Projected Rail Costs Exceed Funds : Transportation: A county report says even a short line would cost almost twice what transit planners will have available in the next decade.

A long-awaited report on San Fernando Valley rail-route options released Wednesday suggests that there would be enough riders to support the proposed east-west line, but that even a shortened version of the line would cost almost twice what transit planners will have available in the coming decade.

The steeper-than-expected cost estimates--ranging from $500 million for a bare-bones surface system that would run only from North Hollywood to the Sepulveda Basin, to $3.5 billion for a cross-Valley subway--led some county transportation planners to predict that the proposed line will not be built until well past the turn of the century, if ever.

On the other hand, leading proponents insisted that money could be found, although they conceded that construction might not occur as soon as they had hoped.

The $2.1-million environmental impact report was commissioned by the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission, which plans to use it as a basis for picking a Valley mass transit route to connect with the Metro Rail subway between downtown and North Hollywood.

The commission, which is building a county-wide rail network using the extra half-cent sales tax that voters authorized in 1980, is scheduled to pick a Valley route in March.

Although the report studied 10 options along two routes, attention is expected to center on a plan that would extend Metro Rail partly underground to the Sepulveda Basin, where travelers bound for the West Valley would switch to buses.

That plan--which was offered several months ago as a compromise to draw together warring factions and which has attracted widespread support--would cost $1.3 billion and would draw 49,000 riders daily by the year 2010, the report said. Earlier predictions had been for 30,000 to 50,000 daily riders on a longer cross-Valley line.

County rail planners say no more than $600 million to $800 million will be available for a Valley line over the next decade.

This did not discourage state Sen. Alan Robbins (D-Tarzana), who along with Los Angeles City Councilman Marvin Braude co-authored the compromise plan.

“I’m very encouraged,” Robbins said. “I’m convinced that we will find the money somewhere,” he said, predicting funds will become available from another increase in the sales tax or bond issues.

But Christine Reed, chairwoman of the County Transportation Commission, said that if Valley leaders “continue to insist on subway, it’s clear from this report that nothing will be built for a long time, maybe 15 years.”

Commissioners also are to choose between light-rail technology and Metro Rail equipment, which has a higher capacity and is slightly more expensive. In addition, the commission is scheduled to determine whether the system should be at ground level, elevated or in a costly tunnel--a key question that for years has sharply divided homeowner leaders from business interests.

Homeowners say a ground-level or aerial line will ruin their neighborhoods with noise and ground vibrations, while business leaders insist that a subway is too expensive for the Valley.

The report appeared to buttress both sides.

Along the 15-mile Southern Pacific rail right of way that follows Chandler and Victory boulevards across the Valley to Warner Center, a ground-level system would cost $1 billion, while the same line as a subway would cost $2.9 billion, the report said.

The least expensive option, at $500 million, would be a ground-level system on this route from North Hollywood to the Sepulveda Basin.

Along the Ventura Freeway, the report considered only aerial and subway configurations, finding that trains could not be operated at ground level along the freeway except for a short span in the Sepulveda Basin.

Depending on how much of the freeway line is underground, the cost would be between $2.2 billion and $3.5 billion, the report said.

Along the Chandler-Victory route, a ground-level system would disturb 38 homes with noise and have a visual impact on 30 houses, while a subway would not disturb any houses, the report said.

The report said a freeway line would displace up to 500 houses, as many as 133 businesses and up to 43 acres of parkland, while the Chandler-Victory route would require condemnation of as many as 113 businesses and the loss of up to 29 acres of park but would not take any houses.

Reed, noting that 499 houses would be condemned for a freeway rail line, said: “I don’t think any elected official in his right mind would pick a route that requires taking 500 houses, so the freeway route looks like it won’t go.”

Actually, the freeway route has never had many supporters and, in addition, homeowners along the freeway are well-organized and vehemently opposed.

The Chandler-Victory route, though long favored by rail planners because the right of way is available, was strongly opposed by most homeowner groups until Robbins and Braude devised their North Hollywood-to-Sepulveda Basin plan.

Under the Robbins-Braude compromise, businesses gave up their goal of an immediate rail link to fast-growing Warner Center while homeowner leaders agreed to accept the dust and noise that would accompany tunneling through single-family neighborhoods in North Hollywood and Van Nuys.

Encino homeowner leader Gerald A. Silver, who represents a dwindling group of activists opposed to any rail plan, said the report released Wednesday shows that “rail in the Valley would be a boondoggle” and would have a “horribly devastating effect on the complexion and habitability of the Valley.”

He predicted that ridership projections would not be met and that “cost overruns would exceed our worst nightmares.”

COMPARING RAIL ROUTES

CROSS-VALLEY ROUTES

Route Type of system Cost Ridership Southern Pacific rail line* light rail, $1 billion 46,000 at ground level Southern Pacific rail line light rail, $2.4 billion 46,000 in trench Southern Pacific rail line Metro Rail ex- $2.9 billion 58,000 tension, in subway Ventura Freeway** Metro Rail ex- $2.2 billion 53,000 tension, elevated

* follows Chandler and Victory Boulevards from North Hollywood to Warner Center

** from Universal City to Warner Center along freeway’s south shoulder

EAST-VALLEY ROUTES

Route Type of system Cost Ridership Southern Pacific rail line* light rail, $500 million 38,000 at ground level Southern Pacific rail line light rail, $1.2 billion 38,000 in trench Southern Pacific rail line Metro Rail ex- $1.3 billion 49,000 tension, in subway Ventura Freeway** Metro Rail ex- $1.1 billion 37,000 tension, elevated

* follows Chandler and Victory Boulevards from North Hollywood to Sepulveda Basin

** from Universal City to Sepulveda Basin along freeway’s south shoulder

Source: Los Angeles County Transportation Commission