The Times Poll : Wide Dukakis Appeal Found in 2 Key States

Massachusetts Yankee Michael S. Dukakis captured the two biggest Southern states on Super Tuesday by appealing across the board to Democratic voters of all ages, incomes, ideologies and education levels, a Los Angeles Times Poll showed.

Another candidate with Yankee roots, Vice President George Bush, swept through the South on the coattails of President Reagan’s continued popularity. In Florida and Texas, for example, roughly 9 out of 10 Republican voters approved of how Reagan is handling his job. And those people voted for Bush over his closest rival by ratios of more than 3 to 1 and 5 to 1, respectively, The Times survey showed.

Latinos Aid Dukakis

Gov. Dukakis’ biggest challenge in the two big Southern states came from the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who won 89% of the black vote in Florida and 79% in Texas. But, in Texas, more Latinos went to the polls than blacks--19% of the voters were Latinos, 12% were blacks. And the Latinos gave a substantial boost to Dukakis, who had campaigned among them speaking fluent Spanish. They voted for Dukakis over Jackson by 2 1/2 to 1.

However, as he has in previous primaries this year, Jackson improved his showing among white voters compared to how he fared in his first presidential campaign four years ago. On Tuesday in Texas, for instance, Jackson was supported by 8% of the whites, compared to only 4% in 1984. In Florida, he got 7% of the white vote, compared to a mere 1% in 1984.

Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr. made a late surge during the final week of the campaign, propelled in large part by the loyalty of Southern voters to one of their own.

In four states--Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi and North Carolina--the reason most often cited for backing Gore was that “he’s from the South and he understands our problems.”

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, interviewed 11,146 voters as they left voting precincts in six Southern and Border states: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. Those states had 44% of the Democratic delegates and 51% of the Republican delegates that were up for grabs on Super Tuesday. In all, 6,744 Democrats and 4,402 Republicans were interviewed.

Dukakis went into the Super Tuesday campaign with the most money of any Democrat to spend on television, plus momentum generated by his big New Hampshire primary victory three weeks earlier. And he wound up attracting all types of voters in Florida and Texas, the survey showed.

In both states, Dukakis ran basically even with Jackson among people under age 40 and beat him among voters older than that. In fact, among Florida pensioners, Dukakis was a 3 to 1 favorite over his closest rival, Gore.

In Florida, Dukakis edged out Jackson among voters earning less than $20,000 a year, but beat him by nearly 2 to 1 among middle-income people and nearly 3 to 1 among those making more than $40,000. In Texas also, Dukakis beat Jackson among all income groups, but less dramatically.

Strong Liberal Support

In Florida, Dukakis defeated Jackson 2 to 1 among Democratic liberals, trounced Missouri Rep. Richard A. Gephardt by 3 to 1 among centrists and edged out Gore with conservatives.

In Texas, Dukakis outran Jackson among liberals and soundly beat Gore and Gephardt among centrists. But Gore had a slight edge over Dukakis among conservatives.

By education level, Dukakis was the big favorite in Florida of all groups from high school dropouts to college graduate students. In Texas, Dukakis ran even with Gore among high school dropouts but beat him by a good margin among people who had gone to college.

The reason most often cited by Dukakis voters for supporting him, in both Florida and Texas, was that “he has strong qualities of leadership.” Next, the governor’s supporters felt that “he cares about people like me” and “he has strong convictions.”

The strategic decision of Dukakis and Gore to run television commercials attacking Gephardt seems to have paid off, because the negative campaigning apparently planted doubts about the Missouri congressman in states where he was not well known.

Assailed on Tax Cut Stand

Gephardt was accused of “flip-flopping” on issues and was assailed for supporting Reagan’s 1981 tax cut bill, advocating an oil import fee and pushing a “protectionist” trade policy.

As a result, voters took to the polls a relatively poor impression of Gephardt, The Times survey found.

In no state did more than roughly a third of those interviewed voice a favorable impression of Gephardt. Voters generally were divided about equally among those who held a favorable impression, those who had an unfavorable impression and those with no opinion at all.

By contrast, 6 in 10 of Florida’s Democratic voters reported being favorably impressed with Dukakis, with only 2 in 10 expressing an unfavorable opinion. The voters’ impression of Dukakis fell off elsewhere, but a majority held a favorable view of him in Texas, North Carolina and Kentucky.

Dukakis was an enigma, however, in Mississippi, where more than 4 in 10 had no opinion of him and the rest were divided between favorable and unfavorable.

Favorable View of Gore

Gore was viewed highly favorably in Kentucky and by a majority of voters in North Carolina, Georgia and Mississippi. But in Florida people knew less about the Tennessee senator.

In the Republican race, the survey illustrated the fallacy of Dole’s strategy of using expensive television commercials to attack Bush’s role in the Iran-Contra scandal. Bush dismissed Iran-Contra as an “inside the Beltway issue”--important only to Washington insiders--and Southern Republicans apparently agreed. They regarded it as among the least important issues in deciding whom to vote for. In no state did more than 6% of the voters consider it among “the most important.”

Former religious broadcaster Pat Robertson was beaten by Bush even among evangelical Protestants in each of the six states.

Only among Pentecostals, or charismatics, did Robertson beat his opponents in Florida and Texas. But those people amounted to only 3% of the vote in Florida and 7% in Texas.

In none of the six surveyed states did a majority of the Republicans agree with the view that “religion has too little influence on American politics.” But this view was shared by 8 of 10 Robertson supporters in each of these states.

Even more so than Dukakis, Bush appealed across the board to his party’s voters. He was favored by self-described liberals, moderates and conservatives in each state.

The vice president even won among the hard-right “very” conservatives, who make up a quarter of the GOP electorate. In fact, he pulled more votes than Robertson and New York Rep. Jack Kemp combined in each of the six states.

Negative Impression

GOP voters as a whole had a negative impression of Robertson in each of the six states, ranging from 3 to 1 unfavorable in Florida to 4 to 3 unfavorable in Mississippi.

Bush, on the other hand, had favorable impression ratings ranging from 6 to 1 in Mississippi to nearly 3 to 1 in North Carolina.

In every state--as in every primary this year--the reason overwhelmingly cited most often by Bush voters for supporting him was his experience.

The single “most important issue” on the minds of voters of both parties was the federal budget deficit.

Last week, the Times Poll found in a pre-election survey of likely voters in 13 Southern and Border states that a black running in a Democratic presidential primary would have a five-point advantage because of his race. Interviews showed that, if a candidate were black, it would help him by 39 points among black voters. But it would hurt him by 14 points among white Democrats.