THE NCAA TOURNAMENT : No Favorites, but Contenders All Over Place

The best thing about the National Collegiate Athletic Assn. basketball tournament may be that it brings the experts down to the fans’ level.

Everyone tries to pick the Final Four, and almost no one has much luck.

Playing a hunch can be as good a method as any, unless you happen to know someone who picked North Carolina State in 1983, or Villanova in 1985. Then you should listen.

There are, of course, built-in advantages--and disadvantages--in the draw.

EAST REGIONAL

Temple’s 29-1 regular-season record, marred only by a 59-58 loss to Nevada Las Vegas in January, earned the Owls the No. 1 seeding in the East Regional, but it didn’t earn them an easy road after their first game, which is against Lehigh Friday at Hartford, Conn.

Temple is well-coached, disciplined, sticks to its deliberate game and has probably the best freshman in the country in Mark Macon. One thing the Owls don’t have is depth, and the loss to UNLV suggests that an athletic, running team--even a moderately good one--may be able to beat Temple in the tournament.

If you believe in jinxes of a sort, it might be worth noting that Temple’s second-round opponent would be either Georgetown or Louisiana State--both teams that have eliminated the Owls in recent years.

Duke (24-6) is the second-seeded team in the East Regional, and will open against Boston University (23-7) today at Chapel Hill, N.C., on the home court of rival North Carolina, just 12 miles from the Duke campus in Durham.

Duke’s man-to-man defense forces a lot of turnovers, and the Blue Devils have a first-rate defender in Billy King, who held David Rivers to single figures earlier this season. Danny Ferry, the son of Washington Bullets General Manager Bob Ferry, is the hub of this team with his outside shooting and sharp passing. One tidbit: Every Atlantic Coast Conference team that has made it to the NCAA championship game in the 1980s--North Carolina in 1981 and 1982, N.C. State in 1983 and Duke in 1986--has started its run by winning the ACC tournament title, which Duke did this year.

Syracuse (25-8), the preseason No. 1 and the NCAA runner-up last season, also opens at Chapel Hill today, against North Carolina A&T;, which is winless in seven straight NCAA appearances.

The Orangemen are one of the most talented teams around, and of their eight losses, only an early-season loss to Arizona was by more than four points. As ever, though, Syracuse is a poor free-throw shooting team, making just 60.2% from the line. It’s a fault that is usually fatal in the tournament.

First-round games to watch: Missouri (19-10) vs. Rhode Island (26-6) today at Chapel Hill, and Georgia Tech (21-9) vs. Iowa State (20-11) Friday at Hartford.

SOUTHEAST REGIONAL

Oklahoma (30-3), the top-seeded team in the Southeast, doesn’t have to beat nearly as many difficult teams as those in the East do. But it’s still no easy road.

The Sooners, a high-scoring, balanced and very talented team led by Stacey King, Mookie Blaylock and Harvey Grant, have been dominant all season, but would appear susceptible to a team that can force more of a half-court game and handle Oklahoma’s press.

Oklahoma opens against Tennessee Chattanooga (20-12) today at Atlanta.

Bradley (26-4) which features national scoring champion Hersey Hawkins and is also a running team, could challenge Oklahoma as soon as the second round, but more likely the Sooners will have to pass tests against Brigham Young (25-5), or, as late as the regional final against Kentucky (25-5) which is seeded second in the Southeast.

Kentucky spent time at No. 1 this season but faltered before coming back to win the Southeastern Conference regular-season and tournament titles. In guards Rex Chapman, and Ed Davender and inside player Winston Bennett, the Wildcats have tremendous talent. The Kentucky tradition never seems to hurt much either.

Games to watch: Brigham Young vs. North Carolina Charlotte (22-8) today at Atlanta; Maryland (17-12) vs. UC Santa Barbara (22-7) Friday at Cincinnati.

MIDWEST REGIONAL

Purdue, in the Midwest, appears to have one of the less difficult roads to the Final Four. Still, in first-round opponent Fairleigh Dickinson the Boilermakers face the school that three years ago led then second-ranked Michigan by 12 points before the Wolverines rallied to win, 59-55, avoiding what would have been one the great upsets in tournament history.

