Future Shock Gets Out of Hand

If the amazing world events currently unfolding were a prize fight, the referee would probably stop it. History is throwing too much at us right now. Even the resilient Mikhail Gorbachev sometimes seems to reel from it all. People feel as if they’re on the ropes, hoping that the bell will ring to bring each new round of action to a merciful end.

Consider that German reunification may not be far off, and might even occur this year. Had anyone three months ago predicted a marriage of East and West Germany any time in the foreseeable future, he’d have been thought at best a hopeless German romantic. And now several Eastern European countries have either outlawed or declawed the Communist Party and Mother Russia has voted to deny the party its monopoly grip on power. What’s next? Anybody’s guess.

It’s not easy to be a visionary these days. Meteorology seems a safer profession than political prognostication. It’s true that the Albanian Communist Party is still hanging tough and Fidel Castro is still a true believer in communism and Catholics and Protestants are still killing each other in Northern Ireland. Some things, it seems, never change. But after what seems like centuries in a South African prison, Nelson Mandela is likely to be getting out soon, the armies of Europe aren’t sure who the enemy is anymore and Tokyo, once the staunchest U.S. ally, is beginning to worry many Americans at least as much as Moscow.

All change is inherently threatening, and a lot of change is very hard to take. Worse yet, hopes are so high about demilitarization in Europe and an end to the Cold War that there will be a tremendous collective emotional letdown if events reverse themselves and the world goes back to square one--or returns to worse.

But probably there’s little we can do about any of this. Consider the debate now going on in Washington and Moscow as to whether to support German unity or to stick with the tried-and-true: a divided Germany that, after all, has helped keep the peace in Europe for 45 years. How much control do the superpowers really have over reunification? The truth is that history keeps on happening whether we like it or not. And apparently it’s not going to slow down for anyone. It can put even superpowers in their place.