The Major League Baseball Draft : Picking the Winners--and Losers

On June 5, 1982, the Minnesota Twins’ future looked bright. They had the fourth pick in the baseball draft that morning and when it came their time to select, the player they wanted was still available.

“It was an obvious choice,” recalled George Brophy, then the Twins’ vice president for scouting. “Bryan Oelkers had been the college pitcher of the year. He was exactly what we needed. So we took him.”

The New York Mets had the next pick. They took Dwight Gooden.

“Sure, now everybody asks why we didn’t get Gooden,” said Brophy, currently a scout for Houston. “But he was still in high school, and I’ll bet there haven’t been 10 high-school pitchers to make it big. The Mets caught lightning in a bottle that day.”

On Monday, all 26 major league teams will try to do the same when the three-day draft begins. The Baltimore Orioles hold the No. 1 pick for the first time and are expected to take Ben McDonald, a pitcher from Louisiana State.

Unlike the highly publicized NFL and NBA drafts, where first-round picks almost automatically make the team and it is easy to project at least a dozen future stars, nothing is certain in baseball’s more obscure picking process. Only half of the players taken in the first round will ever be successful because too many things can happen on the way to the big leagues.

The Seattle Mariners thought they had a sure thing when they made Al “Choo Choo” Chambers the top pick in the 1979 draft. Chambers, a big hitter in high school, eventually made it to the majors for a few games but soon disappeared.

That same year, the Los Angeles Dodgers gambled in the 17th round on the third-best starter on the Bowling Green University staff. That was Orel Hershiser.

“He wasn’t overpowering, but he had a good arm. Also, there was his makeup and continual pursuit of improvement,” Dodgers general manager Fred Claire said.

“You’ve got to give credit to our scouting staff. He didn’t come by accident,” he said. “After all, the 17th round is a long way down, but at the same time, that is the 17th-best player you’ve put into your system in that given year. And that’s not a throw-away draft.”

In the 19th round the same year, the New York Yankees drafted a high school player from Indiana who had a pretty swing. He was Don Mattingly.

“At the time, I thought I should’ve been taken higher,” Mattingly said. “But when I look back on it, I can see why I wasn’t. I couldn’t run and I couldn’t throw. All I could do was hit, and no one knows if a good high school hitter will ever make it to the majors.”

Last year, only eight of the 26 picks in the first round were high school players. But this year, nine of the first 15 picks are expected to come from high school, with Atlanta projected to make outfielder Earl Cunningham the second choice.

In recent years, more teams have selected college players, hoping to get immediate help without so much risk. The California Angels made Jim Abbott the eighth choice last year and Baltimore took Gregg Olson with the fourth pick. The No. 1 player was pitcher Andy Benes, selected by San Diego.

Many times, though, good players develop from late-round picks.

In 1982, Oakland waited until the 15th round to draft a still-developing high school star from Florida -- Jose Canseco. Kansas City held off until the 19th round the same year before taking a high school pitcher from Los Angeles who had arm trouble -- Bret Saberhagen.

Wade Boggs went in the seventh round to Boston in 1976, Kent Hrbek was Minnesota’s 17th-round choice in 1978 and Eric Davis signed after being taken by Cincinnati in the eighth round in 1980.

One of the greatest picks of all time turned out to be St. Louis’ selection in the 41st round in 1971 -- Keith Hernandez.

Philadelphia found a gem in the 20th round of the 1978 draft, taking Ryne Sandberg.

“I had already signed a letter-of-intent to go to Washington State to play shortstop and quarterback. Some teams didn’t want to waste a pick,” Sandberg said. “The Phillies took me at the end there and I ended up changing my mind a week later.”

Darryl Strawberry, Harold Baines, Mike Moore and Floyd Bannister are each former No. 1 in the nation picks who turned out fine. So was Shawon Dunston, the top choice in 1982.

Augie Schmidt, taken after Dunston, never made it with Toronto. Next was Jimmy Jones, now pitching for the Yankees. Then, Oelkers.

Oelkers, it should be pointed out, reached the majors before Gooden. Oelkers had gone 16-2 at Wichita State in 1982 and played for the Twins in 1983, going 0-5. He’s now a minor leaguer with St. Louis.

“He ran into arm trouble. Without that, he would’ve had a fine career,” said Brophy, the man who drafted him for Minnesota. “But I guess not as good as Gooden.”