COLLEGE BASKETBALL ‘88-89 : Forecast Bright for Duke, Dark for Kentucky

The symbolic opener of the college basketball season, the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic in Springfield, Mass., was little more than symbolic this year. Sixteen teams played first-round games in the Big Apple National Invitation Tournament Friday night, the evening before Duke and Kentucky played at Springfield.

But as a symbol of the coming season, the game between Duke and Kentucky--an 80-55 Blue Devil victory--couldn’t be upstaged.

Duke, with forwards Danny Ferry and Robert Brickey and point guard Quin Snyder back from last season’s Final Four team, is widely considered to be the best in the country.

And Kentucky--well, you know the story. In a year in which National Collegiate Athletic Assn. champion Kansas already has been put on a year’s probation for recruiting violations, the Wildcats will start the season awaiting the results of an NCAA investigation into alleged recruiting violations.

For Kentucky, a school that has won 5 NCAA championships and more games--1,453--than any school in college basketball history, the season will be long. The possibility of a losing record, which would be the Wildcats’ first since 1926-27, may be the least of it. If the NCAA does impose sanctions, Kentucky could face what Kansas does--or much worse.

“I do wish they would get it all over with--no matter what,” Kentucky’s LeRon Ellis, a former star at Santa Ana Mater Dei High School, said after he led Kentucky with 17 points before fouling out. “It’s been dragging on for I don’t know how many months. Just get it done.”

Chris Mills, the former Fairfax High School star whose recruitment was investigated after $1,000 allegedly was found in an air freight package allegedly sent by Kentucky assistant Dwane Casey and addressed to his father, Claud Mills, scored 7 points and had 11 rebounds in the loss.

For Kentucky, it would seem, the season can only get worse, and for Duke, only better.

In Ferry, the Blue Devils have the best, although not the most talented, player in the Atlantic Coast Conference--sorry, J.R. Reid. Ferry also is perhaps the best in the country, rivaled only by Arizona’s Sean Elliott.

Ferry, a 6-foot 10-inch forward, has the best of basketball pedigrees. His father is General Manager Bob Ferry of the Washington Bullets, and his high school coach was Morgan Wootten of fabled DeMatha High School in Hyattsville, Md.

And in Mike Krzyzewski, Duke has a coach who deserves more of the praise that goes elsewhere in the conference. He has taken Duke to the Final Four twice in the last 3 seasons, and neighbor North Carolina hasn’t been since 1982.

SOME OTHER TOP TEAMS

Georgetown--John Thompson’s coaching reputation, sullied by the U.S. Olympic team’s loss, could be cleansed very quickly. In Alonzo Mourning, a 6-10 center, he has one of the most celebrated freshmen of the decade. Charles Smith, an Olympic guard, is the top returning player. Thompson will bolster the Mourning-led front line with newcomers Dikembe Mutombo, a 6-11 player from Zaire, and John Turner, a 6-7 community college transfer. By the end of the season, he may be a wizard again.

Iowa--It took Arizona to knock Iowa out of the NCAA tournament last season in a regional semifinal. Returning point guard B. J. Armstrong, swing man Roy Marble and center Ed Horton averaged 44 points among them. The top newcomer is Matt Bullard, a 6-10 transfer from Colorado who was invited to the Olympic trials, along with Armstrong and Horton.

Syracuse--The Orangemen’s answer to Mourning? Billy Owens, a 6-9 freshman with offensive skills more diverse than Mourning’s. And don’t forget point guard Sherman Douglas, center-forward Derrick Coleman, forward Stevie Thompson and 3-point specialist Matt Roe. Coleman prefers forward to center, so Coach Jim Boeheim may replace Rony Seikaly with freshman Richard Manning.

Illinois--Illinois lacks height. Marcus Liberty, a 6-8 swing player who was ineligible under Proposition 48 last season, is the tallest player. But Coach Lou Henson has plenty of other talent--Nick Anderson, Kenny Battle, Lowell Hamilton, Steve Bardo, Kendall Gill and Larry Smith.

“We’ll have seven starters,” Henson says.

Illinois, along with Iowa, should be a national championship contender. A third Big Ten team, Michigan, has four starters back, led by forward Glen Rice, the conference scoring leader last season. But without Gary Grant--now a Clipper--to run the show, the Wolverines may not live up to expectations, particularly in postseason play. Coach Bill Frieder’s teams never have.

Oklahoma--The Sooners, after all, won 35 games and played in the NCAA title game. Stacey King, the predominant center in the country, and ball-hawking guard Mookie Blaylock are back. Coach Billy Tubbs has community college transfers or Proposition 48 players standing by to help fill in the gaps left by departed Ricky Grace, Harvey Grant and Dave Sieger.

A SIDELONG GLANCE AT THE SEASON

The Best of the Rest (alphabetically): Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Loyola Marymount, Missouri, Nevada Las Vegas. North Carolina, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Stanford, Temple, Villanova.

