LAX of 2000: Study Foresees Congestion in Air, on Ground

Traffic congestion at Los Angeles International Airport, both in the air and on the ground, could grow tremendously by the year 2000 unless outlying airports are either expanded or agree to accept more flights, an environmental study of LAX’s future predicted Tuesday.

The study said the number of passengers served at the giant facility could climb to 65 million a year by 2000, 25 million passengers above a planning threshold airport officials adopted in 1978. The airport’s 40-million passenger ceiling was eclipsed early last year when 44.8 million passengers were served, an 8.3% increase over 1986.

Prepared by the city’s Airport Department, the draft environmental report said LAX’s projected growth would usher in more smog, possible gridlock and could lead to more airline accidents. By the year 2000, according to the study, LAX could be handling 175,663 passengers in and out every day.

$17-Billion Boon

The growth would also generate a $17-billion economic boon to the airport area, the study concluded.

The increase in air traffic probably would not mean more jet noise, however, as the major airlines are shifting to quieter aircraft, the study said.

If the projected growth is allowed to occur, the study says such methods as establishing nighttime curfews for older--and noisier--jets and increasing the number of landings from over the ocean might be adopted to reduce the impact. The expected ground traffic increase, meanwhile, could be reduced by establishing off-peak hour schedules, raising airport parking fees and encouraging better use of existing shuttle services.

Although the study contains suggested fixes, airport officials stressed Tuesday that they have not yet settled on the best way to handle the projected growth.

Clifton A. Moore, executive director of the Department of Airports, said the report attempts to determine what growth will mean to the airport and nearby communities.

“It’s an honest effort to deal with some highly controversial public issues,” Moore said. “It’s a balancing of equities.”

Expected to become the basis for a major public review of airport operations over the next several months, the study is also likely to serve as a lightning rod for the city’s growing slow-growth movement. City officials agree that the only way to legally justify limiting growth at the nation’s third-largest airport is to show that unlimited growth would mean significant harm to the surrounding area.

Reduced Air Traffic

Councilwoman Ruth Galanter, who represents the airport area and campaigned last year on a slow-growth platform, said she wants some action on reducing LAX air traffic.

“I would like to see some acceleration of plans to shift that traffic elsewhere,” Galanter said in an interview. “I know it takes a long time to build an airport and an airport is one of the very hardest things to find a new place for because it’s so big.

“But I think the airport and the federal government need to be encouraged to assist us in moving the growth in traffic away from LAX.”

Among the suggested solutions in the airport study are expanding Ontario International Airport and building a new airport in Palmdale.

The Ontario airport, however, has its own growth problems. Last year it handled 4.5 million passengers and is expected to handle 12 million by the year 2000--the maximum number presently allowed there under state air quality restrictions.

Moreover, it would take at least five years to build Palmdale Regional Airport. Such a facility has been on the drawing boards for 20 years and awaits approval of an environmental study by the federal government.

While Galanter said her staff is still studying the 1 1/2-inch thick LAX study, the growth forecast has already generated suspicion that airport officials want to use it as a springboard for a massive expansion.

Roy Hefner, a Westchester resident who serves on two airport citizen advisory committees, was critical of the draft report. “The whole intent behind it is to give them carte blanche to move forward with the airport,” Hefner said.

Handles 75% of Area Traffic

LAX handles about 75% of the region’s air traffic, largely because many outlying airports have curbed air traffic as a weapon against jet noise. Other factors in the growth spurt include the deregulation of the airline industry a decade ago, which made commercial carriers more competitive.

The airport study suggests four possible alternatives to the projected growth at LAX:

- “The Project,” as this alternative is dubbed, would allow a gradual increase in passengers using LAX from the current 40 million a year to 65 million by the year 2000.

That plan would not require any major airport expansion as officials feel that current facilities can handle 65 million passengers.

- “No Project” is the second option and would return airport operations to the 40-million passenger level first adopted in 1978, which served as the basis for a $700-million expansion of LAX that was completed in 1984.

Largely because of the sheer volume of flights handled at LAX, Moore said, it would be unrealistic to expect LAX to follow in the path of other regional airports and limit the types of aircraft or hours an airline can operate.

- Allowing limited expansion to 50 million passengers per year. This plan would require the expansion of Ontario International and the construction of the Palmdale facility.

- Allowing limited expansion to 50 million passengers, but instead of expanding Ontario and building Palmdale, this alternative would depend on non-city airports such as Burbank, Long Beach and John Wayne in Orange County accepting an increase in new air traffic.

TRAFFIC JAM AT L.A. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Increase of air traffic has been dramatic over the years, especially in volume of passengers, and will continue into the year 2000 and beyond unless growth is checked.

1977 1982 1987 2000 (est.) Daily Landings & Takeoffs Commercial Airlines 988 849 1,173 n/a Commuter Airlines 195 294 469 n/a Military 10 9 13 n/a Private Aircraft 180 160 172 n/a TOTAL 1,373 1,312 1,827 1,896 Daily Passengers Domestic 68,656 75,744 102,489 150,753 International 9,020 12,977 20,451 24,910 TOTAL 77,676 88,721 122,940 175,663 Daily Air Cargo (tons) Mail 285 379 430 n/a Freight 1,940 1,971 2,749 n/a TOTAL 2,225 2,350 3,179 n/a

Source: Los Angeles Department of Airports