THE TIMES POLL : Quake Aid Tax Hike? Yes on Sales, No on Gas

Most Californians are willing to pay a higher sales tax temporarily to raise money for Bay Area earthquake repairs and relief, but they strongly oppose increasing the gasoline tax, The Times Poll has found.

Most people also say they want the state Department of Transportation to place its highest priority on repairing old freeways to make them safer, rather than building new roadways to relieve traffic congestion, the survey showed.

Half the people, furthermore, think that Caltrans should cancel its plans to double-deck crowded freeways, such as the Harbor in Los Angeles, in view of the collapse of the double-deck Nimitz Freeway in Oakland.

Half the people blame no one for the Nimitz’s collapse, but a third say incompetence in construction may have played a part, and 15% even suspect fraud.

The Times Poll, directed by I.A. Lewis, interviewed 1,377 adults by telephone Thursday through Saturday in the first statewide poll measuring earthquake-related attitudes since the San Francisco Bay Area and the adjacent Santa Cruz-Hollister regions were struck with a devastating temblor Oct. 17. The 7.1-magnitude quake killed at least 63 people and caused more than $7 billion in damage.

Gov. George Deukmejian and legislative leaders are scheduled to meet in Sacramento today to set the agenda for a special session of the Legislature to decide how to finance the state’s share of earthquake repairs and assistance for victims.

Both the governor and legislative leaders are considering a temporary increase in the sales tax, which now ranges from 6 to 7 cents in various regions, or a stopgap hike in the 18-cent-per-gallon state/federal tax on gasoline--or a combination of both taxes. Deukmejian reportedly is leaning toward asking merely for standby authority to raise taxes on his own if he decides that the state’s present tax system is not producing enough money for earthquake repairs and relief.

Of those surveyed by The Times, 52% said they would accept a higher sales tax “for some period of time in order to pay for earthquake repairs and to aid earthquake victims in Northern California.” Forty-one percent opposed a sales tax hike and 7% were undecided.

For politicians trying to make the tough decision, the good news was that people who are registered to vote are especially supportive of a sales tax increase--by 55% to 38%. Democrats and Republicans alike feel this way. Non-voters are about evenly divided on the question.

Not surprisingly, Southern California residents are less enthusiastic than Northern Californians are about paying a higher sales tax to benefit the Bay Area.

By race, most whites and blacks support a sales tax hike, but Latinos are split about evenly.

On the average, people said they would be willing to have the sales tax increased by about 1 cent on the dollar for a period of roughly two years--an especially generous gesture. That would raise around $8.6 billion, far more than the state anticipates ever needing to finance victim assistance and structural repairs resulting from the Oct. 17 earthquake.

But the gasoline tax is another matter. Of those interviewed, only 36% supported raising it. A whopping 60% opposed the idea, with just 4% undecided.

Voters and non-voters, Democrats and Republicans, northerners and southerners alike all opposed a gas tax increase.

Furthermore, the disastrous earthquake has generated no new support for a sweeping ballot measure offered by Deukmejian and the Legislature that would permanently raise the gasoline tax by 9 cents a gallon and revise the state spending limit to finance highway construction and improvements. The proposal is destined for the state primary ballot next June.

In this post-earthquake survey, only 25% of the registered voters favored the ballot measure, with 55% opposing it and 20% undecided. In an earlier, pre-earthquake survey by The Times Poll this month, the results were essentially the same: 29% in favor, 53% opposed and 18% undecided.

Since the Oct. 17 temblor, Caltrans Director Robert K. Best has conceded that earthquake safety in recent years “was not the highest priority . . . for the expenditure of whatever funds became available.” However, Californians apparently now think that it should be.

Asked whether they think “a priority should be given to repairing old freeways to make them safer, or a priority should be given to constructing new freeways to help ease traffic congestion,” 57% opted for making existing roads safer. Only 32% said build more highways, and 11% were not sure. People all over the state generally felt this way.

