Grammy Forecast: U2 Faces Stiff Competition

Can you picture Bono in a tux?

Better get used to the idea: U2 is likely to be the big winner at the 30th annual Grammy Awards, which will be presented March 2 at Radio City Music Hall in New York.

This year’s Grammy nominations won’t be announced until Thursday, but they’re usually not too hard to forecast. You just have to bear in mind that the Grammy voters--mostly artists, producers, songwriters and musicians--tend to favor big hits that fall right in the pop mainstream.

And 1987 was unquestionably the year that U2--the socially conscious Irish rock band--was embraced by the pop mainstream. The group’s fifth album, “The Joshua Tree,” sold more than 4 million copies in this country, and generated back-to-back No. 1 singles.

Such current albums as George Michael’s “Faith” and Sting’s “ . . . Nothing Like the Sun” were released after the close of this year’s eligibility period--Oct. 1, 1986, through Sept. 30, 1987. Bon Jovi’s “Slippery When Wet,” 1987’s best-selling album, was released prior to the start of the period. The band’s smash single, “Livin’ on a Prayer,” is eligible in the Record of the Year race, but isn’t expected to make the final five.

Album of the Year While singer Bono Hewson and his mates in U2 are the clear favorites to win the Grammy for album of the year, they face stiff competition. Three superstars whose last LPs were nominated in this category are likely to return to the finals: Michael Jackson, whose “Thriller” swept the awards four years ago, Bruce Springsteen, whose “Born in the U.S.A.” was a finalist three years ago, and Whitney Houston, whose debut album was nominated two years ago.

Springsteen, in fact, released two albums in the eligibility period: the five-record boxed set, “Live/1975-85,” and the studio album, “Tunnel of Love.” Grammy rules, however, allow only one entry per artist in each category. “Tunnel” is the betting favorite because it’s newer--and consists of new material.

Those four albums are easy choices, but calling the fifth nominee is tough. The “La Bamba” sound track--which hit No. 1 last fall in between blockbuster albums by Houston and Jackson--has a razor-thin edge over a crowded field that includes Dolly Parton, Linda Ronstadt and Emmylou Harris’ “Trio,” Randy Travis’ “Always & Forever,” the “Dirty Dancing” sound track, Prince’s “Sign ‘O’ the Times,” Fleetwood Mac’s “Tango in the Night” and John Cougar Mellencamp’s “The Lonesome Jubilee.”

Record of the Year U2 is also a sure thing to be nominated for record of the year. The only question is which of its two No. 1 hits will make the finals: the romantic but vaguely menacing “With or Without You” or the yearning “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For.”

“With or Without You” was the band’s breakthrough single, which would seem to give it an edge. But “I Still Haven’t Found” was a more distinctive record, with a more universal theme. (Besides, it’s the first U2 entry the voters will encounter on the alphabetical listing of 221 eligible singles mailed out by the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences. Don’t laugh: That may help explain why Michael Jackson’s “Beat It” was nominated four years ago instead of “Billie Jean.”)

U2’s competition is expected to include Los Lobos’ title song from “La Bamba,” Suzanne Vega’s folk-oriented “Luka,” and two mass-appeal pop/soul/dance hits: Houston’s “I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Who Loves Me)” and Jackson’s “Bad.”

Likely runners-up include Richard Marx’s “Don’t Mean Nothing,” Kenny G’s “Songbird,” Bill Medley and Jennifer Warnes’ “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life,” George Michael’s “I Want Your Sex,” Bruce Springsteen’s “Brilliant Disguise,” Aretha Franklin and George Michael’s “I Knew You Were Waiting (For Me),” Jody Watley’s “Looking for a New Love” and Sting’s “We’ll Be Together.”

Best New Artist

Marx, who burst on the pop scene last year with a gold album and back-to-back Top 5 singles, was considered the front-runner to win the Grammy for Best New Artist--but he was ruled ineligible because he sang a song on the 1986 “Nothing in Common” sound track. (The ruling recalls Whitney Houston’s disqualification from the same category two years ago for having been featured on two duets.)

With Marx out of the running, the favorite in the new artist category is Jody Watley, a former member of Shalamar. (Watley’s long association with that successful pop/R&B; trio doesn’t disqualify her, according to academy officials, because she wasn’t billed by name .) Other likely nominees: teen sensations Tiffany and Debbie Gibson and British pop groups Swing Out Sister and Cutting Crew. Likely runners-up: Regina Belle, Breakfast Club, Terence Trent D’Arby, T’Pau and Wendy & Lisa.

Performance Categories

Nominations in the key performance categories can be for albums, singles or individual songs. The entries are listed in order of their likelihood of being nominated.

Best Pop Vocal Performance, Male: Jackson’s “Bad,” Michael’s “I Want Your Sex,” Springsteen’s “Brilliant Disguise,” Prince’s “Sign ‘O’ the Times,” Sting’s “We’ll Be Together.”

Pop Female: Houston’s “Whitney,” Vega’s “Luka,” Carly Simon’s “Coming Around Again,” Belinda Carlisle’s “Heaven Is a Place on Earth,” Tiffany’s “I Think We’re Alone Now.”

Pop Group: Los Lobos’ “La Bamba,” Medley and Warnes’ “(I’ve Had) the Time of My Life,” Linda Ronstadt and James Ingram’s “Somewhere Out There,” Michael Jackson and Seidah Garrett’s “I Just Can’t Stop Loving You,” Lisa Lisa & Cult Jam’s “Lost in Emotion.”

Rock Male/Female: Springsteen’s “Tunnel of Love,” Mellencamp’s “The Lonesome Jubilee,” Billy Idol’s “Mony Mony,” Marx’s “Don’t Mean Nothing,” Bob Seger’s “Shakedown.”

(The female rock category was eliminated this year due to a shortage of entries. The academy requires 10 entries to field a category. As a result, female and male rockers are competing together--and no females are expected to make the finals.)

Rock Group: U2’s “The Joshua Tree,” Heart’s “Bad Animals,” Pink Floyd’s “A Momentary Lapse of Reason,” the Grateful Dead’s “In the Dark,” R.E.M.’s “Document.”

R&B; Male: Jackson’s “The Way You Make Me Feel,” Stevie Wonder’s “Skeletons,” L. L. Cool J’s “Bigger and Deffer,” Smokey Robinson’s “One Heartbeat,” Freddie Jackson’s “Just Like the First Time.”

R&B; Female: “Jody Watley,” Natalie Cole’s “Everlasting,” Stephanie Mills’ “If I Were Your Woman,” Aretha Franklin’s “Aretha,” Houston’s “For the Love of You.”

R&B; Group: Franklin and Michael’s “I Knew You Were Waiting (For Me),” Prince and Sheena Easton’s “U Got the Look,” Earth, Wind & Fire’s “System of Survival,” Levert’s “Casanova,” Club Nouveau’s “Lean on Me.”

Pop seer Grein last year correctly predicted all five Best Album nominees, four of the five Best Record finalists and averaged three correct picks in the performance categories.