NFL DRAFT ANALYSIS : CREAM OF THE CROP : It’s Sometimes on Top, but Often in Second Through Fifth Rounds

For the National Football League, the idea of an April Sunday as a day for the draft is apparently here to stay.

Continuing last year’s procedures, the NFL will begin handing off the nation’s top college players this morning at 9.

And again, the sure winners will be the clubs that find the most talent in four particular rounds--the second through the fifth--as the champion San Francisco 49ers have done lately.

Again, even so, the national focus will be on name players--such as Heisman Trophy winner Barry Sanders and the other Sanders, Deion as in Neion--as it is every spring.

By now the pattern is deeply established. To most football fans, the excitement of the draft is in the first-round selections--even though many of them turn out to be marginally effective if not disappointments or even flops.

For example, the Rams’ first pick last year, UCLA’s Gaston Green, was ineffective, denying Coach John Robinson his best chance to cash in on the trade of Eric Dickerson to Indianapolis.

“The (NFL’s first-round) problem is that there have been only a half-dozen can’t-miss guys each year--in the whole draft--since 1983,” said Dick Steinberg, the New England Patriots’ chief scout. This is like all the others in the (six) years since John Elway and a load of other talent came up in one bunch.

“Some productive players will be picked in the last half of the first round, and in the next few rounds, as they always are--but they’re hard to (identify) ahead of (the draft). After the first six or eight players, the next 100 seem so close in size, speed and ability that (drafting) is more like guesswork.”

Nonetheless, in football as in Hollywood, the interest is in the marquee names. And so the march of the first-rounders will be closely watched today, particularly as it starts.

The oddity of the year is that neither of the country’s top two players--as rated by the combines and most teams--will go first. These are offensive tackle Tony Mandarich of Michigan State and cornerback Deion Sanders of Florida State.

And Sanders may not even go in the first three or four.

One explanation is that UCLA’s Troy Aikman, the 1989 top pick who was signed Thursday by the Dallas Cowboys, is a quarterback. A pro club can win the championship with a deficient cornerback--or offensive tackle--but not with an inferior quarterback.

Thus Aikman, who has more strengths than weaknesses for his position, will be the first player introduced when the NFL’s made-for-television program begins on ESPN with Commissioner Pete Rozelle presiding for the last time.

The case of Deion Sanders, the Florida State sprinter, is a little different. Though his talent is unquestioned, Sanders has been too publicly outspoken to please some NFL coaches and could be passed over by three or four of the teams drafting immediately after the Cowboys--Green Bay, Detroit, Kansas City and Atlanta.

It is being said that the Falcons will be stuck with Sanders if, as expected, the Packers pick Mandarich, the Lions pick Oklahoma State running back Barry Sanders, and the Chiefs choose Alabama linebacker Derrick Thomas.

For the talent thins out thereafter.

Somewhere down the line, at least one pro club and probably two will make room for two of the most unusual prospects on the board--the USC batterymates of recent seasons, quarterback Rodney Peete and wide receiver Erik Affholter.

The NFL perception is that Peete doesn’t have the arm for pro football and that Affholter doesn’t have the speed. But more than one scout has been impressed by their intangibles--Peete’s leadership, along with his ability to throw on the run, and Affholter’s rare determination to get open and hold onto the ball.

Joel Buchsbaum, Pro Football Weekly’s personnel expert, rates Peete surprisingly close to Aikman and ahead of the two quarterbacks in the supplemental draft, Timm Rosenbach of Washington State and Steve Walsh of Miami.

In a rating system that tops out at 8.5 for Mandarich, Buchsbaum gives an 8.0 to Deion Sanders, 7.0 to Aikman and 6.1 to Peete. Of Peete, Buchsbaum said: “No quarterback prospect has better vision or instincts for the (position).”

The only further potential pro stars in the draft are believed to be Nebraska linebacker Broderick Thomas, Florida State running back Sammie Smith, Georgia running back Tim Worley, Auburn nose tackle Tracy Rocker, and Michigan State wide receiver Andre Rison.

But some of them may not make it--some of the players rated even more highly last year didn’t make it--whereas some of those chosen on second and subsequent rounds today are sure to make it big.

The draft has become a grab bag from which dozens of winning players can be plucked on the second and third rounds, and even the fourth and fifth, by those who have the skill or luck to find them. “They’re there because it’s so hard to really measure competitiveness--which is about half of what it takes,” Rozelle said.

Bill Walsh, the new San Francisco front-office leader who coached the 49ers to three Super Bowl championships in the last eight years, concentrates on the upper middle rounds each spring to build the NFL’s strongest club.

No fewer than 14 of Walsh’s 22 Super Bowl starters in Miami three months ago came to the 49ers in Rounds 3, 4, and 5 of various drafts.

The six who came in Round 3 included fullback Tom Rathman and the pitcher and catcher of the winning pass in Super Bowl XXIII, Joe Montana and John Taylor.

The two who made the difference in the 49er pass rush last season were rookies picked in Round 2 a year ago, Daniel Stubbs and Pierce Holt.

The 49er team, in other words, was passed over repeatedly by every other team in the drafts of recent springs.

“There’s a lot of talent on those (upper middle) rounds,” Walsh said. “But they all have some negatives. What’s hard is to balance their strengths and negatives and arrive at the (best) decision.”

The 49ers don’t ignore first rounds--they got flanker Jerry Rice and safety Ronnie Lott up there--but unlike some teams, they don’t make it a point to collect first-round choices.

Cincinnati usually does. And this year, Chicago has collected three. By comparison, Walsh reasons that if he had two No. 1s every spring, it would still take him 11 years to build a winning team with first-round choices.

It’s all a matter of mathematics. Although the perception is that this is the NFL’s sixth straight weak draft--and although the day of a series of obviously great first-round quarterbacks and others is clearly over--the colleges do send up 100 to 110 satisfactory new players every year.

And there are places for 112 players in the NFL’s first four rounds, 140 in the first five.

For the teams that guess right, the talent is there.

Indianapolis, for example, after sending its first two picks to the Rams last year in the Dickerson deal, scored in the third round with Washington quarterback Chris Chandler, who is considered the best third-round quarterback since Montana.

Also in the third round, the New York Jets drafted the defensive rookie of the year, safety Erik McMillan.

Fullback Robert Delpino, probably the most helpful of the new Rams, was drafted in the fifth round.

The name players will be in Round 1. But the early ‘90s championships will be won, no doubt, in Rounds 2 and 3. Or 4 and 5.

Pro Football Notes

In other years, most casual sports fans

have found the seven-hour draft-day telecast terribly dull. It was designed for the buffs, of whom there are more in football--counting college and pro football--than in other sports. . . . This will be Pete Rozelle’s 31st draft--28th as commissioner after three as general manager of the Rams. . . . Former Congressman Jack Kemp has the most early support in the race to succeed Rozelle this fall. . . . The pros will select 335 college players in 12 rounds today and Monday. . . . This spring’s free-agent draft has left Ram Coach John Robinson with a heavier burden than that on Raider Coach Mike Shanahan. The Rams lost 12 players in the special draft and signed only three. The Raiders lost six but signed 11. Minnesota, the only NFL team to operate a free-agent camp this spring, signed eight of the players it worked out. The 49ers lost two players and signed six. . . . Though the Chicago Bears found Richard Dent in the eighth round one year, the scouts consider all those chosen in the sixth round or lower to be distinct longshots.