In Los Angeles County, where motorists daily encounter bumper-to-bumper traffic jams but also live with the nagging fear of someday being rocked by a massive earthquake, people by 2 to 1 favor placing the priority on freeway structural safety rather than on freeway expansion.

And with 39 confirmed deaths in the Nimitz collapse freshly in their minds, Californians also believe, by a narrow 5-4 ratio, that Caltrans should scrub its plans to double-deck freeways.

In Los Angeles County, there are plans to double-deck not only 2.6 miles of the Harbor just south of downtown, but also parts of the Ventura, Santa Ana, San Diego and Santa Monica freeways. Los Angeles residents are more opposed to double-decking than other Californians, rejecting the concept by about 3 to 2. In the Bay Area, people still tend to favor double-decking.

While half the people reject the notion that construction incompetence or fraud were to blame for the crumbling of the Nimitz, 61% nevertheless believe that “the government” has failed to do “all it could to make sure the freeways are safe enough to use.”

Californians say they are concerned about earthquake safety, but many also seem to accept temblors as a way of life in this state.

Two-thirds say they have experienced an earthquake--and more than half of these people report it was a “bad” experience. Moreover, according to this survey, people believe that the chances are better than 50-50 that “the big one”--with a magnitude of 8 or higher--will strike in or very near the area where they live.

Yet 90% said that since the Oct. 17 earthquake they have not “thought about moving away” to another area. This generally was the sentiment all over the state.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they do not have earthquake insurance and do not intend to get any. Roughly one-fifth reported they already had quake insurance before Oct. 17 and another one-tenth said they now plan to obtain it.

Only 21% said that since the Northern California temblor hit have they “taken certain earthquake precautions around the house”--such as securing loose objects, placing straps around water heaters, moving heavy objects closer to the floor, making window glass shatterproof or bolting the house frame to its foundation. People living in Los Angeles County and the Bay Area have tended to take these steps more than other Californians.

Only 37% said they have stocked up on “certain supplies people ought to have on hand in case of an earthquake”--such as a portable radio, flashlight, extra batteries, first-aid kit, adjustable wrench for turning off water and gas lines, bottled water and canned or dried food.

However, 62% of those interviewed said they would feel safe at home “if ‘the big’ earthquake struck.” Only 38% said they would feel safe at work. And just 36% felt they would be safe driving on the roadways and bridges near their homes.

In the stricken Bay Area, 43% of the people said they had “experienced psychological aftereffects from the earthquake”--such as loss of appetite, having trouble concentrating, being depressed, frequently fearing for their safety, being more irritable than usual or having sleepless nights. Even in the rest of the state, 21% reported experiencing these psychological aftereffects.

But asked to name “the most important problem facing California today,” earthquake preparedness ranked low on the list. Crime and drugs, as usual, rated at the top, being chosen by 69%. (People were given up to two choices.) Next came homelessness, 22%; education, 20%; auto insurance, 18%; earthquake preparedness and the environment, both with 14%; health care, 9%, and transportation, 8%.

Finally, 69% agreed that it was “proper” to have resumed the World Series in the Bay Area 10 days after the earthquake. Another 15% felt it should have been played somewhere else and 8% think it should have been canceled. Men, more than women, favored keeping the series in San Francisco.

The margin of error for a survey of this size is three percentage points in either direction. Of those surveyed, 1,041 were registered to vote and the error margin for just these people was four points.

THE BIG ONE The average Californian thinks the chances are a little better than 50-50 that “the big one,” a major earthquake of magnitude 8 or more, will strike in or very near the area in which he or she lives.

People had differing views about the safest place to be:

Are you safe in your home? Safe: 62% Unsafe: 33% Are you safe at work? Safe: 38% Unsafe: 32% Are you safe driving on roads and bridges? Safe: 36% Unsafe: 58% Source: Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,377 Californians Oct. 26-28. WOULD BACK TAX HIKE

Sen. Bob Dole said he would favor a gas tax hike to rebuild quake-damaged area. A14