The Boilermakers (27-3) get to open tournament play fairly close to home, in South Bend, Ind. Purdue has both good outside players in senior guards Everette Stephens and Troy Lewis, and good inside players in Todd Mitchell and Melvin McCants. Besides that, Purdue comes in strong, having won 9 of its last 10 in the difficult Big Ten.

Evidence of just how easy a road Purdue may have: Fairleigh Dickinson (23-6), more than a 20-point underdog, has the second-best record to Purdue’s in the subregional beginning today at South Bend.

Kansas State (22-8) is the next-closest team. Mitch Richmond, an outside shooter who averages 22.7 points, carries the team. Kansas State’s first-round game against LaSalle (24-9) is one of the better first-round match-ups. Lionel Simmons, LaSalle’s 6-6 sophomore forward with a 23.4-point average is a player to watch, but LaSalle was 0-6 against NCAA tournament teams during the season.

Pittsburgh (23-6) is the second-seeded team in the Midwest, and was the Big East regular-season champion. Charles Smith, not to be confused with Charles Smith of Georgetown, and Jerome Lane lead this team, which didn’t lose two games in a row all season.

The second-best record in the Midwest belongs to Xavier of Cincinnati (26-3) which plays in the suspect Midwestern Collegiate Conference. The Musketeers are just 1-4 in NCAA play, but are 22-1 since Christmas and have a fine player in Byron Larkin, brother of Cincinnati Reds shortstop Barry Larkin.

Xavier, ranked 18th in the final Associated Press poll, is capable of beating unranked Kansas (21-11) in the first round, playing in Xavier’s hometown, but probably can’t go much farther. Kansas, although led by Danny Manning, has had more than its share of trouble this season--the Jayhawks were once 12-8.

N.C. State (24-7) is another team capable of muddying the draw. The Wolfpack is traditionally a very good tournament team under Jim Valvano--their amazing run to the 1983 title is proof enough of that.

Games to watch: Kansas State vs. LaSalle, today at South Bend; Kansas vs. Xavier, Friday at Cincinnati.

WEST REGIONAL

Arizona (31-2) the top-seeded team in the West, has the distinction of being undefeated against the tournament field. The only teams that beat the Wildcats during the season--New Mexico and Stanford--failed to make the tournament.

The Wildcats, who open against Cornell (17-9) Friday at Pauley Pavilion, shouldn’t have considerable trouble until the regional semifinals--likely against Iowa or UNLV--and perhaps not until a possible regional final game against Michigan, a team Arizona beat earlier this year, or North Carolina.

At Salt Lake City, North Carolina (24-6) opens against North Texas State today. The Tar Heels are coming off a difficult loss to Duke in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament final, the third time they lost to the Blue Devils this season.

The Tar Heels have been one of the NCAA tournament’s most successful teams, making it to the Final Four nine times. But North Carolina has only won two titles--in 1957 and 1982.

This Tar Heel team is one the youngest Dean Smith has had. Only two seniors are on the roster, and neither starts. North Carolina relies on All-American forward J.R. Reid and center Scott Williams, formerly of Hacienda Heights Wilson High School, as well as outside shooter Jeff Lebo.

Michigan (24-7) is led by All-American guard Gary Grant, who averages 22.2 points a game and led the Big Ten this season in assists and steals, and by forward Glen Rice, who averages 21.9 points. The Wolverines, who like to play a wide-open, full-court game, struggled some late in the season, falling out of contention for the Big Ten title.

Michigan also has lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament in each of the last three seasons, leaving a big question mark on Bill Frieder’s coaching abilities. The Wolverines’ potential second-round opponent is no pushover--the winner of the St. John’s-Florida game.

Games to watch: Wyoming (26-5) vs. Loyola Marymount (27-3) today at Salt Lake City; Seton Hall (21-12) vs. Texas El Paso (23-9) Friday at Pauley Pavilion.