The Outside Horse Has an Inside Chance to Pay

When my daughter, Annette, was 11, I took her to the track to introduce her to the Sport of Kings. She picked out a gray horse in the second race and I bet on it. If it won, I told her, we would split the winnings.

Coming out of the starting gate from the No. 3 post position, the horse took a few steps and then veered to its right, upsetting horses No. 4 and No. 5. Our horse, of course, lost the race. In fact, it ended up last. Even if it had won, it probably would have been disqualified.

We were both disappointed, to say the least. Annette, however, turned to me and astutely said: “You know, Daddy, we should have bet the outside horse. On the outside, it can run freely and not bump into the other horses.”

I stared at her and said: “You may be right.” That week I checked some of my old Racing Forms and discovered that betting the outside horse made a lot of sense.

Although the running of the race depends on the distance, the number of turns and the distance from the gate to the first turn, the outside post position has many advantages.

An outside post position in a sprint and in a route with only one turn--like the one at Hollywood Park--is a definite advantage inasmuch as the inside horses in these races generally get boxed in. Horses with speed, of course, have the best of all worlds in any race inasmuch as they can get to the front immediately. Those without speed can tuck in behind the leader.

In route races, if horses go into the first turn immediately after leaving the starting gate, as is usually the case at mile tracks, the outside horse may get the worst of it as it could be carried or knocked wide while it runs the curve. But if there’s a long run to the first turn, there’s room for the field to string itself out and there’s time for the outside horse to place itself in a good position (second, third or fourth) before reaching that far turn.

The only problem with backing a horse that runs routes from behind, however, is that if it can’t get through the horses in front of it, then it must go wide. If so, it will then run a longer race and exert a lot more energy than the other horses, putting it at a disadvantage when they make their turn and start their move in the stretch.

In any case, Annette’s system turned out to be a simple one. Bet only the horse in the outside post position, no matter how many horses are in the race. What the system will do is come up with varied prices, including some heavy favorites as well as long shots.

At Hollywood Park, there was at least one winner a day from the outside post for 47 days out of 68, and at Santa Anita there was at least one winner a day for 58 days out of 80--a 71% total.

For example, in 1989 at Hollywood Park, backers of the outside post system would have cashed in tickets on Peace Call, $46.40; Barmera, $54.20; Rite Advice, $53.40; Naturally Mitch, $30.60, and Black Duzy, $36.20.

Among the favorites were Henbane, $3; Bruho, $4.60; Slew Jeune Fille, $4.60; A Shade Faster, $3.60; Nu Myoozik, $3.80; Script, $5; Blushing John, $4.60, and Flying H., $4.

Here’s how the system worked. Take the ninth race at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 7 at Santa Anita. It was a $19,000 claimer for 4-year-olds and upward.

Kamp Out in the No. 10 and outside post position was the horse to bet. Chili Hill in the No. 1 post took a 2 3/4-length lead at the quarter-pole while Kamp Out remained far back in the early going. At the three-quarter mark, Kamp Out moved up to fourth as Chili Hill started fading to Impressive Result, which started from the No. 8 post and led into the stretch.

Kamp Out slowly gained on Impressive Result and finally put its head in front at the wire. It paid a hefty $47.80 to win for a $2 wager.

Two other outside post positions also won that day. La Tropicana won by a head and paid $8. A Penny Is A Penny, coming from behind, won easily by 2 1/2 lengths. It paid $9.40.

Total betting for the day’s nine races would have been $18. Winning payoffs amounted to $65.20 and profit for the day was $47.20.

The current Hollywood Park season also continues to be a winning one for outside post system bettors. On Dec. 3, the first race at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds and up saw Equilibre, in the No. 12 hole, race to a head win and pay $44.20 for a $2 wager. That same day, Cheval Volant won from the No. 9 post in a mile race for 2-year-old fillies and paid $52.60. Betting for the day would have come to $18 and profit would have amounted to a tidy $78.80.

In addition to straight wagering, some players, with an eye on the 71% winning percentage, have developed progressive betting systems to take advantage of the number of winners per day. However, as with all such money management plays, there has to be a cutoff point for losses and the player has to start over with lowest bet once a win occurs.

Annette is older now and a much better handicapper. In fact, she wins much more often than I do. However, whenever we go to the track, at least for one race during the nine-race card, she’ll turn to me and say: “Daddy, let’s bet the outside horse.” Usually it’s a long shot. “Sure,” I answer. “Why not?” And who knows? Maybe the darn nag will come in and pay $300!