Democrats Face Uphill Final Lap : Bush Extends Lead in Poll to 10 Points

George Bush is pulling away from Michael S. Dukakis in their race for the White House and has opened up a 10-point lead after having exceeded even his own supporters’ expections in the presidential debate, the Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

At the same time, the Times’ nationwide survey found that Dukakis disappointed his own supporters on several scores during the debate and wound up losing some previously undecided voters to Bush.

Bentsen Viewed Favorably

One bright spot for Dukakis was that registered voters, by 4 to 1, said they consider his running mate, Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, to be “more qualified” to take over the presidency if necessary than Bush’s running mate, Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle. Even Bush’s supporters regarded Bentsen as more qualified than Quayle, by 5 to 3.

Nevertheless, the Bush-Quayle ticket was preferred over Dukakis-Bentsen by 52% to 42%, with 5% undecided and 1% for “other” candidates. This represented a three-point increase in the lead for Bush over what the same registered voters had told Times interviewers before watching the televised debate.

Going into the debate, the Republican ticket led by 47% to 40%, with 12% undecided and 1% for “others.” Among these voters, 7% moved from the undecided ranks during the debate and nearly three-fourths of them lined up in the Bush column, the Times survey showed.

Bush’s latest lead actually represents a seven-point gain when compared to a similar Times poll just last weekend. At that time, the GOP ticket was barely in front statistically, 44% to 41%, with 14% undecided.

In the latest interviewing, the Times Poll twice surveyed 529 registered voters who said they had watched the debate. The voters first were interviewed over a three-day period before the debate, then reinterviewed immediately after the event to measure its impact on their attitudes. The margin of error is 5% in either direction.

Prognosis for Dukakis

“If I were a doctor, I would say the prognosis for Michael Dukakis is now guarded,” Times Poll Director I. A. Lewis said.

The Times survey found Bush and Dukakis to be running virtually even among the swing-vote “Reagan Democrats”--those highly sought Democrats who crossed party lines and voted for President Reagan in 1984. The candidates also were splitting the blue collar vote.

But Bush was running 16 points ahead among white voters and 36 points ahead among white Southerners.

Bush was leading not only among men (by 16 points), but also among women (by 5).

Dukakis was ahead 3 to 1 among liberals, but the problem here was that liberals make up only one-fourth of the electorate. Four in 10 voters regard themselves as conservatives, according to the Times survey, and Bush was leading more than 3 to 1 within this group. Middle-roaders were giving Bush a slight edge.

Protestants, Catholics

By religion, Protestants were supporting Bush by 17 points, and Catholics were leaning his way by 7.

Based on interviews before and after the debate, Bush’s impression on voters’ improved somewhat during the confrontation to 70% favorable and 28% unfavorable. The impression of Dukakis stayed roughly the same, and it included a relatively high “negative” factor: 55% favorable, 41% unfavorable.

The immediate reaction of voters to the debate, as reported Friday by The Times, was to score it almost 2 to 1 for Bush: 47% to 26%, with 27% calling it a draw.

Bush’s performance was a pleasant surprise for many of his supporters. Only 38% of Bush’s supporters expected him to “win” the debate, but afterward 80% believed that he had. Only half his supporters thought he would give the “most direct” answers to questions, but two-thirds later said that he did.

Bush also significantly exceeded the expectations of his supporters on such human questions as “displaying the strongest personality and character,” “getting across his message,” showing “warmth” and being “likable.” In fact, on no measurement tested by The Times did Bush not match his supporters’ expectations.

Accomplishes Goal

What all this presumably meant for the front-runner is that it enabled him to accomplish one of his principal goals during the debate: the reinforcement of his own voter base. Evidence that he accomplished this was that after the debate, when more Bush supporters said they were “certain” of voting for him on Nov. 8.

Conversely, Dukakis did not perform up to his supporters’ expectations on several scores. For example, about two-thirds predicted he would “respond best under pressure,” but afterward only half thought he had.

The governor also did not live up to his supporters’ expectations on exuding “warmth.”

But it was somewhat a mixed bag for Dukakis, who pleasantly surprised his supporters by being better than they had anticipated on the federal budget deficit, “holding down taxes” and the environment.

Deeper Into Corner

Through it all, in the eyes of those interviewed, Bush managed to nudge Dukakis further into the liberal corner where he has been pounding the Democrat since the summer conventions. Before the debate, about as many Dukakis supporters considered him to be more conservative than themselves as considered him to be to the left. Afterward, nearly twice as many regarded him as more liberal than themselves as considered him more conservative.

Interestingly, Bush and Dukakis both are on the wrong side politically of one issue popular with voters--trade protectionism. Asked whether the United States “should restrict foreign imports into this country in order to protect American industry and jobs,” voters answered yes by 3 to 1. But both candidates are anti-protectionist, Bush a shade more so than Dukakis.