in a plane crash last summer. Five players are gone from last season, and first-year coach John Wetzel faces a massive rebuilding job, even with Walter Davis, a two-time loser under the NBA’s drug program, back.

Top draft choice Armon Gilliam, the banger from Nevada Las Vegas, has to come through big for the Suns to advance. They’ve traded their No. 1 picks from the last two seasons, Ed Pinckney and William Bedford.

CLIPPERS

At least new Coach Gene Shue has experience at picking up the pieces. He coached in Philadelphia the season after the 76ers went 9-73, the worst record in league history.

Shue also is the Clippers’ first coach with NBA head-coaching experience since . . . Gene Shue, in his first go-sound with the Clippers, from 1978 to 1980. Paul Silas, Jim Lynam and Don Chaney all were first-year coaches when they assumed command.

Shue and the Clippers were dealt a cruel blow Wednesday when guard Norman Nixon was lost for the season, again, with a torn Achilles’ tendon.

CONFERENCE AT A GLANCE

New Coaches: John MacLeod, Dallas; Gene Shue, Clippers; John Wetzel, Phoenix; Bill Russell, Sacramento.

New Faces: Armon Gilliam, Phoenix; Reggie Williams, Ken Norman and Joe Wolf, Clippers; Olden Polynice and Derrick McKey, Seattle; Kenny Smith, Sacramento.

Development to Watch: Who among Dallas, Seattle or Houston will offer more than token resistance to the Lakers’ bid for consecutive titles?