After the Vote: Win or Lose, Growth Fight Will Rage : Slow Change, Conflict Seen In Event of Measure A Victory

If the slow-growth initiative is approved by voters Tuesday, it will take several months--or even years--before the public notices much except better signal synchronization at some intersections, many observers say.

Although county officials say they will begin implementing the initiative at 9 a.m. Wednesday morning, the first people to actually notice any change will be developers, builders and the bureaucrats who process proposed new development projects.

That is because new development requires tremendous lead time before actual construction. Also, the public may see little change immediately because the county has signed agreements that guarantee development rights for 65,000 new housing units in exchange for money to build new roads and other public facilities.

That is about a seven-year supply of new housing, based on the county’s yearly average of residential building permits, unless lawsuits filed by slow-growth advocates invalidate the developer agreements.

Lawsuit Will Proceed

A lawsuit filed by the Building Industry Assn. to invalidate the initiative will proceed through the court system, a process that could take years.

For the past two months, a special county task force has been meeting quietly behind closed doors in the County Hall of Administration to work out an implementation plan.

“Our intent is that if the initiative wins on the (June) 7th, we’ll be ready to go on the 8th,” said Assistant County Administrative Officer Murry Cable. “We’re trying to fulfill the initiative’s intent. . . . If a developer comes to the door the morning after the election, he will receive a set of instructions on what to do.”

The county’s existing development monitoring staff will be used to determine whether proposed projects meet the initiative’s requirements.

Any project not covered by a development agreement that fails to meet the initiative’s standards will be sent back to the drawing board, according to county officials.

Slow-growth leader Tom Rogers said builders “will notice a difference immediately in the permit application process. And the public will see an intersection improvement plan shortly--with priorities--a fund to pay for the improvements, and a date certain for achievement of the initiative’s goals at the intersections near a new project.

“You might see some immediate improvements within a year, but it depends on the mitigating measures that developers take to meet the initiative’s requirements. I think you’ll see a higher degree of signal synchronization to solve the smaller, immediate problems, because that’s the least expensive way to achieve some gains.

“And there will be much more use of flexible work schedules and ride-sharing because that’s another way of meeting the initiative’s traffic requirements without spending a lot of money.”

Dimmer View

Attorney John Simon, chairman of Citizens for Traffic Solutions, the main anti-initiative group, has a dimmer view of post-election Orange County.

“If it wins, we’re going to have a lot of litigation,” Simon said. “There will be contentiousness and bitter fighting for years unless we get together and achieve some kind of consensus.”

He said the impact on new housing construction would not be immediately apparent because of the seven-year supply of approved housing.

But after that supply is exhausted, he said, “there would be tremendous turmoil out there.”

Simon said that lawsuits seeking to invalidate the initiative “have about a 50-50 chance” of succeeding.

In the interim, Simon said, he hopes a growth management plan recommended by a Board of Supervisors’ ad-hoc citizens committee--similar to the initiative but less objectionable to developers--will become the technical tool by which the initiative is implemented.

No Reason for Lawsuits

If the panel’s recommendations can serve as a plan for implementing the initiative, said committee chairman Bruce Nestande, there is no reason for post-election lawsuits. During three months of weekly meetings, he said, building industry representatives agreed with slow-growth advocates on the panel in interpreting the initiative.

Nevertheless, John Erskine, executive director of the Building Industry Assn. and a member of the ad-hoc committee, said county residents are likely to see immediate increases in home prices and an economic downturn affecting employment.

“We’re in for a time of belt-tightening,” he said.

MONEY RAISED FOR MEASURE A CAMPAIGN As of June 3, 1988

Supporters $48,000

Opponents $1.81 million

ELECTIONS ’88

ORANGE COUNTY

An assessment of countywide slow-growth initiative. Page 3.

An eight-page Voters’ Guide to Tuesday’s election. Part II-AR.