ANALYSIS : Miracle on Grass Out of Question for U.S.

Of the six World Cup soccer groups that were drawn at an elaborate ceremony Saturday in Rome, the United States finds itself in the easiest. However, there is little encouragement in that. The reason that the group is considered the easiest is because the United States is in it.

Immediately upon completion of the draw, Reuters, the British news agency, transmitted the early line for next summer’s World Cup in Italy as quoted by a leading London bookmaker. The United States was listed at 1,500-1.

That gives the United States the distinction as the longest shot of the 24 finalists, even longer than the United Arab Emirates at 1,000-1 and Costa Rica at 750-1. The bookmaker did not disclose the calculations that led him to conclude that Costa Rica has twice as good--or half as bad--a chance to win the World Cup as the United States. The two teams split their qualifying games against each other this year in the North and Central American and Caribbean region.

At least, no one can claim that the United States is overrated.

The almost unprecedented lack of respect the team has been shown might even work to its advantage. While most of the teams will go to Italy on missions to prove that they are the best, the United States can claim a certain amount of satisfaction if it simply proves it is not the worst.

Given its fortuitous selection into Group A in the draw, that might not be an overwhelming assignment. For its three opening-round games, the United States will play Czechoslovakia on June 10 in Florence, Italy on June 14 in Rome and Austria on June 19 in Florence. The two teams with the best records advance along with two teams from each of the other five groups and four wild cards to the second round.

Does the United States have a chance to advance?

Probably not--not even if Diego Maradona is granted U.S. citizenship within the next six months.

Does the United States have a chance to win or at least tie a game?

Yes, considerably better than a 1,500-1 chance.

Italy is the favorite to win the Jules Rimet Trophy as the World Cup champion, but neither Czechoslovakia nor Austria is considered a serious contender. According to the London bookmaker, Czechoslovakia is listed at 33-1 and Austria at 80-1. If not necessarily beatable by the United States, one or the other--most likely Austria--might be tieable . The Americans, tireless on defense but punchless on offense, have more than a passing familiarity with scoreless games.

But before analyzing the teams, perhaps the word fortuitous in connection with the selection process should be examined. Except for the six seeded teams, which were announced Thursday by the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA), the teams were supposed to have their names placed in urns and drawn blindly by actress Sophia Loren to determine the groups.

But more than a few people at the draw commented on the remarkable coincidence of the Americans being chosen to play at the sites where the Italia ’90 organizing committee wanted them. The organizing committee chairman, Luca di Montezemola, said last summer that he preferred Florence and Rome for the United States because those cities would attract more American tourists.

“I realize that there are financial considerations, but, apart from the seeds, everyone else should have been drawn from the same hat,” said the president of Cameroon’s federation, Albert Etotoke Epoune.

It could be that he is disturbed because Cameroon was not selected to play the United States. More likely, he is disturbed because Cameroon was awarded the dubious honor of playing in the tournament’s opening game on June 8 in Milan against defending champion Argentina, which does have Maradona.

That is not quite as difficult a task as the United States will face when it plays Italy before a capacity crowd of 79,571 at Rome’s Olympic Stadium. Because of that game, the United States probably will cancel an exhibition game against the Italians that had been scheduled for March 28 in Palermo, Sicily. Even for the world’s best teams, playing Italy in Italy once can be traumatic enough.

Bluntly speaking immediately after the draw, U.S. Coach Bob Gansler told an Associated Press reporter: “We know we are dead ducks against Italy.”

Later, in a conference call from Rome with U.S. reporters, he said: “I think we can always dream, but that is exactly what it would be. A dream. In Italy, we drew the tournament favorite. Not only are they playing at home, they have some of the world’s best players and the world’s best league.”

Against Czechoslovakia and Austria, however, the United States might be a live duck. It would not be realistic to predict a U.S. victory over either, but stranger things have happened in the World Cup. In 1950, the United States beat England. That is the most recent time that the United States played in the World Cup.

In eight qualifying games, Czechoslovakia had a 5-1-2 record. Its only loss was 2-1 to Belgium, which is seeded fifth in the tournament. But the Czechs need to strengthen their defense at the border. Even though they scored 13 goals--allowing only three--their offense of late has been suspect because of the defections to the West of two forwards, Lubos Kubik and Ivo Knoflicek. In the Czechs’ last game, Portugal played them to a scoreless tie.

Austria is experiencing soccer-mania after its newest national hero, Tony Polster, scored all of the goals in a 3-0 victory over East Germany that clinched the World Cup berth. But until then, the Austrians’ porous defense had allowed more goals than the offense had scored in seven previous qualifying games. They finished with a 3-2-3 record, beating Iceland, Turkey and East Germany. There were numerous roster changes during the year, creating internal turmoil.

Of course, the resumes of both teams sparkle when compared to that of the United States. With an average age of 23, certainly the youngest of the World Cup teams, the Americans did not qualify from perhaps the weakest region until the final day, when they won, 1-0, against Trinidad and Tobago. Of the 24 surviving teams, the United States was ranked in the last tier along with Costa Rica, United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Cameroon and Egypt.

“We were judged to have come to the World Cup to gain experience, and that is very, very accurate,” Gansler said.

The results, he said, will provide a measuring stick of where the United States belongs among the world’s soccer nations.

“We just hope that we can demonstrate that we’ve grown over the last year,” he said. “I hope our guys are not satisfied with just having been invited to the dance. We have come in with the conviction that we can get to the next round. It would be silly to spend all this time qualifying for the world’s most prestigious tournament and then say, ‘We’ve done all we can.’

“We have to do our best, and I believe that our best will surprise a team or two.”

It might be too much to ask that those teams be Czechoslovakia and Austria.