PRO FOOTBALL : 49ers Have the Guns but They May Not Repeat

The best team might not win the Super Bowl this time. The best is, of course, the San Francisco team that won it a year ago--and NFL champions don’t often repeat. One or two little things that went right for the 49ers last winter are likely to go wrong next month.

“This has become a ‘little-things’ league,” Denver Coach Dan Reeves said. “There are as many big plays as ever, but the competition is so even, top to bottom, that it’s the little things that kill you.”

Every club in pro football can point to a dropped pass, an inopportune penalty, a botched kick, a fumble or blocking breakdown that made the difference in this season of 27-team parity.

The 28th team, San Francisco, has been exempt so far from the parity epidemic. The 49ers are an obvious standout. With quarterback Joe Montana, they remain the team of the 1980s, in which they’ve won three Super Bowls.

But they’ve never won in successive years--even when they had Bill Walsh, the coach who built their present organization.

And as the playoffs start next Sunday with two wild-card games--the Rams at Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh at Houston--the question is whether Montana can do it one more time. He is still making the big plays, but he can’t control all the little things.

Of the NFL’s 10-club lineup in the 1989-90 playoffs, it is possible to make four statements: The five best teams represent the National Conference; any NFC team can beat any AFC entry in the New Orleans Super Bowl Jan 28; the contender with the most momentum is the New York Giants; and the only surprise is Pittsburgh.

The 10 survivors:

1--SAN FRANCISCO (14-2)

The 49ers are distinguished by Joe Montana and by their unusual depth on both offense and defense. It’s more fun to watch Montana than any other NFL player. And the 49ers have more depth than any other NFL team.

The periodicals and news services that have selected the athlete of the decade from other sports, overlooking football, have strangely ignored the way Montana has stood out in one of the most difficult and popular of all sports since 1981, the season of San Francisco’s first of three Super Bowl victories.

Bill Walsh recruited most of the players who form Coach George Seifert’s depth. But the 49ers might not be winning if Walsh had returned. They would have been more vulnerable, in any case, to the no-repeat jinx. Their attitude this year, which could have been, “Look what we did,” is, instead, “We’ll show Walsh that we can do it on our own.”

2--MINNESOTA (10-6)

The Vikings have a larger supply of quality players than probably any other playoff team. And defensively, their coaching is a match for their talent.

But offensive coaches Jerry Burns and Bob Schnelker haven’t been getting the most out of wide receivers Anthony Carter and Hassan Jones, running back Herschel Walker, quarterback Wade Wilson and an offensive line with two Pro Bowl starters, Randall McDaniel and Gary Zimmerman.

In all, the Vikings have sent six players to the Pro Bowl, including defensive tackle Keith Millard, who is perhaps Montana’s only rival for NFL player of the year.

The athletes are a testimonial to Mike Lynn, the Viking general manager who, as a recruiter, hasn’t done as well recruiting coaches.

3--N.Y. GIANTS (12-4)

The Giants won more games this season than anyone else in the NFL except the 49ers. That says something for Coach Bill Parcells and his aces--quarterback Phil Simms and linebacker Lawrence Taylor.

The Giants have two other advantages over much of their opposition:

--With a two-week layoff, they’ll be fresher than the wild-card teams.

--Unlike the Rams and the Eagles, among others, the Giants know what the Super Bowl is like.

Coaches who have directed Super Bowl clubs, as Parcells did three years ago when Simms was the MVP, know how to take advantage of a two-week preparatory period at this time of year.

4--RAMS (11-5)

With the league’s fastest-rising quarterback, Jim Everett, the Rams proved this year that they can handle the 49ers. It’s possible that Coach John Robinson has the only team that can.

On an off-day for the Giants, Air Robinson also handled them .

But as the NFC’s second-ranked wild-card team this year, the Rams are facing nothing but road games in the playoffs.

In December, it isn’t easy to play in Philadelphia. If they win there, they’ll play in New Jersey, which could be colder. If they win there, the next one is at Candlestick Park.

The 49ers, happily for Ram fans, are an AstroTurf team living in the wrong town. They lose a half-step playing on that mushy baseball field. In a Ram-49er rubber game up there, tab the Rams.

5--PHILADELPHIA (11-5)

The Eagles attack opponents with possibly the league’s most efficient front-seven defensive players. What’s more, Buddy Ryan is creating modern defense.

But quarterback Randall Cunningham lost his best receiver, Mike Quick, early. Tight end Keith Jackson was never injury-free. And that put a load on Cunningham that proved too heavy--considering that Philadelphia’s offensive coaches rival Minnesota’s for lack of imagination.

Combined this year, the Eagles, Rams, 49ers and Giants are 14-2 over the AFC.

6--DENVER (11-5)

The Broncos are the only AFC team to win more than nine games. That’s a commentary on the kind of conference they led.

Their edge was a fast start and an underrated coach, Dan Reeves. But even when the Broncos were 6-1 and 10-2, they didn’t always look that good. They kept getting timely breaks.

And they wound up losing three of their last four games.

Defensively, Denver seems to have improved somewhat this season, but quarterback John Elway has been inconsistent, putting too much pressure on his rookie running backs.

Friendly Mile High Stadium should get the the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

7--HOUSTON (9-7)

The Oilers’ talent pool is probably still the largest in the AFC. They don’t have the 49ers’ depth at all positions, but they’re a good match with San Francisco for starting personnel, particularly with grossly underrated quarterback Warren Moon.

Moreover, Jerry Glanville gives Houston sounder coaching than some of his detractors will admit. As Glanville noted this week, he’s still alive, while Cincinnati Coach Sam Wyche, a sworn enemy, has already packed it in.

Too often, even so, something seems to be amiss with the Oilers, who are the living personification of the up-one-week-down-the-next-week NFL this year.

8--CLEVELAND (9-6-1)

The Browns won the AFC Central three times in the last four years, first with Marty Schottenheimer, who has moved on to Kansas City, and now with another defensive expert, Bud Carson.

They win with the two essentials for success in football, defense and quarterbacking. Often injured, Bernie Kosar comes back to throw long, straight passes.

9--BUFFALO (9-7)

Quarterback Jim Kelly is suddenly getting picked on all over the country. A television commentator says Kelly telegraphs his passes. In Houston, they say he has gone downhill from his days in the USFL. In Buffalo, they wonder if his teammates like him any more.

Chances are, Kelly was slightly overrated in the USFL--where he was a run-and-shoot passer several years ago.

The Bills’ problem isn’t so much Kelly as it is defensive second-stringers replacing injured starters.

10--PITTSBURGH (9-7)

The Steelers got off to the NFL’s worst start this year when they were routed in their first two games, 51-0 and 41-10.

Pittsburgh won five of its last six as Chuck Noll, after a long absence, arose to become a candidate again for coach of the year.

The quarterback matchup in Houston: Moon vs. Bubby Brister. The coaching matchup: Glanville vs. Noll, who in the Astrodome not long ago was seen, and heard, angrily berating Glanville for coaching the Oilers to hit late.