The Times Poll : Farm Vote Puts Dole, Gephardt Ahead in Iowa

Propelled by the farm vote in a state unhappy with President Reagan, Sen. Bob Dole has widened his lead over Republican rivals while Rep. Richard A. Gephardt has vaulted into strong Democratic contention as the Iowa caucuses near, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

Both Dole of Kansas and Gephardt of Missouri, representing neighboring states but different political ideologies, are attracting Iowans to their presidential candidacies with down-home, middle-America, populist themes, the survey indicated.

Vice President George Bush, who scored a dramatic upset over Ronald Reagan in the 1980 Iowa caucuses, seems in this campaign to have suffered politically in the state from his seven years as the President’s loyal understudy.

Dole led Bush in the Times poll by 13 points, 41% to 28%. Far back were former television evangelist Pat Robertson, 10%; New York Rep. Jack Kemp, 9%; former Delaware Gov. Pierre S. (Pete) du Pont IV, 6%, and former Secretary of State Alexander M. Haig Jr., 1%. Undecided amounted to 5%.

By contrast, the Democratic field was tightly bunched. The hard-charging Gephardt, who has made a dramatic comeback from the bottom of the pack in recent weeks, was preferred by 23% of those surveyed. Running virtually neck-and-neck with Gephardt was Illinois Sen. Paul Simon at 21%, followed by Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis, 15%; former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, 12%; former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt, 11%; the Rev. Jesse Jackson, 8%, and Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., 1%. Undecided totaled 9%.

Hart, who angrily abandoned his front-running campaign amid a sex scandal last May, now is slipping in popularity after having re-entered the race in December and being immediately thrust to the head of several polls on the strength of wide name recognition. A mid-December Iowa poll by the Des Moines Register, for example, had Hart with an 11-point lead, at 29%. And Gephardt was a distant fifth, at 6%.

Also in mid-December, Dole and Bush were in a tight race, according to the Register’s poll, with the Kansas senator holding only a four-point lead, 37% to 33%.

1,129 Voters Interviewed

This is the first time that the Los Angeles Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, has conducted a substantive survey of Iowa during the 1988 campaign. A random sample of 5,176 Iowa adults was telephoned for five days ending Wednesday night. Lengthy interviews were conducted with 1,129 voters regarded as likely to attend the Feb. 8 precinct caucuses, generally considered to be the first major contests in the races for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominations.

In all, 619 Democrats and 510 Republicans were interviewed. The margins of error for all those interviewed is 4%. For just Democrats or Republicans, it is 5%.

More often than not, agriculture plays a potentially decisive role in Iowa politics, and the issue clearly is having an impact on the presidential contests. Although only roughly 10% of Iowans actually work the land, 70% hold jobs linked in some way to agriculture.

The depressed land values, bankruptcies and foreclosures that plagued America’s heartland for the first half of this decade now have been checked, in some significant degree because of a 1985 farm bill pushed by Dole. “My father ran a cream and egg station, later a grain elevator--wore his overalls to work every day for 42 years and was proud of it,” the senator constantly reminds Iowans.

Farm Crisis Over

Iowa’s economy is booming and the “farm crisis” is over, according to most experts. “Tell that to an Iowa farmer,” Gephardt likes to tell farmers as he stumps the state and promotes a landmark agriculture bill he has co-written.

The Times poll showed that the emphasis Dole and Gephardt have placed on agriculture in their campaigns is paying off in Iowa. When asked which candidate “would do the best job of handling farm problems,” 27% of those surveyed chose Dole and 20% named Gephardt. The only other candidate to reach double digits was Simon, from neighboring Illinois, at 11%.

Among Republicans, Dole was chosen as the farmers’ friend by 4 to 1 over Bush. Democrats picked Gephardt by nearly 2 to 1 over Simon.

Dole calls his message “conservative populism” or “conservatism that works.” Gephardt’s message is more liberal, but also populist, as he rails against “the Establishment” and Reagan Administration trade policies.

As a measure of how the populist message sells in Iowa, Dole and Gephardt both recorded proportionately higher support among the four voters in 10 who “do not have much confidence” in the executive branch of the federal government.

Simon Supporters

On the other hand, Simon held a slight lead among Democrats who have a lot of confidence in the federal government’s ability to resolve the nation’s problems--one indication that the bow-tied senator has a potential to attract the type of traditional, pro-government voters who once rallied around the late Hubert H. Humphrey. Another indication is that Simon is a slight favorite among Democratic liberals.

As for Hart, more Democrats than not say they would be disinclined to vote for him against a Republican candidate in November. And, among those expressing support for Hart, 82% said they plan to stand up for him on Feb. 8 “just for the heck of it,” indicating perhaps a lack of strong commitment.

The Republican contest obviously is being influenced by Reagan’s unpopularity in Iowa. A majority of voters, 55%, disapproves of how Reagan “is handling his job as President.” Only 41% approve. By contrast, a nationwide Times poll last month immediately after his summit meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev found Reagan to have a highly favorable job rating across the country, 60% to 31%.

Economy Seen as Improving

In the farm state of Iowa, voters particularly disapprove of how Reagan “is handling the nation’s economy,” 64% to 31%. (However, by a ratio of 3 1/2 to 1, people feel Iowa’s economy is getting better rather than worse.)

One illustration of how Bush’s association with Reagan has hurt him in Iowa is that people of both parties, by 2 to 1, said they would not be inclined to vote for the vice president if he were the GOP nominee in November. In contrast, people by nearly 5 to 3 said they would be inclined to vote for Dole.

Another illustration is that, among Republicans who approve of Reagan’s job performance--and three-fourths do--Dole is favored by only four points over Bush. But Dole is a 34-point favorite among Republicans who are irked by the President.

Bush is also being hurt by accusations, spread widely by GOP rivals, that his role in the Iran-Contra scandal was more prominent than he has acknowledged. Only a quarter of Iowa’s Republicans thinks Bush “is telling the whole truth.” Another quarter thinks “he is not telling the truth.” A third theorizes that he is telling some truth, but not all of it. At any rate, Republicans who think Bush is lying favor Dole by 40 points.

Deeply Religious Voters

Robertson’s support, according to this survey, is exclusively among deeply religious Christians who regularly tune in to television evangelists and believe religion should have more influence on politics. But, even among these Republicans, 85% support another GOP contender--indicating that there is not a large hidden vote in Iowa for Robertson.

When Iowans were asked to pick a phrase that “best describes” the candidate they are supporting, the first choice of Dole’s partisans was “leadership.” Bush’s supporters thought overwhelmingly of “experience.”

On the Democratic side, Gephardt’s faithful chose “He cares about people like me.” For Simon, it was “He stands up for his convictions.” And for Dukakis, “leadership.”