As It Opens, the NFC Race Looks Wide Open : Nine of 14 Teams in the Conference Could Be Considered Super Bowl Contenders

When the Super Bowls of the 20th Century are recalled in the winter of 2001, it is likely to be recorded that the most dramatic of them all was Super Bowl XXIII in Miami--the 1989 game won in the last 34 seconds, 20-16, when Joe Montana led the San Francisco 49ers 92 yards to overtake the Cincinnati Bengals.

Some team, they’ll say about San Francisco.

But was it? In the playoffs, maybe. But the regular season was something else last year for the 49ers:

--They were only one of seven National Football League teams finishing with 10-6 records.

--In the final regular-season reckoning, no fewer than 11 of the NFL’s 28 clubs either equaled or bettered the 1988 49ers in the won-lost columns.

--All but four of these winners played in the National Conference, which had three close and lively races in its three divisions.

And this year, NFC coaches expect more of the same.

The NFL’s 70th season will begin next Sunday with nine Super Bowl contenders in the 14-city National Conference--nine teams, that is, with the required muscle, resources and endurance to reach Super Bowl XXIV in New Orleans next Jan. 28.

In the preseason predictions this summer, eight of the nine--all but the Dallas Cowboys--have been chosen to win it by more than one newspaper, magazine or broadcaster.

Three contenders are in the West--the Rams, 49ers and a New Orleans team that has finished 10-6 and 12-3 in the last two years.

Four are in the East--Washington, Dallas, the New York Giants and defending champion Philadelphia.

The two in the NFC Central are Minnesota and Chicago, whose 1988 regular-season performance and records, 11-5 and 12-4, respectively, suggested that one of them--and not the 49ers--should have carried on to take it all.

Once the 49ers won the NFC, of course, they became the obvious championship favorite last winter. For National Conference teams have won five straight Super Bowls, and seven of the last eight.

As a rule in the 1980s, moreover, the NFC’s Super Bowl representatives have been blowing the AFC away. Although the two conferences are competitive in regular-season games, Cincinnati is the only AFC club to put up much of a fight recently in the January decider.

In other words, regardless of overall conference strength, the NFC’s best four or five teams are better than the AFC’s best four or five. Or so it has seemed in the Januarys of this decade.

What of 1989? The AFC is getting closer, perhaps. But the higher you look in the standings, the stronger the National Conference.

These could be the NFC’s top 10, with each coach’s NFL record in parenthesis:

1. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

1988 Record: 11-5

Quarterback: Wade Wilson

Coach: Jerry Burns (31-21)

Their erratic offensive leadership can be a load at times, but at game time the Vikings field the most gifted players in the league. Led by safety Joey Browner, nearly half of their defensive starters made it to the 1989 Pro Bowl. Their offensive people are almost as able, though they don’t run as well as they pass.

2. L.A. RAMS

1988 Record: 10-6

Quarterback: Jim Everett

Coach: John Robinson (58-44)

Robinson is their edge. His ability to inspire football players makes the defense powerful. The way he designs and coaches the running game makes them powerful there, no matter who carries the ball. With Henry Ellard, the receiving is first rate. Thus, the question is whether Everett, in his fourth NFL campaign, can step forward.

3. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

1988 Record: 10-6

QB: Randall Cunningham

Coach: Buddy Ryan (22-25-1)

The NFL consensus is that with Cunningham and defensive end Reggie White, the Eagles have the two most valuable players in the league, one on each side of the ball. Their coaching is also resourceful. They can be beaten in the offensive line and by their opposition in a tough division.

4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS

1988 Record: 7-9

Quarterback: Mark Rypien

Coach: Joe Gibbs (92-42)

The Redskins have what it takes to go as far as Rypien can take them. In only his second NFL year, he is a Canadian-born sixth-round draft choice from Washington State. The NFL consensus is that Gibbs leads the league in coaching, that his defense is adequate, that he has better parts this year for his one-back machine.

5. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

1988 Record: 10-6

Quarterback: Bobby Hebert

Coach: Jim Mora (29-19)

In the 1988 Western standings, the Saints tied the 49ers and Rams at the top after finishing 12-3 the year before behind San Francisco’s 13-2. Their backfield is improving with Hebert, Dalton Hilliard and Ironhead Heyward, but they still need speed everywhere. Moreover, Mora is a 1960s coach, supremely sound but unimaginative for the ‘80s.

6. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

1988 Record: 10-6

Quarterback: Joe Montana

Coach: George Seifert (0-0)

The whole question here is whether the 49ers can win without Bill Walsh. Or whether, perchance, they have vowed to win without Bill Walsh. The history of the ‘80s is that the same team can’t win a repeat Super Bowl. But with new coaching, this isn’t the same team. Seifert could be a Lombardi. Ominously for their rivals, the 49ers are fielding the same nucleus: Ronnie Lott, Michael Carter, Roger Craig, Jerry Rice, Montana.

7. CHICAGO BEARS

1988 Record: 12-4

Quarterback: Mike Tomczak

Coach: Mike Ditka (78-35)

Ditka had his heart attack last year ahead of a Tampa Bay game--persuasive evidence that it was unrelated to football. He’s won five straight divisional titles by repetitiously beating Tampa and the other easy marks in the NFC Central, which Minnesota can’t do. In a rebuilding year for Ditka, the Jim McMahon trade puts his fate up to new passers.

8. DALLAS COWBOYS

1988 Record: 3-13

Quarterback: Troy Aikman

Coach: Jimmy Johnson (0-0)

Can a team that was last in the league last year rebound instantly with rookie leadership? That’s what 1989 is all about in Dallas. Johnson, Aikman and backup quarterback Steve Walsh are all NFL rookies. Two tips: Johnson inherited a bunch of quality players, more than some rivals suspect. Secondly, he put a stable, well-coached team on the field in every game all summer.

9. N.Y. GIANTS

1988 Record: 10-6

Quarterback: Phil Simms

Coach: Bill Parcells (57-44)

Any club that has Lawrence Taylor blitzing and Mark Bavaro catching passes should be a contender. But the Giants, like the Bears, are in a rebuilding mode. The question is whether they can rebuild and win at the same time from teams that start the season with more firepower.

10. PHOENIX CARDINALS

1988 Record: 7-9

Quarterback: Gary Hogeboom

Coach: Gene Stallings (18-28-1)

With some talent plus the coaching of Stallings, the Cardinals were coming on until Neil Lomax broke down at quarterback. They may still be the NFC’s 10th best team.

A look at each division:

WEST: Rams, New Orleans, San Francisco. The Atlanta Falcons attack with one of the Pac-10’s many quarterback exports, Chris Miller of Oregon, but look better on paper than they play.

EAST: Philadelphia, Washington, Dallas, New York Giants, Phoenix.

CENTRAL: Minnesota, Chicago. The Detroit Lions, who have lost starting quarterback Rodney Peete for three to five weeks with a knee injury, will be in contention the year they master their potentially proficient run-and-shoot shoot offense. The question is whether Tampa Bay will finish ahead of Green Bay.

The Buccaneers have been the unluckiest team in the league. They’ve seemingly chosen the right coaches from John McKay to the incumbent, Ray Perkins, and the right players in the draft. In 1987, they had to draft the college player of 1986, quarterback Vinny Testaverde. But as with so many other things in Tampa, it somehow hasn’t yet worked out.

The Packers may have a coach now in Lindy Infante, an offensive expert, but Infante has had two years to find a quarterback. And as of this moment, the record shows that he hasn’t done it.