Earliest Disappointment: Louisville. The Cardinals, who won NCAA titles in 1980 and ‘86, were ranked fourth in the Associated Press preseason poll but lost to Xavier of Cincinnati in their opener Friday, 85-83. And that’s Xavier without Byron Larkin. Pervis Ellison is down to his last chance to repeat the feat of his freshman season.

Those Freshmen: Besides Mourning and Owens, there is a passel of other highly regarded freshmen. Among them: Kentucky’s Mills; Louisiana State’s Chris Jackson, a 6-0 guard; Maryland’s Jerrod Mustaf, a 6-10 center; Missouri’s Anthony Peeler, a 6-4 guard; Notre Dame’s LaPhonso Ellis, a 6-9 center; Stanford’s Adam Keefe, a 6-9 center; and UCLA’s Darrick Martin, a 5-11 guard, and Don MacLean, a 6-10 forward.

Most Anticipated Game: Loyola Marymount at Oklahoma, Dec. 17. Hank Gathers and Bo Kimble helped Loyola Marymount lead the nation in scoring last season with an average of 110 points per game. Oklahoma made it to the NCAA final averaging 103. This matchup speaks for itself.

A Few NCAA Numbers for Loyola and Oklahoma to Beat:

282--Most points, both teams (including overtimes), Nevada Las Vegas 142, Utah State 140 (3 overtimes), Jan. 2, 1985.

275--Most points, both teams (regulation), Nevada Las Vegas 164, Hawaii Hilo 111, Feb. 19, 1976.

127--Most points, losing team (regulation), Loyola Marymount 144, Pepperdine 127, Feb. 20, 1988.

Most Envious Coach: Bill Mulligan of UC Irvine, whose goal is to lead the nation in scoring, and whose team after 2 exhibition games is averaging 126 points--offensively and defensively.

“We want to play Loyola every year,” Mulligan said. “We don’t care where we play them. We’ll play them here or there. We’ll play them outside. But they can’t make room for us on their schedule. They have to play USIU (U.S. International). And then there’s that big game with Azusa Pacific. I said this to (Loyola Coach Paul) Westhead, and he said, ‘Don’t bother me. I used to coach in the pros.’ ”

Westhead probably didn’t say that, but it makes a great story.

Who is Stacey Cvijanovich? The only player on Nevada Las Vegas’ 10th-ranked team who has earned more than one letter. Six of the Rebels’ top eight players are newcomers, with only Olympian Stacey Augmon, a sophomore, and guard Clint Rossum figuring to play among the returnees. Center David Butler and guards Greg Anthony and Anderson Hunt are among the newcomers.

News from the World of Publishing: For the first time since the 1985-86 season, there is no Bob Knight book in the works--yet.

In 1986 came the first and best of them, John Feinstein’s best-selling “Season on the Brink: A Year with Bob Knight & the Indiana Hoosiers.”

Knight, angered by the book, severed relations with Feinstein and said that if anyone else was going to write a book about Bob Knight, it was going to be Bob Knight.

But after Indiana won the 1987 NCAA title, sports editor Bob Hammel of the Bloomington (Ind.) Herald Telephone wrote “Beyond the Brink,” actually a book more about the championship season than Knight.

This year, just for good measure, Joan Mellen, a Temple English professor, has added “Bob Knight: His Own Man,” an uneven book based on reporting done last season whose central purpose seems to be to rebut Feinstein’s book.

Most Inexplicable Literary Taste: Sean Sutton, a member of the Kentucky team and the son of Coach Eddie Sutton, lists “Season on the Brink” as his favorite book. Knight is a longtime critic of the Kentucky program. Maybe Sutton identifies with the title.

Coaching Changes: Forty-one NCAA Division I schools have new coaches this season, and no coach is likely to be more closely watched than UCLA’s Jim Harrick.

But one of the most intriguing first-year coaches is Lefty Driesell, who returns 2 years after being forced to resign at Maryland 4 months after the death of Len Bias. This year, he takes over at James Madison, a Colonial Athletic Assn. school in Harrisonburg, Va., a town whose basketball fame heretofore was as Ralph Sampson’s hometown.

“I know we’re picked to finish eighth in the league, but I never finished eighth in any league (in which) I coached,” Driesell, 56, said at the conference media day.

Other Changes of Note: Tom Penders, who guided Rhode Island to the NCAA regional semifinals, takes over at Texas, and Dave Bliss has gone from Southern Methodist to New Mexico.

One coach has a job but no games--Perry Clark, a former Georgia Tech assistant who has been hired at Tulane, which will return to competition in 1989-90. The Tulane program was shut down 3 years ago after a betting scandal.

Team Most Likely to Lose by 40 to Top-Seeded Team in First Round of NCAA Tournament: Dartmouth. It has become an Ivy League tradition: Win the league title, draw the No. 1 team in the nation. Last year, Arizona pushed aside Cornell, 90-50. In 1987, North Carolina eliminated Pennsylvania, 113-82.

Final Four Site: Seattle, April 1-3, 1989. Teams TBA.